017
FXUS63 KGRB 081817
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
117 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer this afternoon with highs in the 60s, then a return to
  below normal readings into early next week. Frost is possible
  Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Slight chance (15-25%) for rain showers Saturday morning. The
  next chance (50-70%) opportunity for widespread rain comes
  Tuesday.

- Periods of elevated fire weather conditions will exist during
  the late morning through afternoon hours over the next few days
  due to low RHs, breezy winds, and drying fuels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Temps: With southwesterly winds continuing tonight low temperatures
will trend about 10 degrees warmer than the past few nights, so no
additional Frost Advisories tonight. The warming trend will be short-
lived as a cold front passes through the region Saturday veering the
winds back around to the northwest and returning seasonally cool
temperatures to the region through the weekend and into early next
week. Low temperatures Saturday and Sunday nights are forecast to
drop into the low to mid 30s across central and east-central WI.

Long-range ensemble trends do show a warming trend during the second
half of next week with most of the region warming above normal.
However, 500mb cluster analysis shows considerable discrepancies with
the locations of the long-wave trough/ridge pattern over the CONUS
beyond next Wednesday.

Precipitation: A weak frontal boundary marked by a wind shift is
currently over eastern MN along with a subtle short-wave visible on
WV imagery northwest of the Twin Cities. As these features move east
a few CAMs do show scattered showers developing this afternoon,
however, with dew point depressions around 25-30 degrees and analysis
soundings showing a very dry surface to 700mb layer don`t expect
much rain to reach the round.

Another chance for scattered showers comes early Saturday as another
cold front moves across the region. CAMs have back off with
widespread precip chances with this system, likely due to the very
dry low-levels. Best chance for a few hundreths of an inch of rain
is across central WI where additional upper-level support in the form
of of a left front jet quad is forecast to develop.

A more organized clipper system is on track to move through the
Upper Midwest early next week, impacting Wisconsin on Tuesday. This
is the greatest opportunity to see rain over the next week, with
probabilities of getting at least 0.10" ranging from 50-70%, highest
in central Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are will prevail through the TAF period. With such a
dry air mass in place fair weather cu have been struggling to
develop this morning. Do expect cu to fill in to a SCT extent this
afternoon with cloud bases around 10-11 kft. Overnight a BKN deck
based around 8-9 kft will push over the region ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is a small 20-30% chance for scattered
showers Saturday morning, mainly across central WI. Framed those
chances out with PROB30 groups at CWA and AUW, but went with a dry
period at all over TAF sites.

Deep mixing will allow for a gusts to around 20 kts this afternoon.
The gusts will ease after sunset, but SW winds of 10-15 kts are
expected overnight across the Fox Valley and lake shore, with winds
generally under 10 kts across central and northern WI overnight. A
lake breeze should turn winds S-SSE at KMTW this afternoon into this
evening. Behind a cold front Saturday morning winds will veer back to
the northwest with gusts up to 20kts during the late morning and
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

RAP analysis soundings this afternoon show deep mixing to 8-10kft,
bringing down sfc gusts to around 20-25 mph and leading to RHs in
the 25-32% range away from Lake Michigan. Should any fires ignite
late this afternoon they may be able to spread quickly. Additional
periods of slightly elevated fire weather conditions are possible
through this weekend due to periods of deep mixing, low RHs,
moderate winds, and increasing dry fuels.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK
FIRE WEATHER...GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion