838
FXUS63 KGRB 252004
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
304 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather is expected for the rest of today.

- The potential for rain and thunderstorms for Tuesday afternoon
  has increased, with a few strong to marginally severe storms
  possible with large hail and strong winds.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week, with
  highs forecast mainly in the upper 70s and 80s. A few spots may
  approach or reach 90 degrees on Tuesday.

- Due to persistent southerly winds and building waves, Small
  Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements begin on Lake
  Michigan at 4:00 PM today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Precipitation...There have been a few weak radar echos in east-
central WI this afternoon, but no reports of anything reaching the
ground, which aligns with the fact that cloud bases are around
10kft and there is fairly dry air beneath them. Removed any PoPs
for the rest of today as chances are very minimal at this point.

CAMs showing a few showers popping up late tonight, although
confidence in this occurring is low given the lack of forcing and
dry air still present. Added a few 15-20% PoPs late tonight into
Tuesday morning. The main opportunity for any rain and
thunderstorms comes Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front
slowly sags south across Wisconsin. Steep low-level lapse rates
and MUCAPEs of 1500-3000 J/kg (depending on the model) develop
during peak heating, which would be sufficient to produce
scattered thunderstorms capable of producing marginally strong to
severe hail and winds. CAMs have also become more robust with
this development over the past couple runs. SPC has added the
southern two-thirds of the forecast area to the Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) of severe storms for Tuesday, which is reasonable.
Showers and storms weaken and dissipate Tuesday evening.

There remains a small chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon; then surface high pressure dominates the
area from Thursday through next weekend which will result in
little to no precipitation.

Temperatures...Readings will trend above normal for the next
week, peaking Tuesday with highs the 80s to possibly low 90s. NBM
shows a 50-75% probability for parts of central into northeast WI
reaching or exceeding 90 degrees. While dew points will be
tolerable in the 50s to low 60s, there is a moderate (level 2 of
4) heat risk, meaning prolonged periods outside could affect those
who are sensitive to heat.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR flying conditions are expected through the TAF period. SCT to
BKN mid clouds continue to hang around east-central WI early this
afternoon, with mostly clear skies farther west. While radar is
indicating a few weak returns within these clouds, expect little
to none of this to reach the ground as cloud bases are quite high
with dry air near the surface. Lingering clouds will clear out
over the next couple hours, with mostly clear skies through
Tuesday morning. Some clouds may drift across northern WI
overnight, but VFR conditions will remain.

Southwest winds will gust to around 20 knots this afternoon, then
remain steady around 5 to 10 knots overnight while gradually
veering to the west. LLWS develops overnight with west to
southwest winds around 40 kts between 1400 and 2000 ft AGL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Persistent southerly winds gusting to 20 to 25 kts late this
afternoon into this evening will result in building waves to 3 to
5 ft along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters. No changes to the
Small Craft Advisory which runs from 4PM today through 7AM Tuesday
for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters. Given the higher waves
and the holiday, a Beach Hazards Statement for Lake Michigan
beaches in Manitowoc, Kewaunee, and Door counties also remains in
effect for the same time despite the swim risk being moderate
(instead of high).

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday morning for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ
MARINE.........KLJ

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion