078
FXUS63 KGRB 291115
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
615 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances (10-30%) for pop-up showers or storm this
  afternoon and Thursday afternoon. No strong storms are expected.

- Wildfire smoke may reach the surface at times across central and
  north-central Wisconsin this afternoon and tonight, then across
  the entire region Thursday into Thursday night. Minor visibility
  restrictions and a drop in air quality into moderate or yellow
  category is expected.

- Greater chances (60-80%) for showers and storms return Friday
  into Friday night. At this time, severe weather risk is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Generally quiet weather is expected through Thursday with upper
level ridging in place across the western Great Lakes. The main
exception may be across northern Wisconsin this afternoon as the
Lake Superior lake breeze sinks south with a small (10-30%) chance
of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A few pop-up storms
are also possible on Thursday as well (10-20% chance); however, no
strong storms are expected during this period. Models indicate
some smoke could reach the surface at times starting this
afternoon and tonight across central and north-central Wisconsin
then across the entire region Thursday into Thursday night. This
smoke isn`t expected to be nearly as bad as earlier this month,
with some minor visibility restrictions and a drop in air quality
into the moderate or yellow category expected.

A potent shortwave and surface low will bring a better chance
(60-80%) for showers and thunderstorms on Friday into Friday
night, with light activity possibly lingering into Saturday.
Despite decent SBCAPEs of 1-2 J/g across the north, bulk shear
values are paltry below 20 knots; therefore, severe storms are not
anticipated. However, PWATs around 1.75 inches along with long and
skinny CAPE profiles and decent forcing indicate there is a
marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) across much of
the area, with isolated areas in central Wisconsin at a slight
risk (level 2 of 4).

High pressure building in behind the departing low portends a
drier forecast for the second half of the weekend, lasting into
the early portion of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly sunny
skies may be followed by a scattered CU field based around 5-6kft
during the mid to late morning. Some isolated showers are
possible during the afternoon, mainly across northern and central
Wisconsin. Winds today will gradually turn to the southwest with
sustained winds of 5-10kts, becoming light and variable tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion