835
FXUS63 KGRB 242330
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued late tonight through
  Sunday morning. Wind chills of 20 to 35 below zero are expected.

- The coldest of the air departs Sunday; however, temperatures
  remain well below normal into next week with winds chills below
  zero most of next week. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed
  Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Mainly dry through next week, with only small chances for light
  snow early-mid next week, especially in northern Wisconsin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Bitterly Cold Temps & Wind Chills Through Next Week:

Temperatures have warmed across the region this afternoon, wind
wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero where there was wind. Clear to
mostly clear skies for much of the night will once again allow
temperatures to plummet precipitously once the sun sets. Lows
tonight are expected to be a few degrees warmer, but still fall to
25 to 30 below zero across the north, around 10 below across the
Fox Valley, and the single digits below zero across the lakeshore.
Winds tonight are expected to be fairly calm; however, it will
only take a few knots of wind to send wind chills plummeting to 20
to 35 below zero. In addition, Sunday morning winds are expected
to pick up a bit to 5 mph, which will also send wind chills
falling despite warming temperatures after sunrise. Therefore,
will issue a Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight through
noon Sunday as some areas like north-central Wisconsin reach
criteria without any wind whatsoever. A few sites could reach
Extreme Cold Warning criteria; however, this should be brief and
not ubiquitous given the fairly calm winds expected tonight.
Locations may rise above criteria before noon on Sunday, and if
they do the headline will be cancelled early as this morning was
evidence that the cold wind chills can linger well into the
morning.

Temperatures are expected to recover into the single digits above
zero pretty much everywhere during the day on Sunday. However,
that "warmth" will be short lived as temperatures are expected to
once again plummet below zero Sunday night. Lows Sunday night are
expected to range from the upper teens below zero across the
north, to the single digits below zero across the Fox Valley and
lakeshore. A tightening pressure gradient due to a low passing
through the Ohio Valley will cause winds to be a bit more gusty
Sunday night, with wind speeds of 5 to 10 mph for much of the
night. This will once again send wind chills plummeting Sunday
night to 20 to 35 below zero, likely necessitating a Cold Weather
Advisory Sunday night into Monday morning.

Temperatures will only slowly moderate next week as the arctic
air loosens its grip on the region, but it will remain well below
normal. Highs will recover into the single digits and eventually
teens above zero, but wind chills are expected to continue to be
below zero for much of next week, with only brief times above zero
some afternoons.

Snow Chances:

As a strong winter storm impacts the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic
this weekend, a lake effect snow band is expected to develop over
Lake Michigan as winds converge across the central/eastern part
of the lake. Winds will attempt to shift to the northeast for a
time late tonight into Sunday, allowing to band to drift toward
the WI shore line. However, latest CAMs showing it is unlikely to
make it, keeping the snow chances offshore. LREF and NBM
probabilities of measurable snow are under 15%; therefore, will
keep the forecast dry.

A clipper will race across the northern Great Lakes Monday night,
bringing the next chance for light snow. It looks to be rather
moisture-starved and will be quick mover, so not expecting much
in the way of accumulation. LREF showing probs of measurable
precip ranging from 20% over Wood County to near 80% near the MI
border. But probs of over a half inch are under 10%. NBM not as
excited about this snow chance, which keeps things basically dry.
Given the NWP model consensus will introduce a chance (20-30%) for
light snow Monday night as the mid level shortwave is quite
vigorous and the high snow ratios mean it will not take much to
squeeze out some snow. This appears to be another high chance-low
QPF event that the NBM typically underforecasts per previous
events this winter. Northwest winds behind the clipper could
touch of a few lake effect snow showers across north-central
Wisconsin into Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday afternoon as
mid and high clouds stream across the area. On Sunday,
there may be a cloud deck between three and five thousand
feet that develops across central and north-central WI.
Light south/southwest winds around 5 knots will veer
NW after 04z and then continue through Sunday afternoon
between 5 and 10 knots, with gusts up to 14 knots Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday
for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion