275
FXUS63 KGRB 241134
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
534 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect this morning. Wind chills
  around 20 to 40 below zero continue this morning.

- The coldest of the air departs Sunday; however, temperatures
  remain well below normal into next week with winds chills below
  zero most of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed
  tonight and again Sunday night.

- Mainly dry through next week, with only small chances for light
  snow early-mid next week, especially in northern WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Bitterly Cold Temps & Wind Chills This Morning Into Next Week:

Airport and mesonet site air temps and wind chills early this
morning as of 3 AM ranged from -20 to -40F. Winds were mainly
under 7 kts, with several locations reporting calm conditions. As
expected, locations are teetering on the edge of Extreme Cold
Warning and Cold Weather Advisory criteria, with just a couple/
three kts of wind pushing sites over warning criteria. Similar
conditions will continue early this morning. So with most sites
at/near threshold with the wind chill or actual air temp or just a
little puff of wind away from hitting criteria, prefer not to
downgrade any of our counties and keep the Extreme Cold Warning
going. The 15z end time should work for most/all locations
dropping below advisory criteria, with a site or two possibly
experiencing advisory conditions for an additional hour or two,
mainly over the far north/east. Bottom line, the dangerous/bitterly
cold air and/or wind chills will continue this morning with wind
chill values of -20 to -40F.

For tonight, another very cold night is on tap with lows expected
to drop into the single digits to mid 20s below zero. Wind will be
on the light side, with winds generally under 5 kts. So we will be
in a similar situation as this morning where air temps will drop
toward Cold Weather Advisory criteria, with any little bit of wind
possibly pushing values to criteria and/or the actual air temp
reaching criteria as temps bottom out overnight. However, HREF/REFS
probabilities of reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria are
surprising low (under 50%). Will let the day shift assess temps
tonight and issue the advisory if needed.

Temps will only slowly moderate next week as the arctic air
loosens its grip on the region, but it will remain well below
normal. Highs will recover into the single digits and eventually
teens above zero, but wind chills are expected to continue to be
below zero for much of next week, with only brief times above
zero some afternoons. Wind chills look to fall close to Cold
Weather Advisory levels Sunday night into Monday morning (-15 to
-35F).

Snow Chances:

As a strong winter storm impacts the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic
this weekend, a lake effect snow band is expected to develop over
Lake Michigan as winds converge across the central/eastern part of
the lake. Winds will attempt to shift to the northeast for a time
late Saturday into Sunday, allowing to band to drift toward the WI
shore line. However, latest CAMs showing it is unlikely to make
it, keeping the snow chances offshore. LREF and NBM probabilities
of measurable snow are under 15% now, so will drop the snow chances.

A clipper will race across the northern Great Lakes Monday night,
bringing the next chance for light snow. It looks to be rather
moisture-starved and will be quick mover, so not expecting much in
the way of accumulation. LREF showing probs of measurable precip
ranging from 20% over Wood County to near 80% near the MI border.
But probs of over a half inch are under 10%. NBM not as excited
about this snow chance, which keeps things basically dry. Think
this period will see PoPs increase, at least for a 6-hour period
when the best forcing/moisture arrives, as we get closer to the
event, but any impacts look to be minimal. Northwest winds behind
the clipper could touch of a few lake effect snow showers across
north-central WI into Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions and winds under 10 kts are expected through the TAF
period. Look for mid and high clouds to continue to spread over
the region, with some lower clouds possible at/near MTW tonight as
a large storm system passes well to our south.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Bersch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion