765
FXUS63 KGRB 191737
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1237 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry this week. Next smaller chances for rain (15-25%) not until
  this weekend.

- Temperatures remain above average until further notice. 30-50%
  chance of highs over 70 Thursday through the weekend, with
  central WI seeing the greatest potential.

- Late night, early morning fog possible this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Dry this week with small chance (15-25%) of showers this weekend...
Higher heights aloft, especially late this week, along with general
high pressure leads to dry weather this week. Sharper trough does
deflect off the ridge this weekend, but main lift with this passes
well to the north. May see a few showers over the north Saturday
night, but it could easily end up staying dry given this pattern
and trends. Lower heights early next week and a frontal boundary
overhead may spur on a few showers, but again, not great chances.

Fog Potential...High pressure prevailing combined with nighttime
cooling and light winds will result in the potential for at least
patchy ground fog each night/morning through early Thursday morning.
Patchy dense fog could occur.

Temperatures...Above normal temperatures will be with us until
further notice. Bar on this is getting lower though, as average
highs by this weekend (last full weekend of October) are in the
low to mid 50s. We`ll easily be above that mark and NBM indicates
30-50% chance of seeing over 70 for especially central WI Thursday
through Sunday. Other than tonight and early next week, when lows
could drop into the 30s north, overnight lows will also be above
normal, mostly in the 40s. Other than a couple brief exceptions,
longer range guidance (ECMWF-AIFS and CFS) keeps the warmer and
drier trend going into November which matches the latest Week
3-4 outlook from CPC.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some guidance
is more aggressive with IFR/MVFR stratus developing late tonight
central to east-central into Tuesday morning, but there was not
enough confidence to include other than a FEW mention as some
guidance is too dry for this.

Winds will be light less than 10 kts through the period, marking
a bigger change from what occurred over the weekend.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion