368
FXUS63 KGRB 140531
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1231 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers (50 to 80% chance) arrive Thursday afternoon,
  continuing at times through Friday. Expect most areas to see
  between 0.25 and 0.5" of total rainfall.

- Northwest winds increase on Friday, with gusts between 35 and 45
  mph possible. Gale force gusts expected across marine zones.

- A widespread frost/freeze event is expected Friday night into
  early Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Precip chances... Radar continues to show weak returns percolating
over the forecast area late this evening as transient shortwave
energy passes over the area. However, absence of low level
forcing and dry pocket between around 850 and 650 mb should keep
QPF amounts light. Prominent subsidence inversion will then keep
low stratus around through most of the afternoon on Wednesday.

Ensembles continue to hone in on phasing system Thursday into
Friday, with guidance showing northern and southern stream lows
merging over the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday morning.
Models generate light rain over central Wisconsin beginning early
Tuesday afternoon as northward moisture transport brings PWATs
to near 90th percentile (1.25 to 1.5"), with rain coverage
spanning the entire forecast area by late in the afternoon. Signs
point toward a soaking rainfall for most of northeast Wisconsin,
with NBM probabilities showing a 40 to 70% signal for 0.5" of QPF
along/south of the Hwy 29 corridor. Wrap around showers then
continue through Friday, though how long they do will likely
depend on whether phasing occurs directly overhead or further
east. Latest suite of model runs have backed off on light snow
potential across the far north on Friday, though a few flakes
may mix in at times as 850 mb temps fall below 0C and robust
northwest flow kicks in.

Winds... Pressure gradient tightens up along the back edge of the
departing surface low Thursday night into Friday, putting us
under robust northwest flow regime. Combination of deep mixing and
strong CAA will allow for transport of near 50 knot winds at 850
mb down to the surface, resulting in potential (30 to 60%) for
gusts to 40 mph across the forecast area, highest along the
lakeshore. As such, pretty slam dunk that marine hazards will be
needed during this time, as NBM shows healthy signal (60 to 90%)
for gale force gusts over all marine zones.

Temperatures... Arctic high slides south Friday into Saturday,
bringing a brief spell of well below normal temperatures and
increased potential for frost/freeze. As highs struggle to make it
into the 50s for some areas Friday afternoon, Friday night lows
are forecast to plummet into the mid 20s to low 30s inland of Lake
Michigan as skies clear out and winds decouple. As such, expect
that frost/freeze headlines will be needed in the coming days.
Return flow then quickly sets up over the weekend, resulting in
high temperatures rebounding into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGS across northern Wisconsin is expected to sag
southward overnight and linger into Wednesday morning before
lifting back into the VFR category by mid to late morning. Looking
ahead, rain is expected on Thursday and strong northwest winds
gusting to 30 to 40 knots are possible on Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion