082
FXUS63 KGRB 062312
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
612 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy south-southwest winds gusting to 30 kts will keep
  hazardous marine conditions in place through early Wednesday
  morning.

- Patchy frost will be possible over northern Wisconsin Thursday
  night into Friday morning with low temperatures in the mid 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Rest of today...Largely quiet conditions are expected today,
apart from some strong wind gusts. The fairly tight pressure
gradient across the region will continue to bring gusts up to 25
to 30 mph to the surface this afternoon and evening before winds
shift westwards overnight. Will likely still see sufficient gusts
overnight to keep any fog from forming, so the quiet conditions
will extend into the end of the work week.

Rest of the forecast...
Thursday and Friday afternoon may see a brief period to monitor
for fire weather as relative humidity readings are expected to
drop towards the lower to middle 30s. Fortunately winds will be
lower during this period so overall impacts are expected to be low
at this time.

Frost may make a return to the forecast Friday morning, but
guidance has become more pessimistic on this occurrence, with
probability of dropping below 37 degrees largely limited to a
small section of northeast Wisconsin to around 15%. The changes
are largely a result of an increase in cloud cover and winds
shifting southwestwards overnight.

Active weather will remain scarce in the forecast, but a few stray
showers may move through the region Friday evening as a weak
shortwave cross the area. Lack of moisture will largely inhibit
much in the way of measurable moisture for this initial event.
Quiet weather then largely continues through the weekend as a high
amplitude ridge sets up over eastern CONUS. Expect a strong
southwesterly push of warmer air, which could bring portions of
the area back into the upper 70s to lower 80s for a couple of
days.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR flight conditions are expected through the TAF period, but
both gusty surface winds and low level wind shear will pose non-
optimal flying conditions at times.

Gusty southwest surface winds will be subsiding rapidly by the
start of the 00z TAF period, but low level wind shear will develop
as surface winds decouple. The LLWS should continue until 03-05Z
before diminishing. A cold front will bring a wind shift to the
west-northwest after midnight.

Surface west winds are expected to become gusty on Wednesday,
mainly during the afternoon. The highest gusts will be found
across far northern WI (KRHI) where peak gusts will likely range
from 25-30 kts. Gusts 20 to 25 kts are likely further south.

Otherwise, mid and high clouds above 10 kft will be present at
times through the taf period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Strong winds will persist through the afternoon before subsiding
this afternoon with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots at times. Gale
force gusts continue to be unlikely, so an upgrade to a Gale
Warning is not expected. Winds and waves will subside on the Bay
mid- evening, and subside on the nearshore waters gradually after
midnight. No changes were made to the Small Craft Advisories in
effect.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........Uhlmann

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion