472
FXUS63 KGRB 011032
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
532 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather prevails through midweek. Chances for showers
  and storms return later this week and into the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures through the weekend. Highs mainly in
  the 80s.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this week due to low relative
  humidity and above normal temperatures. Near-critical conditions
  may develop Thursday when winds increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Precipitation Chances...A strong ridge of high pressure is
expected to dominate the weather pattern through at least midweek,
keeping conditions dry. There are two minor wrinkles that some
guidance is indicating could bring very light scattered rain
showers or sprinkles. The first being early this morning with a
subtle shift of the persistent stationary moisture to the
southwest of the region moving into the southwest portion of the
forecast area in central Wisconsin. The second being a lake
enhanced backdoor cold front shifting west across the area this
afternoon/evening that may interact with a pocket of moisture in
central and north-central Wisconsin. However, much of the area is
expected to remain dry with the prevailing high pressure and
abundant dry air in place across the region.

By Wednesday night, the upper-level ridge will flatten and the
high pressure will slide eastward as a shortwave trough
approaches from the northern Plains. Beginning Thursday, the
pattern becomes unsettled with multiple chances for showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Since there are still some
timing issues, it is too early to determine any severe potential
at this time.

Temperatures...High temperatures are expected to be about 5-
10 degrees above normal early this week, with highs ranging from
the upper 70s into the 80s. Temperatures look to peak around
Thursday, with highs potentially climbing into the upper 80s, but
this will depend on cloud cover and precip timing. There is also
some potential for temperatures to climb into the low 90s, but
probabilities are low (30% or lower). With dew points at tolerable
levels throughout the week, the heat risk is low (level 1 out of
4), which primarily impacts those who are extremely sensitive to
heat and without cooling/hydration.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 532 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high clouds
continue to filter over the region. Light and variable winds will
turn east/southeast this morning. A backdoor cold front will
begin to move across the region this afternoon with winds behind
the front turning northeasterly and gusting up to 15 kts. Some of
the CAMs indicate there could be a light shower or two across
portions of central and north-central Wisconsin this afternoon as
the backdoor cold front tracks through the area. However, the
chance for any shower to affect the western TAF sites is too low
(15% or less) to include in the TAFs. Light winds are expected
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Until a widespread wetting rain occurs, elevated fire weather
conditions will continue through much of this week as afternoon
RHs will routinely drop to 20 to 30% or lower with temperatures in
the 70s/80s. Despite green up progressing and/or completing, fuel
input from fire partners points to concern where recent dryness
persists, any days with increasing winds could allow the fire
weather potential to rise to near-critical. The greatest potential
appears to be Thursday as the lower RH values could coincide with
increasing gradient winds as the prevailing high pressure exits
east and a shortwave/trough approaches from the northern Plains.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
FIRE WEATHER...Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion