754
FXUS63 KGRB 101730
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy conditions are expected this weekend, with inland
  temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Record or
  near-record highs will be possible today and Sunday.

- There is a 60 to 80% percent chance for light rain across the
  region Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. A couple rumbles
  of thunder will also be possible.

- Chances for more widespread soaking precip possible late next
  week, with much cooler temperatures arriving next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As mid clouds continue to scatter out and WAA increases, temperatures
have been allowed to warm into the mid to upper 70s inland of
Lake Michigan early this afternoon. This already puts several
locations within a few degrees of record highs, with several
hours of heating and deep mixing still on tap. As such, expect
that at least a couple of records will be broken by late this
afternoon. Otherwise, southerly winds continue to ramp up ahead of
approaching low pressure to the west, with obs currently showing
gusts to around 20 to 25 mph. Expect gusts to increase to around
30 mph over the next few hours. Winds then decrease late tonight
as the pressure gradient loosens up.

Though a couple degrees cooler than today, high temperatures for
tomorrow are still set to read in the upper 70s to low 80s away
from the Lake. Albeit not as widespread, a couple locations still
flag for record highs during this time.

Rain chances... Light rain still looks on track to arrive late
Monday afternoon as transient shortwave and weak low pressure
traverse the upper Mississippi Valley. Current setup has a high
PoP (60 to 80%) low QPF look to it, as the parent airmass doesn`t
look particularly moist. As such, NBM probabilistic guidance only
shows a 30 to 50% chance for receiving 0.25" of rain through
Tuesday morning. A rumble or two of thunder wouldn`t be out of the
question Monday evening as meager instability (~500 to 600 J/kg
MUCAPE) builds along the front, though any convective activity
would remain elevated with little to no impacts.

Next chances for widespread soaking precip arrive toward the end
of next week as a deepening surface low and closed upper trough
track from the central Plains into the Midwest. System currently has
a very winter-like appearance to it, especially with potential
phasing scenario at play if we are to believe the more aggressive
LREF ensemble clusters. However, there is still a lot of
variability this far out in the forecast period, so will continue
to monitor throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Mid clouds have scattered out early this afternoon, leaving sunny
skies across the forecast area. Mostly clear skies and VFR flying
conditions then prevail throughout the TAF period.

Main concerns to aviation during this TAF cycle will center around
gusty surface winds this afternoon, followed by LLWS concerns this
evening and overnight. Obs show widespread gusts between 20 and
25 knots early this afternoon, which should increase to around 30
knots mainly over the central Wisconsin sites over the next
couple of hours. Winds then subside this evening, giving way to
LLWS concerns after 00Z as 850 mb winds increase to around 40 to
50 knots. LLWS then comes to an end from southeast to northwest
late Sunday morning as 850 mb jet lifts to the north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Strong southerly winds will continue to result in conditions
hazardous to small craft on the Bay and Lake through Sunday
morning. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots, with a few
gale force gusts within the realm of possibility. Current HREF
probabilities for 10 meter wind gusts over 39 mph are 60 to 80%
through tonight, highest near Death`s Door. As such, will retain
gale wording in the current marine headlines. Waves will build 2
to 4 ft on the Bay and 6 to 9 ft on the Lake during this time.
Winds and waves then subside Sunday morning as gradient winds ease
up.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures are shown below for
Saturday, October 10, and Sunday, October 11.

High Temperatures for today, October 10th:

              Record             Forecast
Green Bay:    82/1938               82
Wausau:       82/1928,1930,1938     83
Rhinelander:  81/1938               82
Appleton:     79/1963               80

High Temperatures for Sunday, October 11th:

              Record             Forecast
Green Bay:    83/2024               79
Wausau:       81/1928               81
Rhinelander:  81/1910,1928          81
Appleton:     82/1928,2024          78.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Goodin
MARINE.........Goodin
CLIMATE........Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion