341
FXUS63 KGRB 270513
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool with scattered snow showers and flurries Friday.

- Active much of next week with multiple opportunities for
  precipitation, including thunder, snow, ice.

- Some rivers remain above bankfull into the weekend. Potential
  for at least minor flooding may increase next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

RAP analysis shows a narrow band of 700mb f-gen across northern WI
which is continuing to drive a band of light rain. Surface
temperatures across Vilas and northern Door counties have cooled
below freezing as of 18Z, so there may be areas where rain has
transitions to a wintry mix, but with road temperatures well above
freezing don`t expect any impactful accumulations. Another area of
rain is starting to develop just south and west of the Fox Valley in
association with an upper right rear jet quadrant. As the upper jet
continues to shift east this afternoon these showers will likely
spread into east-central WI bringing another round of light to
moderate rain. Rain should come to an end this evening across the
region as a cold front shoves the southward.

Behind the cold front a CAA regime will bring cooler air to the
region for Friday. A subtle short-wave along with steepening low-
level lapse rates will bring scattered snow showers Friday during
the late morning and afternoon. Accumulations of up to 0.5" are
possible on grassy surfaces with minimal accumulations expected on
pavement. Main impact will be periods of reduced visibility.

After a cool start Saturday morning, temperatures slowly moderate
Saturday afternoon, then begin to surge upward on Sunday as region
gets into return flow. Highs Sunday and Monday will reach the 60s
away from any bay or lake cooling.

Precipitation begins to work into the western Great Lakes region
late Monday into Monday night on leading edge of developing troughing
over western CONUS that will push stronger mid-level wind energy
into the central CONUS and eventually downstream over the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley. Warm front well to the south to start the
week, so wintry mix of rain/snow Monday night into Tuesday is now
shown for more of the area than just the Northwoods. There are
model differences though, so this will bear watching. Warm front
makes it farther north by Tuesday/Tuesday night and this is when
chances for thunder and locally heavy rain are maximizing at this
point. Also, still enough cold air over the north for the potential
for rain, freezing rain and snow. Whether there will be a break
mid to late week behind this initial salvo of systems, or will the
systems keep coming to end the week is still uncertain. Plenty of
time to assess the details and trends, but overall looks like a
pretty active pattern is shaping up for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions through the TAF period. Skies have
cleared across the north late this evening, with lingering clouds
from central to east-central WI. However, most places were VFR as
low clouds had scattered out.

Dry conditions will prevail overnight. Scattered snow showers
develop in association with a fast- moving shortwave late Friday
morning and afternoon. Brief reductions to MVFR vsbys may occur
within any snow showers, but confidence and timing at any TAF site
was too low to include in this TAF issuance.

Winds...Gusty north winds continue through early tonight and then
subside into Friday morning. W/NW winds increase again midday
Friday, with gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Several rivers will remain above bankfull through this weekend due
to the recent melting snow along with the 0.25 to 0.60" of rain that
fell today. Additionally, we will need to keep eye on active pattern
that could develop next week. If stronger thunderstorms and heavy
rain end up occurring, potential for at least minor flooding would
further increase on many rivers, especially as many northern areas
will still have snow cover at that point.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......KLJ
HYDROLOGY......GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion