488
FXUS63 KGRB 060437
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1037 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Upstream radar returns have begun to increase both in coverage
and intensity over the MN Arrowhead and northwest WI. Surface obs
are reporting a mix of drizzle and rimed snow, which aligns with
the latest RAP analysis showing a warm nose over eastern MN and
western WI. Expectation is that precipitation will become all
snow as it approaches the I-39/US-51 corridor with RAP analysis
snowing the entire column below freezing and surface
temperatures. in the upper 20s. Max reflectivity values from KDLH
are ~35-37dbz which would likely correlate to visibility
reductions to to 1/4-1/2 mile for brief, 10-20 minute, periods.
These conditions are expected to arrive into northern and central
WI between 9-10PM and continue east overnight. Motorists should
be prepared to encounter rapidly changing road conditions
tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow with a little freezing drizzle is expected overnight
  into Friday morning, making for slippery spots on the morning
  commute. Probability of getting 1" of snow ranges from 5-30%.

- Cooler Friday afternoon through Saturday, followed by an above
  normal temperature trend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A pause in any snow this afternoon as northeast Wisconsin sits in
between two mid-level shortwaves. Wave over southern Manitoba
quickly heads southeast this evening, moving across Wisconsin
tonight into Friday morning. Wave coincides with LFQ of upper jet,
helping to bring additional lift. While the period of lift is
decent, somewhat limited moisture and the quick movement of this
wave will result in low snowfall totals. Forecasting around 0.5"
for most places. NBM probabilities for at least an inch range from
15-30% in far north-central WI, and south of Hwy 29; elsewhere,
probabilities are even lower. Forecast soundings show moisture
getting stripped out of the DGZ as precip ends early Friday
morning, which would indicate a brief window for freezing
rain/drizzle. However, expect any impacts from freezing precip to
be minimal given it will be falling on fresh snow/already slippery
roads. The best potential for any freezing precip is in central
WI.

Precip wraps up mid-morning Friday (by ~14-15Z), with some light
lake effect snow or flurries in far north-central WI lingering
into the afternoon.

Meanwhile, temperatures Friday will initially be mild in the upper
20s and low 30s, but a cold front following the snow will usher in
cooler air and gusty NW winds. Expect temperatures to drop
throughout the late morning and afternoon. A colder day on
Saturday, with morning lows ranging from 5 above to 10 below, and
highs mainly in the teens. Temperatures start to rebound on
Sunday, with readings at or above normal likely through the rest
of the week.

There is a small chance (~20%) for light snow Saturday night.
After that, the next time to watch for any precip is next
Wednesday and Thursday, but specifics are not well defined this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1037 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Snow showers have begun to push into central and northern WI
bringing periods of MVFR/IFR vsbys (1-3SM). Where the snow has
arrived MVFR status has scattered our with cigs becoming VFR. Expect
this rise in cigs to be brief as MVFR cigs are being observed just
upstream over northwest WI. Snow will continue to spread east across
the region overnight before coming to an end around 12-14Z Friday
morning. Patchy areas of freezing drizzle may linger into the mid-
morning, mainly across central WI. Flying conditions will begin to
improve Friday afternoon as cigs scatter out and VFR conditions
return.

West winds around 5-10 kts through tonight, veering NW and gusting
to 20-30 kts on Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........GK
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion