241
FXUS63 KGRB 241133
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
633 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.UPDATE...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite and surface observations indicate an area of low stratus
and fog has developed and is spreading across central and north-
central Wisconsin early this morning. While there are some
visibilities that are near one quarter of a mile, there are
several observations that are one half of a mile or just over a
mile. Therefore, a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated quite yet
as the lowest visibilities are more transient. Any fog should burn
off a few hours after sunrise but will be around to affect the
morning commute.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense will affect the morning commute across portions of
  central and north-central Wisconsin.

- High pressure will maintain mainly dry weather for the region
  through early next week.

- Next widespread rain chances arrive during the middle part of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A large sprawling Hudson Bay high will keep the weather mainly dry
through the early part of next week with some minor exceptions.
The first exception will be tonight when a mid level shortwave
tracks through the western Great Lakes region, which could bring
the chance (20-30%) for light rain across central Wisconsin. Any
rain from this shortwave would be very light, at most a few
hundredths of an inch. The next exception to this dry pattern is
this weekend as a strung out low approaches the high and
subsequently gets pushed to the north and south as it approaches
the western Great Lakes. Rain chances have fallen all the way to
10-20% Saturday night into Sunday morning as this system
approaches the area and as was mentioned before it mostly likely
will remain dry for much of the area. The best chance would be
across western portions of central and north- central Wisconsin.

The best chance for a widespread soaking rain still appears to be
during the middle part of next week when the high retreats,
allowing a low pressure system from the southern Plains to lift
northeast towards the western Great Lakes region starting on
Tuesday and lasting through the middle of next week. With PWATs
reaching 90th percentile relative to climo and more concrete
forcing present, initial thoughts point toward this being a heavy
stratiform rain setup. Will continue to monitor trends throughout
the week. Otherwise, temperatures will read mainly in the 60s
during the extended, occasionally warming into the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VLIFR/LIFR fog is currently over the central and north-central
Wisconsin TAF sites, with VFR conditions across the east-central
Wisconsin TAF sites. The fog may lift into a low status deck
later this morning before dissipating shortly after sunrise
(after 13Z). High clouds will begin to spread into central and
north-central Wisconsin during the morning with most of the
region having BKN cigs by this afternoon. There is a low chance
(15%) for light showers to push into central WI after 06Z Friday,
however, aviation impacts should be minimal.

Easterly winds remain under 10 knots through this afternoon with
light and variable winds tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.........Kurimski
DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion