122
FXUS63 KGRB 070756
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
256 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light mixed precipitation may bring slippery roads to parts of
  central, north central and far northeast WI late tonight into
  Wednesday morning. Moderate rain overspreads the region late
  Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Strong south winds on Lake Michigan prompt the issuance of a
  Gale Watch Wednesday morning through late Wednesday evening.

- Potential is increasing for additional heavy rainfall late this
  weekend into early next week.

- Probabilities for > 1 inch of precipitation over the next week
  are 80-90%. Probabilities for > 2 inches are 20-40%. Mean
  rainfall for the week is roughly 1.5 to 2 inches. Minor flooding
  continues along a few rivers this week, with potential for
  more widespread flooding later next weekend into early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

High pressure brought clear skies to the forecast area early this
morning. Temperatures were quite cold over north central WI, where
readings dropped into the single digits. Elsewhere temperatures
were in the teens to middle 20s.

Sunny skies are expected today, with highs reaching the upper 30s
and lower 40s, except lower to middle 30s near Lake Michigan.

An active pattern commences late tonight as the high shifts east
and a 50-55 knot low-level jet takes aim on the region. The
resulting WAA/isentropic lift brings a light mix, starting as
snow, then changing to sleet, freezing rain and rain as warmer air
arrives aloft then at the surface. Have put more focus on sleet in
this forecast, as there is uncertainty regarding the arrival time
of the stronger warm layer aloft. Think most areas will see a
dusting to a half inch of combined snow/sleet, with a light glaze
of ice occurring over central, north central and far northeast
WI. This may result in locally hazardous travel conditions for the
morning commute. Surface temperatures look to warm enough for all
rain by late Wednesday morning, as this first round of precipitation
exits northeast WI. A second round of moderate rainfall arrives
with a cold frontal passage and short-wave trough during the late
afternoon in north central and central WI, and the evening across
northeast and east central WI.

Mainly dry weather returns late Wednesday night through Saturday,
with the exception of a 20-40 percent chance of light precipitation
over the southern part of the forecast area Thursday night.

A prolonged period of more significant rainfall arrives Saturday
night into early next week, with deep southerly flow leading to an
influx of Gulf moisture. This rainfall could push totals for the
week to 1.5 to 2 inches in many areas. Probabilities for total
weekly rainfall > 1 inch are 80-90%. Probabilities for > 2 inches
are 20-40%.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Expect VFR flying conditions through the TAF period with mostly
clear skies overnight and throughout Tuesday. High clouds return
Tuesday evening.

Northerly winds will continue to subside overnight, and then back
to the south on Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Minor flooding continues on the Oconto and Wolf Rovers early this
morning. The Oconto River is forecast to drop below flood stage
later tonight, while the Wolf River will likely remain above
flood stage through at least the weekend. Saturated conditions
along with light to moderate precipitation late tonight through
Wednesday evening and potentially heavier precipitation later this
weekend into early next week, could result in renewed potential
for areal flooding.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......KLJ
HYDROLOGY......Kieckbusch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion