945
FXUS63 KGRB 292253
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
553 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances (10 to 30%) for a pop-up shower or storm this
  afternoon and again Thursday afternoon. No strong storms are
  expected.

- Wildfire smoke may reach the surface at times this afternoon,
  becoming more widespread on Thursday. Minor visibility
  restrictions and a drop to moderate air quality is expected.

- Greater chances (60 to 80%) for showers and storms return
  Friday into Friday night. No severe weather is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Rain/storm chances... Some CAMs are still picking up on a signal
for pop-up showers or storms (10 to 20% chance) over the north
this afternoon and again Thursday afternoon (20 to 30% chance) due
to weak instability. However, current thinking is that generating
a shower or storm will be difficult due to lack of forcing and
smoke aloft. Overall, most areas should stay dry with upper
ridging firmly in place.

Better chances for a more widespread wetting rain will come on
Friday as a potent shortwave spins up a surface low over the
northern Plains. Current long-range solutions show more of a
glancing blow to our southern tier of counties where higher PWATs
(1.5 to 1.75") are holed up closer to the low, though mid-range
guidance shows pockets of heavier rainfall occurring with better
instability and skinny CAPE profiles Friday afternoon. As such, WPC
highlights portions of central Wisconsin in a Day 3 slight risk
for excessive rainfall. NBM probabilities show a broad 30 to 60%
signal for 0.5" of QPF along/south of Hwy 29. Convective activity
should remain fairly limited due to weak shear (< 20 knots). High
pressure then builds into the weekend, foretelling of a drier
forecast into early next week.

Smoke... GOES satellite imagery shows a plume of elevated wildfire
smoke spreading over Wisconsin from north to south early this
afternoon as high pressure sits and spins over lower Michigan.
Subsident airmass is expected to bring some of this smoke to the
surface at times beginning later this afternoon, becoming more
widespread on Thursday. Air quality is forecast to fall into the
moderate (yellow) category during this time, with minor reductions
in visibility possible. Worth noting is that overall air quality
impacts are not expected to be as drastic as earlier in the month.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR will prevail across the region through the TAF period. A
scattered fair weather cu field that develop this afternoon is
beginning to clear out which should leave mostly clear skies
overnight. Thursday a plume of wildfire smoke drifting over the area
may slightly reduce surface vsbys, but they should remain VFR based
on upstream trends. There is also a 20-30% for an isolated shower to
impact RHI during the afternoon/evening, but minimal aviation impacts
are expected. Winds will be under 10 knots through Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion