334
FXUS63 KGRB 101101
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
501 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered (30 to 50% chance) showers possible Wednesday into
  Thursday. Potential for lake effect flurries continuing over far
  north-central Wisconsin and along the shoreline through Friday.

- Above normal temperatures continue Tuesday then cool to near
  normal toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Quiet weather is in the forecast for Tuesday before showers return
Wednesday morning. Weak WAA ahead of an upper trough will provide
the moisture and lift to justify chance pops (30 to 50% chance)
starting in the morning hours, but initially concentrated to far
northern Wisconsin, closer to the trough. The scattered shower
activity is then expected to quickly spread across the region as
the cold front sweeps across the area. Winds will shift northwards
behind the front, providing the setup for some lake effect showers
in the typical lake effect areas of north-central Wisconsin and
possibly portions of the Lake Michigan shoreline, especially
northern Door County. These showers will likely (50-70% chance)
stick around while the more northerly flow persists much of
Thursday before tapering to an end over the day Friday. Overnight
low temperatures may suffice for snow to mix in at times in the
lake effect regions. Precipitation totals have come up slightly
across the region, but overall the on and off showers Wednesday
and Thursday will still be fairly light. Probabilistic guidance
paints out around 40-60% chance of exceeding a tenth of an inch
across the area, and around 20-30% of a quarter of an inch across
the northern portions of Wisconsin. The lake effect areas may also
need monitoring, as there is some potential to see locally higher
rainfall totals if precipitation persists for the entire period,
especially in north-central Vilas County and in northern Door near
Washington Island. At this time, probabilistic guidance highlights
these two areas around 30% chance of exceeding a half an inch of
rainfall. Snowfall amounts have not changed much as the window for
flurries remains small and accumulations will likely remain
minimal on the surface.

Temperatures will see a return to near normal with the influx of
cooler air, with highs in the upper 30s to 40s Thursday and Friday
before gradually getting above normal again over the weekend.

Outlook... Solid signal (50 to 70%) exists for above normal
temperatures through at least the end of the month with El Nino
driving the synoptic pattern. Additionally, omega ridge looks to
set up toward the end of the week, which should result in a
prolonged period of dry weather to accompany the mild conditions.
With D4 drought in far northern Wisconsin, will have to monitor
for fire weather concerns over the next several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Good flying conditions are expected to be in place across the
region through this evening with VFR conditions. Skies will
remain mostly clear today, then thicken and lower tonight as a
shortwave approaches the northern Great Lakes. This shortwave will
bring a chance (20-30%) for light rain as well as MVFR CIGs across
north-central Wisconsin, which could affect RHI.

Surface winds will be light early this morning, around 5 kts
across all terminals. Winds will see minimal increases during the
day then slacken again tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion