858
FXUS63 KGRB 080623
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
123 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms along with
  heavy rain possible this afternoon and evening, primarily across
  central and east-central Wisconsin. Damaging winds and localized
  flooding will be the main threats, but small hail and an
  isolated tornado are also possible.

- Continue to monitor the potential for excessive heat early next
  week as high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on
  Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A complex of thunderstorms across Minnesota was working into
northwest WI early this morning. There have been a few warnings
with this complex so far. This complex is expected to move
into north-central WI between 09z-12z and across far northeast WI
after 12z. Several models continue to show convection developing
south of the current cluster of storms towards 12z that could
impact locations south of Highway 29. Previous forecast had pops,
thus not much change in this area. Later this morning into the
afternoon, several solutions to contend with that leave some
questions in how widespread severe weather will be. This was
seen in the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Outlook that has shifted
the Slight Risk (Level 2) is little further south. The latest
HRRR would support the morning convection south of Highway 29
with another complex developing along and south of the Highway 29
corridor later this afternoon, between 2 pm and 4 pm west of the
Fox Valley, and from 4 pm to 7 pm for Green Bay and the Fox Valley
east to the lakeshore. Bufkit soundings indicated 1,000 to 2,000
J/KG of CAPE and 0-6 km shear values around 30 knots to support
severe storms. Strong/damaging winds and heavy rainfall that could
lead to localized flooding are the main risk. Small hail and an
isolated tornado are also possible. Showers and scattered storms
will continue tonight, ending across the north late. Showers and
a few storms will continue across east-central WI through the
night into Thursday.

The chances of showers and storms continue into Thursday afternoon
across central and east-central WI, although severe weather is not
expected. Dry conditions expected this weekend into early next
week. 500mb ridge building across the central United States early
next week will bring well above normal temperatures along the
potential for excessive heat and heat related impacts as high
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to middle
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected late this evening, with increasing
mid and high clouds. Some patchy fog may develop for a time as
dewpoints remain the mid 60s in spots.

As a cold front slowly sags into the region, clusters of showers
and storms and lower clouds are likely to impact the region from
09Z-16Z, with an additional round(s) Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Continued to use TEMPO groups at all TAF sites to highlight the
greatest potential for storms, but timing details will need to be
fine-tuned as exact timing of the storms becomes clearer. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities (locally IFR) will be possible within
the shower/storm activity. Lingering showers and a few storms are
expected Wednesday evening.

Winds will remain mainly under 5 kts overnight, then become south
to southwest Wednesday morning, with a few gusts around 15 kts.
Winds will shift to the north and become variable Wednesday
afternoon and evening behind the front. Fog is likely late
Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Bersch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion