865
FXUS63 KGRB 031840
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1240 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of thunder
  continue through Thursday, with the heaviest periods of rain
  coming now through tonight.

- For drought stricken northern Wisconsin, there is a 80-100%
  chance of an additional 0.50-1.00" of rain and a 50-70%
  chance of over an inch of rain.

- Except for near normal temperatures on Friday, above normal
  temperatures are expected throughout the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A slow moving low pressure system across northwest Missouri will
make its wave into Minnesota/western Wisconsin late tonight, then
into Ontario late Wednesday night. This system will bring periods
of showers through Wednesday night. A few non-severe thunderstorms
are possible later this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest periods
of rain coming now through tonight. A 500mb trough is expected to
swing across the western Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing additional
chances of showers. Any lingering should across eastern Wisconsin
will end Thursday night. For drought stricken northern Wisconsin,
there is a 80-100% chance of an additional 0.50-1.00" of rain and
a 50-70% chance of over an inch of rain.

Behind the departing system, blustery northwest winds can be
expected that will usher in cooler air Thursday night. Above
normal temperatures to continue Wednesday and Thursday, then
return closer to normal on Friday before above normal temperatures
return for the weekend and continue through much of next week.
Mainly dry conditions expected Friday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Periods of showers will continue this afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon. CIGS in the MVFR category across central and east-
central WI this afternoon will fall back into the IFR category
tonight. For the rest of the area, IFR CIGS will prevail. The
low CIGS will linger through Wednesday. There is a chance of
thunderstorms later this afternoon into tonight. Also, low level
wind shear should be anticipated this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A prolonged period of gusty south to southeast winds and large
waves on Lake Michigan will continue into Wednesday. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters
through Wednesday evening. Gusty winds on the bay should subside
late this afternoon where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until 6 PM. Later tonight, will need to monitor for fog as
dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s are moving over the bay
and lake where water temps are in the 50s. Also, winds should
ease later tonight to help for the formation of fog. Otherwise,
Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to
near 25 kts as the system departs to the east. Additional marine
headlines may be needed for this period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Eckberg
MARINE.........Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion