719
FXUS63 KGRB 270600
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
100 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
  and early this evening across the area. A few storms could
  become strong to severe with damaging winds and small hail.

- Above normal temperatures for the next week, with highs mainly
  in the upper 70s and 80s.

- Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected tonight for
  the Lake Michigan nearshore waters south of Sturgeon Bay.
  Boaters should exercise caution on the bay of Green Bay this
  evening.

- There is a high risk for rip currents tonight for beaches along
  Lake Michigan in Manitowoc County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The front that brought last evenings shower and thunderstorm will
stall and remain as a semi-stationary front across central
Wisconsin today. This front will be the impetus for additional
showers and thunderstorms as a mid level shortwave dives south
through the western Great Lakes later today. SBCAPEs this
afternoon are expected to be 1500 to 2500 J/kg with a bit better
bulk shear values around 30 knots. Recent CAMs runs are a bit more
generous with coverage of showers and thunderstorms with the
shortwave in the vicinity of the semi-stationary front; therefore,
will raise POPs across the entire region, especially given how
todays front overperformed. The severe weather potential is
similar with a marginal risk for strong to severe storms given the
decent instability and better shear values. DCAPE values around
1000 J/kg indicate damaging winds would be the main threat with
the best CAPE thickness just below the hail growth zone,
indicating only small hail is expected from the stronger storms.
Per the previous shift, adjusted highs down several degrees as we
will be on the north side of the aforementioned front with similar
highs carried over from that shift.

The front should then move south as a cold front through the rest
of Wisconsin this evening, which will usher in a period of dry
weather across the region late in the week and continuing through
early next week as high pressure builds in across the Great Lakes.
Other than Thursday, when temperatures will be around normal,
readings will rise above normal into early next week, with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The warmest day will be Friday when
highs could approach or hit 80 degrees. Despite the Canadian high
settling overhead, temperatures at night, even in northern
Wisconsin, will remain above 40 degrees.

A period of gusty north-northeast winds this evening will bring a
period of high waves and strong rip currents to Manitowoc County.
Therefore, a Beach Hazards Statement has been issued from this
evening through early Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will come to an
end by 06z Wed south of Highway 29. Some patchy MVFR CIGS
are possible towards sunrise across the north. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning. Another
round of thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. Heavy
rain may result in visibilities dropping into the MVFR category,
but high based storms will result in VFR CIGS. The storms should
end by 23z Wed to 01z Thu.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late tonight
for WIZ050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion