156
FXUS63 KGRB 230959
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
359 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through Saturday morning.
  Wind chills of 35 to 50 below zero are expected this morning.
  Wind chills around 25 to 40 below zero are expected tonight
  into Saturday morning.

- The coldest of the air departs Saturday/Sunday, but temperatures
  remain well below normal into next week with winds chills below
  zero most of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Dangerous Cold Temps and Wind Chills Today Into Saturday Morning &
Well Below Normal Temps Into Next Week:

The strong push of CAA yesterday and overnight (with 850mb temps
plummeting to between -30C and -35C) has ushered in dangerously
cold temps and wind chills this morning. As of 3AM, most locations
had wind chills between -30F and -50F! The widespread wind chill
readings of 30F below or colder will continue through the
morning hours, with the coldest spots touching 50 below for a
time. Wind chills will remain in the -25F to -40F range most of
the afternoon/evening, then it will become a cat and mouse game of
where/when the winds go calm overnight into Saturday morning.
While it was a slam dunk we would reach warning criteria this
morning, it is a little more muddled tonight into early Saturday
as some clouds will start to move in from the south and winds will
attempt to decouple. Where winds do go calm (most likely in central
WI as they are closest to the center of the high pressure), we
will fall below threshold, but it will remain very cold with lows
in the teens to around 30 below zero and any puff of wind will
create wind chills at/near criteria. After coordination with
surrounding offices, and in an effort to keep things as simple as
possible (given some of the uncertainty regarding winds) have
decided to just extend the current Extreme Cold Warning until 15z
Saturday. If it become clear winds will decouple and we won`t
reach warning criteria across parts of the area overnight into
Saturday, we can convert the warning to an advisory. Bottom line,
the dangerously cold air will continue into Saturday morning. We
will approach/set some new record low max temps today (current
Wausau and Antigo record is -6 which should be broken), and we
will approach some record lows tonight.

Temps will moderate only slightly as we head into early next week,
as highs only recover into the single digits and teens. Wind
chills will drop back close to Cold Weather Advisory levels Sunday
night into Monday morning (-15F to -35F). Below zero wind chills
are expected to continue for much of next week.

Snow Chances:

As a weak shortwave trough swings across the northern Great Lakes
today, along with some lake effect activity off of Lake Superior,
can`t rule out a few flurries or light snow showers, mainly over
northern WI this morning. But only a dusting of accumulation is
possible. Minor drifting snow will remain possible across the area
as west/northwest winds continue to gust to 20-30 mph. The
drifting snow threat will wane later today into this evening, as
winds decrease. Any light snow or drifting snow on the roads
could create some slippery spots, especially with the frigid temps
in place making any road treatments ineffective.

Next chance for snow arrives across far eastern WI (lake shore
counties) Saturday night into Sunday as a powerful winter storm
tracks into the mid-Atlantic. The synoptic/system snow looks to
stay just to our south with the latest track, but a lake effect
snow band is likely to be meandering over Lake Michigan during the
weekend, and as winds attempt to turn onshore for a time, the
band will make a run for the WI shoreline. Confidence is low on
how this band will behave and whether it will actually make it
onshore. LREF probabilities of measurable snow at MTW is around
50%, but under 20% for over a half inch (NBM under 30% for both).
So while this will be something to watch, don`t think it will be
too impactful.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1112 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Isolated snow showers were moving southeast across the region late
this evening, producing brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. Anticipate these
snow showers to come to an end by 09z Fri. Some clearing looks to
still occur mainly for the east-central WI TAF sites. Less certain
on the clearing at the central WI TAF sites due to northwest flow
keeping lake-enhanced clouds moving over much of northern WI,
however, conditions should remain VFR. Additional clouds look to
develop during Friday afternoon, but again, remaining with VFR
conditions.

West to northwest winds are expected for this TAF period, with
gusts of 20-25 kts. Winds will subside Friday evening.

For ground operations, dangerously cold temperatures and wind
chills are expected tonight through Saturday morning. Wind chills
of 25 to 45 degrees below zero are expected Friday and Saturday
mornings.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM CST Saturday for WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Kruk

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion