693
FXUS63 KGRB 070518
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1118 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry until the middle of next week with a warming trend. Peak of
  warmth will be Monday and Tuesday.

- Northwest winds may gust over 30 mph on Sunday, especially
  north.

- Turning cooler by late next week with return of lake effect
  rain and snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure crossing into Saturday settles toward central Plains
and Ohio Valley by Sunday. Patchy ground fog possible beneath the
high tonight into early Saturday. Airmass very dry so not expecting
much coverage to fog, but with temps below freezing and pavement
temps dropping below freezing up north, a few slippery spots could
occur.

Cold front (more of a wind shift) sweeping through late Saturday
night into Sunday along with pressure rises and winds up to 35 kts
in the mixed layer may push wind gusts 30-35 mph over the northwoods,
with 20-30 mph elsewhere.

Highs on Sunday reach the lower to middle 50s, which is back
above average. Warmer temperatures continue on Monday and Tuesday,
with highs maybe reaching 60. However, probabilities for highs
reaching above 60F have diminished compared to what was shown last
night. Stronger cold front tied to broad upper troughing drops
across the region on Wednesday, Veterans Day. Low chances for rain
now showing up in the forecast on into Thursday, matching what
was shown by LREF data yesterday. Not a widespread signal for
precip, mainly just impacting lake effect areas of north-central
and along Door County/Lake Michigan. Even on the LREF probabilities
for more than 0.25 inch of precip are less than 5%, so if this
occurs it looks pretty light. Hint of colder air is showing up
more now into late next week, so seems could see some rain/snow or
snow at times for the lake effect areas of the north as 850mb
temps drop to around -8c. During this most recent cool down,
850mb temps were -4c to -6c, so could end up even cooler later
next week. Extended MOS guidance from GFS and ECMWF points to this
as well.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1118 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Skies are mostly clear this evening, except for lingering lake
stratocu across Door County. Warm air advection altocu over MN
will spread into central WI late tonight into Saturday morning.
Some patchy fog/stratus is possible overnight, especially across
north-central Wisconsin and may affect KRHI at times. The rest of
Saturday will feature mix of mid and high clouds, along with MVFR
to low-end scattered cu developing in the afternoon. Clouds then
increase Saturday evening with some LLWS developing across central
and north-central Wisconsin as west winds just above the surface
increase to 35-40 kts.

Winds will be less than 10 kts, shifting from NW tonight to WSW
on Saturday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion