232
FXUS63 KGRB 102343
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
643 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog likely (70% confidence) overnight into early
  Saturday morning

- Minor heat impact levels expected (90% confidence) with
  potential moderate impacts (50% confidence) early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Scattered showers observed on radar across north-central
Wisconsin this afternoon are expected to continue until mid
evening. Cannot rule out a couple of lightning strikes with the
strongest cells, but lack of a well-defined forcing mechanism
will keep the convection disorganized. Overnight into early
Saturday, some patchy fog will likely again develop for a few
hours, particularly over central and north-central Wisconsin.

A few more scattered showers will be possible with diurnal
heating Saturday afternoon and early evening, particularly
across north-central Wisconsin. Again cannot rule out a
lightning strike or two, but most places will remain dry with
mostly clear skies.

The multi-model ensemble consensus strongly points toward a
ridge building in across the area late this weekend into early
next week. This will bring hotter temperatures, with highs
soaring into the lower 90s across most of the region. Dewpoints
are not likely to be as extreme as the heat wave back in early
July, this time in the mid to upper 60s, yielding heat indices
in the mid to locally upper 90s. But this time, the drier air
mass also means little chance for cooling clouds and rain
showers. The bottom line is minor to moderate heat impacts are
likely Monday and Tuesday and people outdoors should be prepared
and stay hydrated.

Looking ahead into the middle and latter half of next week, the
ridge axis shifts south and west, putting Wisconsin in a general
northwest flow pattern, which should bring the temperatures down
somewhat with gradually increasing chances for scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms as the week goes on.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Scattered high clouds stream across tonight. Fog should develop
08z-12z at RHI (LIFR-IFR) where rain this afternoon has added
moisture to otherwise drying boundary layer. Due to the drying
boundary layer and min temps mainly staying above the crossover
temps from this afternoon, have removed mention of fog elsewhere
for late tonight.

On Saturday, VFR cu (040-060) should blossom, especially northern
WI late morning through the afternoon. A stray shower or storm
(

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion