891
FXUS63 KGRB 221801
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm through the holiday weekend with well
  above average temperatures likely for much of next week.

- Although there are intermittent low (20 to 50%) rain chances
  into next week, the risk for organized heavier rain or severe
  weather is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Temperatures: Warming into next week

Steady warming will occur through the weekend into early next week
as a mid-level trough swings east of the area and heights build
across the central US. A blocking pattern with an amplified
ridge across the central US bookended by upper lows over the
western/eastern US should support continued warmer than average
temperatures through the end of next week.

By early next week, highs likely will exceed 80 degrees for much of
the area, with some cooling along Lake Michigan. Somewhat greater
spread in temps seen by mid to late next week, likely owing to
uncertainty in the placement and amplitude of ridging.


Precipitation: Low shower/storm chances at times

Overall, the risk for organized heavier rainfall or severe
storms is quite low over the next week.

A weak shortwave will eject northeast from the Ohio Valley into
Saturday while a broad trough pivots east from the northern
plains. A small (20-40%) shower chance exists over far eastern
Wisconsin ahead of the wave to the southeast Saturday morning while
the higher shower chances (30-50%) look to be across central
Wisconsin later Saturday afternoon and evening. However, with
very weak MUCAPE, thunder chances are quite low.

Low (20-30%) shower/storm chances persist through early week as
diurnal instability interacts with low-amplitude low
predictability shortwave troughs. However, most hours will be
dry.

Little signal for rain is evident late next week as Canadian
high pressure builds across the region with a drier airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions will persist into tonight with increasing
mid/high clouds. By late tonight into Saturday morning, chances
for MVFR ceilings increase (50-90%). Patchy IFR ceilings could
not be ruled out Saturday morning, but chances are low (less
than 30%). A few showers may also impact eastern WI terminals
Saturday morning, but chances are too low to explicitly include
in the TAF right now. Winds will remain easterly, gusting up to
25 kts at times this afternoon before gradually slackening
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening
for the nearshore Lake Michigan waters with a Beach Hazards
Statement for Lake Michigan beaches. Although winds and waves
are somewhat marginal, persistent easterly flow will result in
waves of 2 to 4 feet and a few gusts up to 25 kts.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through
     this evening for WIZ022-040-050.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CDT
     tonight for LMZ541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion