493
FXUS63 KGRB 301841
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
141 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty light rain and sprinkles (20-60% chances) for Halloween.
  Rainfall amounts less than 0.10 inch.

- Unsettled conditions much of next week, with widespread showers
  (70-95%) and gusty winds Monday afternoon through Wednesday,
  peaking Monday night into Election Day. Shower chances lingers
  into Thursday.

- The probability of 48-hour rainfall totals over 1" from Monday
  afternoon through Wednesday afternoon range from 60-75% north
  and west of the Fox Valley to 40-60% over Fox Valley east to
  Lake Michigan.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dry conditions will continue this afternoon into tonight as high
pressure slides across the Great Lakes, but clouds to thicken and
lower this evening and especially overnight into Saturday morning.
As moisture increases and weak low pressure arrives, chances for
showers and sprinkles will increase on Saturday. Have kept PoPs in
the 20-60% range as coverage looks somewhat limited do to some
dry air at the surface to overcome, especially as you work into
eastern WI. Highest chances will be in the afternoon or early
evening. Amounts will be on the light side, under 0.10". The
chances linger into Saturday night, then dry conditions return on
Sunday.

A slow moving, moisture-laden system arrives Monday afternoon/
evening and sticks around into at least Thursday. Rain is likely
Monday night into Tuesday (70-95%) with the initial surge of
moisture and forcing. Then chance/likely PoPs will continue into
Wednesday, then taper off on Thursday as the system finally exits
to our east. Chances for exceeding 0.50 inch rain Monday Night
through Tuesday are 70-90% with chances for exceeding 1.00 inch
between 60-75% northwest of the Fox Valley, and 40-60% over east-
central WI. Higher end projections take rainfall to 1.5 to 2.25
inches. Certainly looking like a soaking rain at times. Some
elevated instability and impressive dynamics with the initial WAA
surge Monday night to include some thunder, especially across
central and north-central WI.

After a day with closer to normal temps, we trend back above
normal into the weekend, with highs on Halloween mainly in the 50s
and in the low to mid 60s on Sunday through Wednesday. Temps cool
off behind the large system at the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with mid and high
clouds spreading across the region, generally above 9 kft.
Ceilings start lowering after 06Z Saturday as a storm system over
the central Plains moves closer to the region. MVFR ceilings will
begin to move into central WI by ~12Z, but sub 3 kft ceilings
don`t look to arrive at AUW/CWA until after 18Z Sat. Patchy light
rain and sprinkles will also be possible on Saturday, but no
impacts to ceilings/visibilities are expected.

Light and variable winds generally under 5 kts will continue this
afternoon into tonight. Winds will become south/southeast on
Saturday at 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A slow moving low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes
Monday night into Wednesday morning, bringing gusty south to
southeast winds and large waves on the bay and Lake Michigan. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Winds will shift to
the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to near 25 kts as the
system departs to the east.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Bersch
MARINE.........Bersch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion