850
FXUS63 KGRB 101115
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
615 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected this
  weekend with inland high temperatures into the upper 70s to
  middle 80s. Record or near-record highs are possible.

- 60-70% percent chance for rain across the region Monday night.
  A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- Another 50-60% chance for widespread rain late next week with
  much cooler temperatures arriving next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A tight pressure gradient is expected on Saturday as the region
will be in between a departing high across the northeast and an
approaching low developing over the northern Plains. This will
create gusty southerly winds across Wisconsin, allowing for robust
warm air advection. Winds are expected to gust to 30-35 mph
during the day as daytime highs soar into the lower 80s away from
the lakeshore. Closer to the lake highs are only expected to rise
into the lower 70s. Winds will subsequently weaken Saturday night
as the atmosphere decouples with a looser pressure gradient
leading to calmer winds during the day on Sunday. Despite less
windy conditions on Sunday, highs will be similar to Saturday.
Highs this weekend could approach or even break record highs both
days.

Precipitation chances early next week look to be delayed a bit as
the main energy from an approaching cold front looks to swing
through Monday night instead of Monday afternoon and evening. This
means relatively low (10-20%) chances for rain Monday afternoon
with a better chance (60-70%) Monday evening into the overnight
hours. Despite the relatively high chance for rain, the amount of
rain that is expected to fall is fairly minimal. The probability
for 0.1 inches or greater has risen a bit to 40-50% but not enough
that the QPF should be appreciably higher.

Another more widespread chance for precipitation may comes during
the end of next week as global ensembles show a deepening low
pressure system lifting across the western Great Lakes. Still a
lot of uncertainty with the details of this system, but this looks
like the best chance for a soaking rain over the next 7-10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. An area of
mid to high clouds developed over the western TAF sites early this
morning that is expected to move across the eastern TAF sites,
exiting and dissipating by the late morning. Besides a few high
clouds at times, sunny/clear skies are expected for the remainder
of this TAF period.

The other story for this TAF period are gusty south winds,
followed by a period of LLWS after 00z Sun. This morning`s
southeasterly winds will turn south over the next couple of hours
and increase with gusts to 20 to near 30 kts by the afternoon. The
LLWS will occur around sunset and continue through the end of this
TAF period with winds just above the surface from the south-
southwest at 45-50 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Southeasterly winds will increase overnight, turning southerly and
increasing further on Saturday and decreasing slightly on Sunday.
Waves are expected to build to 4-9 ft on Lake Michigan overnight
through Saturday night. South winds to 30 kts are possible on
Saturday and Saturday night. Small craft advisories are in effect
through at least Sunday morning as winds and waves are expected
to slowly subside through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Daily record and forecast high temperatures are shown below for
Saturday, October 10, and Sunday, October 11.

High Temperatures for October 10:

              Record             Forecast
Green Bay:    82/1938               82
Wausau:       82/1928,1930,1938     83
Rhinelander:  81/1938               83
Appleton:     79/1963               81

High Temperatures for October 11:

              Record        Forecast
Green Bay:    83/2024          79
Wausau:       81/1928          82
Rhinelander:  81/1910,1928     82
Appleton:     82/1928,2024     79.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kruk
MARINE.........Kurimski
CLIMATE........Kruk

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion