814
FXUS63 KGRB 241043
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
543 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The main band of rain has exited the area this morning. Current
observations indicate much of the region was spared from heavy
rain as rainfall amounts ranged from around 0.50 inches across
western portions of central and north-central Wisconsin, with a
few hundredths to one tenth of an inch across east-central and
northeast Wisconsin. Recent CAMS runs indicate additional showers
for the rest of the day should be fairly light and are not
expected to add appreciably to the rainfall totals. Therefore,
even if the next system overperforms flooding may not be as
impactful next week as previously thought due to the
underperforming of this initial band of rain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers are expected today. Additional
  rainfall amounts will be light.

- Another round of rain and embedded storms is forecast Monday and
  Tuesday. Heavy rainfall between 1 and 2" will once again be
  possible.

- Rivers will continue to rise into next week following several
  additional rounds of heavy rain, acting to exacerbate ongoing
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region today as
a cold front tracks through the area. The rain will end from west
to east throughout the day, with cooler afternoon highs in the
60s. Any thunderstorms should remain well below severe limits as
instability will be de minimis. Rainfall amounts have come down
from previous runs across east-central and northeast Wisconsin as
the probability for over an inch of rain is 30 to 60 percent
across central and north- central Wisconsin, with less than 10%
across the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. The probability for 2
inches or more has also fallen in these same areas, limited to
far western central and north-central Wisconsin at 10-20%.

High pressure will then bring dry weather to the region for the
upcoming weekend. A low pressure system emerging over the central
Plains will deepen as it tracks towards the western Great Lakes
region late in the weekend. Rain from this system should hold off
until Monday as it runs into dry air pumping into the region from
a Hudson Bay high. The rain from this system looks to fall from
Monday to Tuesday with another round of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Current NBM probabilities for more than 1 inch of rain is a solid
30 to 65% across just about the entire region, save for far
north-central Wisconsin, and similar to the previous run. The
probability for more than 2 inches has fallen a bit to 10-25%
centered on the Highway 29 and 10 corridor.

After this system clears the region, the middle to later part of
the week looks to be cooler with relatively quiet weather
expected. Some embedded shortwaves could bring a small chance
(10-20%) for light precipitation at times during this period;
however, the impact would be rather low as QPF amounts are only a
few hundredths. Despite this stretch of quiet weather, area rivers
may continue to rise during the middle to late part of next week
as precipitation works its way through the river basins.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The threat for thunderstorms has ended at the TAF sites, with only
some isolated to scattered showers possible today as a cold front
sweeps through the region. Conditions this morning ranged from VFR
to LIFR with the best conditions across the east. Conditions
should settle into the MVFR/IFR category along and right behind
the front for a period of time, then gradually improve to VFR from
west to east this afternoon as clearing makes its way through the
area. VFR conditions are then expected tonight.

Winds will become west then northwest this morning at 10 to 20
knots as a cold front moves through the area. Light northerly
winds are then expected tonight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Minor to moderate flooding continues on several rivers, namely
the Wolf and Menominee. While water levels have continued to
recede given a recent bout of dry weather, this is likely to
change from the rainfall last night into today with another round
expected Monday and Tuesday.

Per RFC forecasts and HEFS guidance, it appears that the
Menominee River could return to recent crests in major flood stage
this weekend into the middle part of next week with portions of
the Wolf River returning to major flood stage around the middle of
next week. Increasing snow melt from the Upper Peninsula would
lend some confidence for at least a return to moderate flood
stage. Additionally, levels on the Lake Winnebago system continue
to gradually rise, with minor flooding already occurring from Lake
Poygan to Winnebago and minor flooding forecast to occur through
the weekend.

Those living near rivers or streams should continue to monitor
the latest Flood Warnings and statements from the National Weather
Service in Green Bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kurimski
DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
HYDROLOGY......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion