952
FXUS63 KGRB 081800
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Northwest winds gusting 25 to 35 mph through this afternoon,
  especially over northern Wisconsin.

- Dry with slightly above normal temperatures through the middle
  of the week.

- Turning cooler by late week, with return of lake effect rain
  and snow showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Dry cold front has largely shifted winds to the west/northwest as
it continues to track over Lake Michigan early this afternoon.
As such, surface obs show widespread gusts between 20 and 25 mph,
highest along the lakeshore in proximity to the front. Wind shift
has likewise resulted in lake-induced stratus deck sinking south
into portions of north-central Wisconsin, which should stick
around through the overnight period.

Above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 50s persist through
Tuesday as warming ridge builds over the Plains. Next frontal
passage (more adjacent to a wind shift) then remains on track for
late Monday into Tuesday. Cold FROPA looks to move through mostly
dry during this time, with ensembles generating light QPF
Wednesday into Thursday as upper trough digs down from Manitoba
into the Great Lakes. Blend retains 20 to 30% PoPs, mainly
concentrated in the lake effect belts. Northerly flow regime will
result in cold air core working south into the Great Lakes by the
middle to end of the week, with 850 mb temperatures plunging to
near -10C. Therefore, potential exists for a few flurries to mix
in with light rain at times. Steady stream of CAA paired with
closed upper low sitting and spinning over the eastern CONUS may
be enough to keep the flurry machine going in Vilas co and along
the lakeshore through the end of the work week.

Outlook... Solid signal (50 to 70%) exists for above normal
temperatures through at least the end of the month with El Nino
driving the synoptic pattern. Additionally, omega ridge looks to
set up toward the end of the week, which should result in a
prolonged period of dry weather to accompany the mild conditions.
With D4 drought in far northern Wisconsin, will have to monitor
for fire weather concerns over the next several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

MVFR stratus originating from Lake Superior has continued to sink
south throughout the morning, and is progged to make it down to
RHI within the next hour or two. Lake effect clouds should then
lift back to the north overnight, to be replaced by increasing mid
clouds that stick around for the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds have been quick to pick up behind the cold front this
morning, with obs showing gusts to at least 20 knots across all
terminals. Daytime mixing should increase gusts into the 25 to 30
knot range through the afternoon, before northwest winds
eventually subside after sunset.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion