504
FXUS63 KGRB 280507
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1207 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain expected (60-90%) with a chance (15-40%) of non-severe
  storms this evening into early Thursday. Another chance
  (15-25%) for scattered showers this weekend, and again early
  next week.

- Record or near record temperatures this afternoon, with
  temperatures staying above normal into next week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft expected Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
  the bay and Lake Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A few showers lingered across north-central and far northeast
Wisconsin during the late evening. These showers should come to an
end overnight. Some patchy fog was also noted across the north.
It was mild with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Wednesday, a warm front will lift northward allowing
for unseasonably mild temperatures for late October with record or
near record high temperatures. There is a 60-90% chance temperatures
reach 70 degrees south of Highway 29. Record highs for Wednesday
(10/28) are 70 at Green Bay (1946), 71 at Wausau (1986) and 78 at
Rhinelander (1927). Showers and scattered thunderstorms along a
cold front will move across the area Wednesday evening. Bufkit
soundings indicated around 500 J/KG of CAPE although 0-6 shear
values are around 20 knots. However, bufkit soundings indicated
strong winds off the deck (40-50 knots). The Day 2 Outlook from
SPC has the Marginal Risk of severe weather over west-central WI.
The showers should come to an end Thursday morning across eastern
WI as high pressure builds into the region. Dry and mild conditions
continue Thursday and Friday before the next chance of rain
(15-30%) arrives on Saturday and then lingers into Sunday. Based
on the model output of the Canadian/ECMWF low confidence if/when
rain would occur next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early overnight, a diffuse warm front is lifting north across
central and east-central WI. North of this front, conditions are
MVFR and IFR, while VFR conditions prevail south of the boundary.
While the warm front will continue to slowly lift north, IFR
conditions will likely continue at RHI through late morning or
early afternoon. Confidence is lower at AUW/CWA, but it is
possible that IFR ceilings sag south into those terminals for a
time early this morning and will be monitoring.

After a period of VFR ceilings during the afternoon, a cold front
will bring a broken band of showers and thunderstorms to the
region after 01Z Thu. MVFR visibilities and ceilings will be
possible in the heavier downpours.

Lastly, low level wind shear will abate at RHI early this morning.
But strengthening winds aloft to 45-50 kts will bring in more
wind shear after 00z Thu.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion