008
FXUS63 KGRB 231730
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1230 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Staying mild into the weekend, with high temperatures inland of Lake
  Michigan warming into the mid 60s to low 70s.

- Rain chances (30 to 50%) Saturday night over northern
  Wisconsin, and late Monday into Tuesday mainly over central
  Wisconsin.

- Cooler start to next week, with highs mainly in the 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Fog... Similar to yesterday, fog bank has been slow to lift along
the lakeshore through the late morning and early afternoon as
onshore flow persists. However, most inland areas are now seeing
mainly low stratus as mixing increases. Dense fog regime looks to
come to an end tonight as southerly flow increases out ahead of an
approaching cold front, though could still see some patchy dense
fog along the lakeshore into Saturday morning. However, would
venture to say that widespread advisory level fog does not appear
likely.

Rain chances... Majority of the next week will be characterized by
periodic light rain chances as several transient shortwaves and
weak frontal boundaries migrate through the area. First round will
be Saturday into Sunday as moisture return along a slow-moving
boundary nudges PWATs into the 1 to 1.25" range (~95th
percentile). Upper jet energy working in tandem with front in the
vicinity should then keep on and off rain chances in the forecast
through at least the middle of next week. However, overall
rainfall amounts should be held to a minimum with high pressure in
the area and lack of stronger forcing at the surface. Would
venture to say that most areas will see less than half an inch of
QPF throughout the entire forecast period.

Temperatures... Arctic high sliding south in the wake of the front
Monday into Tuesday will bring about a spell of below average
temperatures during the middle of next week, with highs only
getting into the mid 40s to mid 50s. However, cooler temperatures
will be short-lived as return flow sets up on Wednesday, warming
highs back up into the 50s and 60s. Monday night lows will fall
into the low to mid 30s across the north, though little to no impacts
are expected since the growing season has come to an end. Looking
ahead, slightly above normal temperatures are favored toward the
end of the month and into November as upper flow flattens out,
though there is still uncertainty this far out as shown in
ensemble spread.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Marine dense fog in vicinity of MTW has been slow to lift, with
BR lingering into early this afternoon. Have opted to include a
brief TEMPO group for lower cigs and reduced vsbys to account for
this. Otherwise, all sites should remain under VFR flying
conditions throughout the TAF period as high pressure sits
overhead. Another round of patchy dense fog will be possible late
tonight into Saturday morning, though whether or not it will
impact a TAF site remains uncertain. Winds will be mainly out of
the southeast at under 10 knots, increasing Saturday afternoon.
LLWS concerns may arise at RHI, AUW, and CWA Saturday morning as
850 mb jet ramps up.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion