881
FXUS63 KGRB 091750
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1150 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow are expected through mid morning. 1 to 2 inches of
  additional snow is expected across north-central Wisconsin. A
  Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.

- Where rain falls on melting snow and frozen ground and frozen
  rivers there is a potential for minor flooding in low-lying and
  poor drainage areas and also along rivers. There is a potential
  for ice jams as well into the weekend.

- Gusty northerly winds of 30 to 40 mph are possible this morning.

- Another system will bring snow Saturday and Saturday night. The
  probabilities for 2 inches of snow ranges from 20-40% across
  central and north-central WI to 40-60% across northeast and
  east-central Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Snow across northern Wisconsin...

Snow will continue to wind down across northern Wisconsin this
morning. Reports indicate around an inch or two has fallen across
much of north-central Wisconsin, with some localized amounts of 4
to 6 inches near the Michigan border. Additional snowfall amounts
of another inch or two are expected as the snow winds down this
morning. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory across that
region this morning through 6 AM when the snow is expected to be
done. Despite some reports close to 6 inches, no upgrade is
planned as the higher amounts appear to be very localized.

Heavy rain and flood risk for central to northeast WI...

Strong frontogenetic forcing in the deformation zone of a low
pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes has
dumped between 1 to 1.4 inches of rain in a strip from
Waushara/Portage counties to southern Oconto County. Despite the
rainfall, local dispatch reports minimal impact from the rain this
morning. Outside of this main band, rainfall amounts have
generally been below 1 inch with the heaviest rain having come to
an end. Additional rainfall amounts are expected to be 0.1 to 0.3
the rest of this morning where the heaviest rain has fallen.
Therefore, will keep the Flood Watch where the swath of light to
moderate rain will continue this morning from Waupaca to southern
Marinette County and cancel for the rest of the area.

Rest of the region Today...

As the low pulls off to the east this morning, rain may briefly
transition to snow and a brief period of sleet across central and
east-central WI, however, don`t expect much in the way of
accumulating snow in these areas. Precipitation will should start
to end from west to east mid morning. A tight pressure gradient
will mean northerly winds will gust to 30 to 40 mph at times
through the morning. Winds will then ease this afternoon as the
low pulls away from the region.

Saturday and Saturday night Snowfall...

Although there is still variability regarding the phasing between
northern and southern stream shortwaves, there seems to be some
consensus that the highest amounts will be across far northeast
Wisconsin and the lakeshore. In addition, the spread in the NBM
has tightened up a bit from previous runs. For example, the spread
between the 25th and 75th percentiles for Green Bay is now 0.5 to
5.5 inches. Current NBM probabilities are unchanged, with the
probability of 2 or more inches still 20-40% across central and
north-central Wisconsin, with 40-60% across northeast and east-
central Wisconsin. The probability of 4 or more inches was still
20-40% across northeast and east-central Wisconsin. As things
currently stand this event looks to produce 1 to 3 inches of snow
across central and north-central Wisconsin, with 2 to 4 inches and
possibly up to 5 inches across northeast and east-central
Wisconsin. The phasing of these systems still poses a problem,
with some outliers still indicating 6 or more inches is possible
per the 90th percentile. Therefore, there is not enough confidence
for any possible headlines with this forecast issuance.

Forecast beyond Saturday...

Beyond the Saturday system, several clipper systems moving southeast
with the mean flow will bring chances of snow or possibly a wintry
mix at times next week. Low confidence in timing and location of
the axis of precipitation due to varying model solution placement
and timing of each feature. Temperatures next week start out
milder than normal, then transitions towards normal or below late
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Low clouds were eroding over east central WI, and this trend is
expected to continue regionwide due to subsidence/drying in the
wake of the departing short-wave and incoming high pressure ridge.
High and mid-level clouds will increase by evening ahead of an
incoming clipper system, and this may prevent widespread fog/low
stratus from forming overnight. The clipper will bring light snow
to the region, starting late tonight in north central and central
WI, and Saturday morning in eastern WI. Flight conditions will
likely drop to MVFR/IFR as this occurs.

Gusty northwest winds will diminish early this afternoon, become
light and variable tonight, then westerly 5 to 10 kts after a
cold front moves through Tuesday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion