988
FXUS63 KGRB 052348
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
548 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon into Friday, with
  the strongest wind gusts expected this afternoon and evening.
  There is a 40-60% chance of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater
  across northern Door County.

- Scattered snow showers are expected across northern Wisconsin
  late this afternoon and tonight. A light dusting of snow is
  expected at most spots. Localized bands of snow could produce
  locally higher amounts in Vilas County.

- Near normal temperatures on Friday and Saturday, then above
  normal temperatures expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A cold front moved across the area overnight and early this
morning. Behind the front, gusty northerly winds were noted as
temperatures ranged from the upper 30s far north to around 50
across east-central WI at noon. Scattered rain showers were
noted across the north and across northeast WI.

Latest model guidance suggest strong cold advection across
northeast Wisconsin this afternoon behind the front. Bufkit
soundings indicated steep low level lapse rates that will help
mix down the stronger winds aloft. Went a little higher on wind
gusts this afternoon based on the fact latest wind gusts across
central and north-central Wisconsin were a little higher than
numerical guidance. Bufkit soundings still support the strongest
wind gusts over northern Door County where gusts to around 40 mph
are possible. Significant differences in the NBM and LREF probability
guidance for winds of 40 mph greater over northern Door County.
The NBM indicated only a 20% chance of gusts over 40 mph while
the LREF was at 60-70% Looking at bufkit data at Deaths Door
(northern Door County), soundings would support wind gust to or
around 40 mph, especially between 2 pm and 7 pm. Meanwhile over
the north, precipitation is likely to change over to snow over
north-central WI. A light dusting of snow will be possible,
especially across Vilas County. Of note, the latest HRRR indicated
bands of snow moving into north-central and far northeast
Wisconsin during the night, thus there is a very small chance for
localized higher snowfall amounts over a half inch if these bands
materialize. Confidence is low if this would occur, and exactly
where it would occur. Lastly, an upper level disturbance combined
with the northerly flow could bring a chance of rain showers to far
eastern Wisconsin later tonight into Friday morning, especially
across Door County.

Otherwise, tranquil conditions are expected through the middle of
next week. After near normal temperatures on Saturday, temperatures
should run well above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 547 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

MVFR to low-end VFR CIGS will prevail through the TAF period as
low pressure slowly exits to the lower Great Lakes and high
pressure builds in from Manitoba/Ontario Canada. Colder air
flowing across Lake Superior and upslope lifting will lead to
lake effect snow showers over far northern WI, with a mix of
rain/snow transitioning to mainly light snow showers and flurries
this evening at RHI. The light snow will persist over northern WI
much of the night. Elsewhere, a few light rain showers, sprinkles
will occur at times into Friday morning.

North winds around 10 kts will diminish later on Friday. Winds may
gust over 20 kts for a few hours this evening in eastern WI.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 9 pm this for the bay and
lake. The strongest core of winds expected to move across the area
during the mid afternoon into early this evening. After the Gale
Warning expires, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 pm
Friday due to the continued gusty winds and high waves.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......JLA
MARINE.........Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion