826
FXUS63 KGRB 101907
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
107 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A pattern change bringing above normal temperatures is expected
 beginning Thursday and continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwest winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning
may produce light lake effect snow across far north-central WI
through this evening, but expect any accumulation to be minimal.
High pressure building over the northern Plains will then slide east
dominating the region through the end of the work week. LREF mean
500mb flow does show a subtle short-wave over the Upper Mississippi
Valley Thursday which does bring a ~10% for light snow to central WI
Thursday morning, however, the better chances for accumulating snow
are further west along the WI/MN and WI/IA borders. Another low-end
10-15% chance for light precipitation comes Sunday as a low
develops over the southern CONUS.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer than normal Thursday and by
this weekend there is a 50-80% chance for highs above 40 degrees.
There is a 30-50% chance that areas south of HWY 29 reach 50 degrees
by early next week. The warming trend will lead to a quickly melting
snowpack and deteriorating ice conditions which does raise the concern
for ice jams next week. Additionally the melting snowpack will lead to
an increase in low-level moisture increasing the possibility of
periods of fog this weekend and next week.

Long-range ensembles and ML models are showing early signals for a
more widespread precipitation event during the early part of next
week. Forecast soundings have a large spread in temperatures at this
time making it very uncertain if this would be a snow, rain, or
wintry mix even.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1111 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Blanket MVFR status continues over the entire region late this
morning. Conditions will likely remain MVFR through much of the
afternoon and evening with periods of VFR cigs possible across east-
central WI as status hovers right around 3kft. Downsloping winds
should help to scatter out status across eastern WI Wednesday
morning while MVFR will linger longer across central and northern WI
before clearing out late Wednesday morning.

NW surface winds will gusts 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds will
gradually ease below 20 knots overnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion