604
FXUS63 KGRB 031837
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
137 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers Monday (20-40%). Best chance of thunder
  during the afternoon across east-central Wisconsin. No severe
  is weather expected.

- Breezy conditions expected Monday. There is a 40-80% chance of
  wind gusts over 35 mph, with the strongest gusts across eastern
  Wisconsin.

- Warmer through Monday, then temperatures fall below normal for
  the rest of the week. Risk for Frost/Freeze Headlines starts up
  again Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A cold front will continue pushing through northern Wisconsin this
afternoon, which will switch the wind direction from southwest to
westerly. CAMs models continue to show isolated showers and
thunderstorms popping up across the far northeastern portion of
the CWA this afternoon as the cold front moves through the area,
with a reservoir of 200-400 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. Gusty
winds of 20 to 30 mph will continue through early this evening
until the atmosphere decouples.

Another cold front is slated to move through the area on Monday.
Conditions ahead of the front will be warm and breezy, with highs
over 70 for all but north-central Wisconsin and wind gusts over
35 mph, especially across eastern Wisconsin. Despite the front
pushing into the warmer regime, marginally steep mid-level lapse
rates and overall dry airmass lead to instability that is not all
that robust with a narrow ribbon of MLCAPEs around 500 J/kg. That
being said, the chance for thunder is still on the table since the
front tracks through the area around peak heating, maximizing the
available instability that is available. No severe weather or
heavy rain is expected; however, given the strong winds aloft and
steeper low-level lapse rates, there could be a stronger storm
that produces isolated wind gusts of 40-50 mph.

Behind this cold front, cooler conditions are expected across the
region for the rest of the week as temperatures fall below normal
values for this time of year. The overall pattern for the rest of
the week is expected to mainly be dry; however, a few showers
could pop up at times as the cooler air aloft creates steep low
level lapse rates. There is a better signal for showers on
Thursday as a vigorous shortwave is progged to drop southeast
through the upper trough across the Great Lakes. The cooler
temperatures mean the frost/freeze potential will return beginning
Tuesday night and likely will last through at least Thursday
night, if not Friday night.

Temperatures bounce back to at or above normal next weekend as
warmer ridge over the western CONUS begins to make shift toward
the Plains and the midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A weak cold front, analyzed in the middle of the area around TAF
issuance, will continue moving east through the rest of the TAF
sites early this afternoon. The cold front should move through
without much fanfare and marked by a shift in wind direction from
southwest to west. The only small exception would be over far
northeast WI into Door County where a few more showers could pop
up this afternoon. Conditions will be VFR, even where the rain
occurs.

Surface winds will gust to 20-25 knots this afternoon, then
diminish this evening. LLWS is expected to develop late tonight
into early Monday morning across all of the TAF sites, then
diminish as winds mix out later Monday morning and surface winds
once again gust to 20-25 knots out of the southwest.

Looking ahead, another cold front will shift over the area late
on Monday. Ahead of the front southwest winds will gust 25-
30 kts. There could also be scattered showers and storms on
Monday afternoon, especially over eastern WI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion