127
FXUS63 KGRB 091105
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
505 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front will bring scattered (20-30% chance) showers
  Wednesday into Thursday, followed by lake effect showers across
  north-central Wisconsin.

- Dry and above normal temperatures to start the week, dropping to
  near normal towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

After a period of quiet, our next chance for active weather
arrives Wednesday as a mid-level shortwave and accompanying cold
front cross the region. Moisture and forcing along the front
itself appear relatively meager, so continued the 20 to 30%
chance across most of the area to signify some on and off
scattered shower potential. Northerly flow then follows the cold
front passage by Wednesday night, so would expect some lake effect
showers to pick up overnight and last well through Thursday. This
lake effect would primarily affect portions of far north-central
Wisconsin along the Upper Peninsula border and possible some areas
along the Lake Michigan shoreline including portions of Door,
Kewaunee, and Manitowoc as winds shift northeastwards Thursday.
Rain totals during the day Wednesday will be fairly light
everywhere, with probabilistic guidance painting out only a 15-20%
chance of exceeding a tenth of an inch. P-type will predominantly
be rain, except for a brief window for some light flurries late
Wednesday night and again Thursday night if lake effect showers in
the north sustain themselves.

The continued cold air advection through the latter part of the
work week will bring down high temperatures into the 40s for most
of the area, which will be near or a degree or two below normal
for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected during the TAF period with only mid
and high clouds streaming in at times. These clouds will provide a
broken deck of high clouds today as a warm front tracks through
the western Great Lakes. The clouds will then clear out from west
to east late this afternoon through this evening as a weak cold
front tracks right behind it. Other than the high clouds, not much
else is expected with this rather dry system.

Light surface winds will become gusty from the southwest during
the day. Winds will then become light from the west this evening
as increasing winds just off the surface brings a period of LLWS
tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion