528
FXUS63 KGRB 081906
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
206 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected this weekend
  with inland high temperatures into the upper 70s to middle 80s.

- Breezy and persistent southerly winds will drive up waves on
  Lake Michigan this weekend creating hazardous boating
  conditions.

- Rain shower chances of 40 to 50 percent return for Monday
  afternoon through Monday night. Cooler more seasonal
  temperatures in the 50s and 60s will follow for Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Rest of today through Friday: Dry and breeze conditions will
continue through this afternoon. Northwesterly winds will quickly
diminish this evening as the PBL decouples. With light winds tonight
patchy areas of frost are possible across northern WI overnight with
low temperatures falling into the middle 30s. No Frost Advisory
will be issued for tonight as the growing season has ended across
northern WI. Frost/Freeze headlines will resume for those areas
after spring green up.

Friday will be another quiet weather day as high pressure continues
to dominate the region. There is a low-end 10-15% chance that a
stray shower or two could develop late Friday afternoon over east-
central WI as isentropic ascent overspreads the region. Winds will
also veer around to the southeast Friday with peak gusts around 20-
25mph during afternoon and evening


Unseasonable Weekend Heat And Strong Winds:
As surface high pressure shifts to the East Coast, an intense
upper-level ridge will build across the western Great Lakes,
triggering robust southerly return flow. Daytime high temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday will climb into the upper 70s to middles 80s
across inland Wisconsin, approaching daily record high values at
some locations. Tightening regional pressure gradients will drive
gusty southerly winds of 30 to 40 mph, with NBM probabilistic
guidance indicating a 40 to 60 percent probability of gusts
exceeding 35 mph on Saturday.

Early Week Cold Front And Cool Down: A cold front associated with a
northern stream trough will traverse Wisconsin Monday. Rain chances
remain on track to develop post frontal on Monday afternoon through
Monday night. Mid-level frontogenesis will increase 24-hour
precipitation probabilities to 40 to 50 percent area-wide, though
dynamic forcing remains progressive. NBM probabilistic guidance
indicates a 20 to 35 percent (highest north of HWY 29) chance of 24-
hour liquid accumulations exceeding 0.25 inches, with expected
rainfall totals generally under a quarter inch. Post-frontal cold
air advection will usher in a significantly cooler airmass for
Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping daytime high temperatures back into
the mid-50s to low 60s under partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. SCT high cirrus
clouds will continue to pass over the region through the period. A
SCT to BKN cu field, based around 5-6kft, is developing over
northern WI early this afternoon and will linger into this evening
before scattering out. West-northwest winds will gust up to 20-25
kts this afternoon with winds diminish with the loss of heating
around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Southerly winds are forecast to increase Friday and remain strong
and gusty through the weekend. Waves are expected to build to 4-8 ft
on Lake Michigan from Friday afternoon through Saturday night. South
winds to 30 kts are possible on Saturday and Saturday night. Small
craft advisories will be required from Friday night through Saturday
night, and perhaps on Sunday as well.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK
MARINE.........GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion