167
FXUS63 KGRB 070800
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
200 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20 to 60 percent for light snow return tonight, but any accumulations
  should be mainly under an inch. Minor impacts to travel could
  occur early Sunday where snow falls.

- After a short-lived cool down today, temperatures will trend
  above average into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Precipitation Chances:

A weak shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow will slide
southeast tonight. Overall, snow amounts look to be quite light,
although CAMs show some variation in placement of any
frontogenetically enhanced banding. HREF ensemble max snow amounts
exceed 1-2" in spots (should a stronger fgen band develop), but
overall most areas will be well under an inch with forecast
soundings indicating rather dry profiles. Although the moisture
depth shallows out on Sunday, some guidance suggests enough low-
level moisture and lift in warm advection and weak southerly flow
for some patchy freezing drizzle, but confidence right now is
low.

Beyond the weekend, there`s little signal for more impactful precip
event through the first half of the week. Some low end probabilities
(10-30%) exist early in the week as a shortwave trough passes along
the Canadian border. With the push of the warmer air aloft, precip
types could be a concern, with EPS precip type meteograms indicating
low end (10-15%) chances for very light freezing rain Monday
night.

Additional shortwave energy will cascade through the flow through
late week, but predictability drops off. Cluster analysis from the
global ensembles indicate notable differences late in the week in
the longwave pattern with some solutions suggesting drier northwest
flow while a subset of members(~20%) indicate a more zonal flow with
troughing across the Great Plains and somewhat higher precip
chances. Given these differences, 20-30% precipitation chances are
reasonable at this time.


Temperatures:

Temperatures will briefly fall back below average today as Canadian
high pressure sinks south across the Great Lakes. Even by Sunday,
temperatures will begin to trend back upward as the high shifts east
and southerly flow develops. Milder Pacific air will continue to
spill eastward into the first half of the coming week as the flow
aloft becomes quasizonal. Coincident with the stronger push of warm
advection, 850 mb temps via global ensembles (GEFS/EPS/CMCE) push
the 90th percentile relative to climo by Monday afternoon into
Tuesday with high temps potentially eclipsing 40F in spots,
especially on Tuesday as winds shift westerly. With the relatively
zonal flow pattern expected to persist through the week, above
average temperatures continue to be favored (60-80%) through late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 949 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

High pressure building across the western Great Lakes will maintain
mostly clear skies and quiet weather tonight through Saturday.
MVFR ceilings continue to linger near the U.P. border, but these
are expected to dissipate over the next few hours as drier air
arrives.

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through Saturday
afternoon. Mid and high clouds will increase throughout the
day with bases remaining above 9000 ft through 00Z Sunday.
Light north to northwest winds at 3 to 6 kts will become light
and variable as the ridge axis crosses the area.

The chance for light snow increases after 00Z Sunday as a
fast-moving disturbance approaches. While most terminals
will remain VFR through 06Z Sunday, cloud bases will steadily
lower. Central and north-central sites including KAUW, KCWA,
and KRHI may see conditions approach MVFR thresholds toward
the end of the period.

Confidence is high for VFR through Saturday afternoon, with
lower confidence regarding the exact timing and coverage of
snow Saturday night.

Outlook...Light snow is expected late on Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Most locations will see a dusting, but up to an
inch is possible across far northeast Wisconsin and the Door
Peninsula.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
     LMZ541>543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion