818
FXUS63 KGRB 050434
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1034 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First round of light snow and the potential for freezing drizzle
  is expected late tonight into Thursday morning. Probabilities of
  1" of snow is 30-60% north of a Tomahawk to Manitowoc line,
  highest across north-central WI.

- Second round of light snow is expected late Thursday night into
  Friday morning, potentially ending as freezing drizzle. Highest
  snowfall totals across north-central and far northeast WI.

- Temperatures to trend above normal Thursday into Friday morning,
  before gusty northerly winds behind a clipper system will result
  in falling temperatures during the day Friday.

- Another clipper system will bring another chance (20-40%) of
  light snow Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Two rounds of light snow will move across the area from late
tonight into Friday morning. Skies will start out mostly clear
across the area this evening, but clouds will be on the increase
through the night. The chances of light snow arrive after 06z
tonight, especially in the 09z-12z time frame for locations north
and west of the Fox Valley, and then overspread the rest of the
area Thursday morning. The precipitation is in response to 850mb
warm advection. There are still some issues with dry air that may
impact snowfall totals, but most locations should see around an
inch or less. Lowest snowfall totals across central WI. As the
snow tapers off, there appears there will be a small window for
some patchy freezing drizzle.

The next round of snow (40-70% chance) and potential for freezing
drizzle (20-40% chance) will be on Thursday night into Friday
morning as upper level energy and cold front move across the
region. This feature will bring a round of snow with
accumulations around an inch or less, with highest totals over
northeast WI. Behind the system, gusty northwest winds will be
experienced. Based on latest numerical guidance, bumped up winds
on Friday. A few gale force gusts are possible near Deaths Door in
northern Door County. Along with the gusty winds, morning
temperatures in the upper 20s to middle 30s will fall into the
single digits and teens by early evening. This arctic blast will
be nothing like the last one over the past weekend, and will be of
short duration. High temperatures rebound into the 20s to around
30 Sunday, with above normal temperatures next week with highs in
the 30s and possibly Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1034 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR status deck has continue to push east this evening with the
leading edge now along a Y50 to MNM line. The MVFR/low end VFR cigs
will continue to spread east and blanket the entire region overnight.

Early Thursday morning a round of snow will begin to push into north-
central WI bring periods of IFR/MVFR vsbys. Snow is expected to
reach RHI around 10-11Z and will quickly spread to the rest of the
TAF sites. This round of snow should be fairly brief, 4-5 hours of
light snow at any given location, however, behind the snow a period
of freezing drizzle may linger into the early afternoon.  Cigs
during the snow should primarily remain MVFR, however, periods of
IFR cigs are possible at RHI, AUW, and CWA.

Precipitation will clear out for a period Thursday evening with
another round of light snow expected Thursday night into Friday as
a cold front moves across the region.

Winds will be light out of the southwest overnight. Thursday winds
veer around to the west during the day with gusts increase to 15-
20kt during the afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion