183
FXUS63 KGRB 291138
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
638 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance (20-50%) for showers in northern Wisconsin this
  morning, but thunder chances are very low.

- Wind gusts as high as 35 mph today, strongest in east-central
  Wisconsin.

- Next opportunity for rain is late Wednesday through early
  Friday. Expecting mainly rain, thunder chances are low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Precip Today...Following the overnight rain and thunderstorms,
most places were quiet as of 09Z/Tue with only a few very isolated
rain showers or sprinkles. The main feature to watch is the mix
of rain and snow occurring in far northwest Wisconsin and
northeast MN in association with the wrap around from the surface
low and a mid- level shortwave. As these features track east over
the next few hours, this will bring a low to medium chance
(20-50%) of precip to northern and north- central through late
morning (~6-11AM). Temperatures are warmer here, so precip will
mostly be rain, but cannot rule out a few snowflakes in mainly
Vilas Co. No snow accumulation or impacts are expected. Cannot
completely rule out any thunder with this morning wave as some
models show a tiny bit of instability, but any lightning activity
would be isolated and short-lived. No severe weather is expected.

Precipitation and clouds clear out this afternoon as high
pressure builds in, leading to ample sunshine for the area.
However, a colder airmass will be in place, so temps will be
cooler today with highs ranging from the middle 40s in Vilas
County to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees across the Fox Valley
and east- central Wisconsin.

Winds Today...Gusty W to NW winds are also expected in the wake
of the cold front, with gusts from 20-35 mph. Winds will be
strongest in east-central WI, along east of the Fox Valley, where
the chance for wind gusts of 35+ mph is 20-40%.

Cool Wednesday Morning...High pressure and upper ridging will
keep conditions dry through Wednesday. The clear skies and light
winds tonight will bring somewhat chilly temps for late April,
with lows falling to the upper 20s and low 30s.

Next System...Another system impacts the area Wednesday night
into Friday morning which will bring on/off precip chances. As the
main low is currently expected to track south of the forecast
area, anticipate being on the cooler side of the system with
little to no instability to work with. So at the moment, thunder
chances are low and any severe weather looks unlikely.

Spring-like Weekend...Large high pressure builds in for the
weekend and early next week bringing very spring-like conditions
with partly to mostly sunny skies, relatively light winds, and a
warming trend. The chance for readings at or above 70 degrees on
Sunday and Monday ranges from about 50-70% for most locations away
from the lakeshore.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 638 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

A mix of flight conditions early this morning with primarily MVFR
cigs, along with some lower IFR conditions in north-central WI and
a few pockets of VFR where clouds have momentarily cleared.

Satellite imagery and upstream obs show a lower cloud deck with
bases around 400-1500 ft continues to push east behind the cold
front. Generally expecting MVFR/occasional IFR conditions through
the morning, and then clearing and a return to VFR conditions
this afternoon through the rest of the TAF period.

The other notable feature is the gusty winds. W to NW winds will
gust to around 30 kts until early to mid afternoon, and the
subside this evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion