337
FXUS63 KGRB 112353
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
553 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- On and off showers, sprinkles, or flurries through Thursday.
  Potential for any snow is highest across north-central WI, but
  measurability will be limited due to melting.

- Lake effect showers lasting across far northern and northeast WI
  through Friday.

- Mainly dry this weekend with a slow warming trend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Upper trough over the Great Lakes region will keep northeast
Wisconsin in a cyclonic flow pattern through Friday, leading to a
stretch of cooler and cloudy conditions, with on and off batches
of showers--rain and snow.

Surface cold front currently stretches from about Oconto back
through Clintonville and Stevens Point, with the next round of
light showers coming in along and behind the front. This batch
will move south this afternoon, with light rain accumulations
(less than 0.10") along it. Behind the front, embedded shortwaves
along with cold north winds over Lake Superior and Lake Michigan
will generate more showers tonight and into Thursday, with some
continued presence into Friday as well. Exact timing is difficult
to pin down, as precip will generally be light and short-lived at
any one location, but the potential exists throughout due to the
lake- enhancement and general cold, cyclonic flow. Probabilities
for measurable rain range from 50-100% from now through Friday
morning, but drop to near 0% for at least 0.25" of rain outside of
the common lake effect areas--this includes far north central WI
(mainly Vilas County) and counties along Lake Michigan.
Probabilities of a quarter inch range from 30-50% in these areas
due to their proximity to lake bands and more persistent precip at
times.

P-types remain rain this afternoon, with a changeover to
snow tonight, particularly across central and northern northern
WI. While up to 1-2" of snow is forecast to fall in Vilas County,
measurable accumulation may be limited by warmer ground and near-
surface temps, especially during the day. This could lead to some
brief, minor vsby reductions, but overall expect impacts to remain
minimal. Across the Fox Valley and lakeshore, any snowflakes are
likely to be brief and/or mixed with rain. Door County is the
exception as there are some indications a narrow band of snow
could form here Thursday night. But right now probabilities for 1"
of snow or more in Door County are negligible. Kept mention of
sprinkles/flurries through Thursday for all areas where PoPs were
below 15.

A final shortwave comes through Saturday which keeps minor PoPs
in the east, then upper ridge and surface high arrive on Sunday.
Expect dry weather and light winds through early next week, along
with a warming temperature trend. High temperatures will be in
the 40s to low 50s, ~5 degrees warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 553 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Flying conditions are generally VFR early overnight across central
Wisconsin, but some pockets of MVFR persist in east-central
Wisconsin along the cold front and in north-central Wisconsin
where clouds and lake effect showers have begun to push into the
region. As we progress through the overnight hours, expect some
clearing to work its way southwards across the central to east-
central WI areas for a time while the MVFR stratus deck in the
north also expands southwards. Eventually expect widespread MVFR
conditions by Thursday morning with partly to mostly cloudy skies
everywhere. Lake effect showers will then be the main challenge in
the aviation forecast, with showers pushing southwards of Lake
Superior likely to affect RHI throughout the day tomorrow, while
having more intermittent impacts into central Wisconsin. Mean
winds will also support lake effect showers along the Lake
Michigan shoreline, which will mainly impact MTW but could also
push into ATW and GRB at times. Confidence for these further
inland areas was not high so maintained a PROB30 group for the
intermittent chance. Flurries may mix in at times with any lake
effect, but any accumulations will likely stay limited to a
dusting.

Winds will remain light early overnight but will increase by the
early morning as strong northerly winds up to 20 to 25 knots
arrive by Thursday morning. A few of these gusts may get up to 30
knots during the day.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......Uhlmann

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion