115
FXUS63 KGRB 251046
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
546 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog, locally dense, will be possible early this morning.

- High pressure will maintain mostly dry weather through early
  next week.

- Next widespread rain chances arrive during the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Light rain and sprinkles continue to affect western portions of
central Wisconsin early this morning as a mid level shortwave
tracks through the region. Rainfall amounts from this rain are
very light, on the order of a few hundredths of an inch as it
falls from a mid level deck given the abundant low level dry air
in place. Although the shortwave is expected to track east through
the morning, dry air will eat away at the precipitation as it
heads east.

Some fog is possible behind the showers across central and north-
central Wisconsin later this morning, which could affect the
morning commute, as winds decouple and remnant moisture gets
trapped under near-surface inversion. Surface observations show
this is already starting to come to fruition across far northwestern
Vilas County. Will issue SPS statements as appropriate as the
scope and impact becomes clear.

Otherwise, models continue to be unenthusiastic about rain
chances over the weekend as Hudson Bay high dominates the synoptic
pattern. As such, PoPs are held down to around 10 to 20% mainly
over central and north- central Wisconsin where models show the
greatest chance for showers. Strung out surface low then ejects
off into northern Canada early Friday morning, resulting in
showers splitting to our north and south.

Next chances for widespread stratiform rain remain on track for
the middle of next week as low pressure organizes over the
central Plains and deepening trough passes over the region.
Though ensembles still diverge on exact timing of precip,
consensus shows PWATs reaching near 90th percentile relative to
climo, increasing confidence in at least a soaking rainfall.
Probabilistic guidance currently shows a 30 to 50% signal for
receiving one inch of rainfall, though trends will need to
continue to be monitored. Otherwise, seasonal temperatures in the
60s to low 70s prevail for the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The showers moving through the region have all but evaporated to a
sprinkle or two across far southern portions of central Wisconsin.
These sprinkles should not impact the east-central Wisconsin TAF
sites this morning. Elsewhere, the fog has not really formed
across north-central and central Wisconsin, save for Vilas County.
There appears to be too many clouds for proper radiational
cooling early this morning. Therefore, will back off on the fog
across KRHI/KAUW/KCWA early in the period. Otherwise, middle and
high clouds will continue to pass over the region at times through
the TAF period. Clearing skies could once again lead to some
patchy fog across north-central Wisconsin late tonight.

Light winds will become southeast 5 to 10 knots later today,
becoming light and variable again tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion