057
FXUS63 KGRB 240524
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1224 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog across far eastern WI, parts of Green Bay and Lake
  Michigan into early Saturday.

- Rain chances (30 to 50%) Saturday night over northern Wisconsin,
  and late Monday into Tuesday (30 to 70%) mainly over central
  Wisconsin. Amounts will remain light.

- Mild temps continue on Saturday with highs in the 60/70s. A
  quick shot of more seasonal readings arrive Monday & Tuesday
  (40/50s), then temps rebound on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Dense Fog...another night with dense fog to contend with as south
to southeast flow over Lake Michigan has once again allowed dense
fog to develop across far eastern WI near Lake Michigan this
evening. Mid-clouds increasing from the west through the night
should help confine the fog to far eastern WI near Lake Michigan
into Saturday morning, with a little westward and northward
expansion possible, especially near the Bay. The fog will mix out
and lift by mid-Saturday morning as winds and clouds increase.
Will run the Dense Fog Advisory for the lakeshore counties
through 9AM.

Rain Chances...weak push of WAA and ribbon of moisture could
produce a few sprinkles across central and northern WI during the
pre-dawn hours of Saturday. Then, as a shortwave and better
moisture arrives, along with a frontal boundary sagging into the
area, showers chances increase to 30-50% after dark on Saturday
into Sunday morning. While PWATs climb to ~1.25", overall forcing
is lacking so not expecting much rain with probabilities of over
a quarter inch under 5%. The front will shift just to our south
Sunday afternoon into Monday, then lift back north early next
week. Better dynamics will reside to our north/west, but parts of
central and north-central WI will see chances for rain (30-70%)
late Monday into Tuesday as at least a couple shortwaves and
pushes of WAA cross the northern Plains/western Great Lakes and
interact with the boundary. Another shot at rain arrives on
Wednesday as a potentially more potent shortwave and frontal
boundary cross the region.

Temperatures...the weekend will start off on the mild side with
well above normal temps continuing as southerly flow persists.
Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast, cooler near the
shores of Lake Michigan. As the frontal boundary sinks south,
highs on Sunday will fall into the 50s in north-central WI, but
remain in the upper 60s to around 70 in east-central WI. The
entire area will see temps return closer to seasonal norms on
Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. The cooler temps
will be short-lived as return flow sets up on Wednesday and
readings rebound back above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A bank of dense fog has developed along the lakeshore, extending
from MTW through Door County. Expect LIFR vsbys to continue through
12-14Z at MTW. There is a low end chance (10%) that this bank of fog
drifts far enough inland to briefly impact GRB, however, given the
low confidence only have MVFR conditions at GRB. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected as mid and high clouds spread across the
region through the TAF period.

Southeast to south surface winds will remain under 10 kts tonight.
As winds at 2000 ft increase overnight, LLWS will develop across
central and north-central WI, impacting RHI, CWA and AUW. South
winds will increase Saturday morning, with gusts to around 20 kts
expected from mid-morning into the mid-afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022-040-
050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......GK

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion