840
FXUS63 KGRB 261838
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
138 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an
  end late this afternoon or early this evening.

- Some of the stronger showers and storms this afternoon could
  produce wind gusts to 40-45 mph and brief heavy rain.

- Next chance of showers and storms arrive Friday night and
  Saturday, and then continue into early next week. Details are
  still murky when the best chances of rain would occur and if
  there would be the potential for stronger storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were occurring across
northern WI and Upper Michigan this afternoon. The scattered
showers and storms will continue for much of the rest of the
afternoon, with a gradual southward progression of the rain
during the latter half of the afternoon. Based on model
soundings, inverted V structure in the low levels of the sounding
would suggest gusty winds to 40-45 mph are still possible with
the stronger showers and storms along with brief heavy rain.
Any lingering rain should end early this evening with clearing
skies during the night with lows mainly in the 50s with 60s along
the bay and Lake Michigan.

Dry conditions should prevail on Thursday. The only concern is a
backdoor front will move across northeast Wisconsin during the
afternoon where that may be the focus for an isolated shower or
storm. Dr conditions prevail on Friday. The forecast becomes
muddled late Friday night through the weekend. There appears there
will be a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend
into early next week. This would be good news to help alleviate
the drought across our area. Latest model runs suggest the first
round of showers and would arrive late Friday night into Saturday.
There is a lot of questions in where convection would set up as
the ECMWF/Canadian model support convection mainly across the
north through Saturday afternoon. The GFS/NAM were further south.
The uncertainties then persist through the rest of the weekend
into the middle of next week. It is hard to quantify the severe
weather risk due to the differences in the model output this far
out. Potential for heavy rain is there with the few rounds of
storms.

For temperatures, a cool night is in store across the north
Thursday morning with lows in the 40s. Otherwise, temperatures
should rise to above normal levels over the weekend into the first
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
the area this afternoon. Some of the stronger showers and storms
could produce wind gusts to around 35 knots and small hail.
Areas of MVFR CIGS outside the showers and storms early this
afternoon will rise into the VFR category. Any rain should end
early this evening. Skies will become mostly clear during the
evening while the gusty west to northwest winds will subside
around sunset. Fair weather cumulus clouds expected develop
between 15 and 18z Thursday, generally from 2,500 to 3,500 feet.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion