901
FXUS63 KGRB 220513
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1113 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off light snow will continue through Thursday.
  Accumulations will be less than 1 inch, with temporary
  visibility drops and slippery stretches on roads the main
  impacts.

- And Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for Thursday night and
  Friday morning, as there is a nearly 100% chance of seeing wind
  chills of 30 below or colder.

- The coldest of the air departs Saturday, but temperatures remain
  below normal into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light snow...There wasn`t much of a break in the light snow today
(at least when looking at the area as a whole, as supposed to a
specific point), as bits of shortwave energy circle around an
upper low in Ontario. Overall moisture and lift remain limited,
but based on time sections and upstream obs will continue to see
on/off light snow through this evening. Impacts will be minimal,
with occasional visibility drops to around 1-2 miles and patchy
slick spots on roads. An additional wave comes through midday
Thursday, leading to another uptick in light snow/flurries. Expect
impacts and amounts (a couple tenths) to be similar. More CAMs
have started to depict the Thursday snow, so increased PoPs to a
blanket 20% area-wide. This might need to be raised a bit if these
become more widespread or robust. In addition, west winds will
gust to 20-30 mph tomorrow, bringing about a chance (~20-30%) for
some patchy blowing and drifting snow, but do not expect major
blowing snow issues as there isn`t much new snow to work with. But
the shallow snow blowing over cold roads could be another
mechanism to create slippery spots.

Cold...The main headline remains the upcoming surge of cold
weather. This has been a very consistent signal for days, so
confidence remains high. The Extreme Cold Watch was upgraded to an
Extreme Cold Warning for the entire area from 12AM to 1PM Friday.
Wind chills of 30 to 45 below are likely area wide, and central
and north-central WI have a 10-40% chance of dipping down to 50
below. The Watch remains in effect from 1PM Friday to Noon
Saturday, as there is a little less certainty of temps or wind
chills reaching warning criteria (30 below in the east, 35 below
in the west). Regardless, it will remain dangerously cold through
Saturday morning. Despite the cold, it does not look like many
records will be broken. The best place to see any records broken
is for record low max temps on Friday. The records at Antigo and
Wausau are -6, and the current forecast call for a high around
-10.

Beyond Saturday, temps and wind chills look to stay away from
headline criteria, but still remain well below normal for late
January. Wind chills will struggle to get above zero into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A brief period of MVFR cigs/vsbys and light snow will be over the
east-central WI TAF sites at the start of this TAF period, but
will exit by 09z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through early Thursday morning before another round of light snow
or flurries arrives at AUW/CWA/RHI TAF sites around 13z and around
15z at ATW/GRB/MTW. These light snow showers or flurries will
bring MVFR cigs at all TAF sites, with the potential for IFR vsbys
at AUW/CWA/RHI. While conditions return to VFR at the east-central
WI TAF sites for Thursday afternoon/evening, the MVFR cigs will
continue through Thursday afternoon at AUW/CWA/RHI.

Westerly winds are expected through much of the TAF period, with
periods of gusts to 20-30 kts. Winds turn northwesterly Thursday
evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Thursday night to 1 PM CST
Friday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-
073-074.

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
morning for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-
073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Kruk

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion