141
FXUS63 KGRB 042336
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
536 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers for the rest of the afternoon into the evening,
  with periods of showers later tonight into Thursday as cold
  front moves across the region.

- There is a 50-90% chance of an additional 0.25" of rain tonight
  into Thursday across northern Wisconsin where the worse drought
  conditions exists.

- Gusty northwest winds will develop during the day Thursday, and
  continue Thursday night into Friday. There is a 40-60% chance of
  wind gusts to 45 mph across northern Door County Thursday
  afternoon and evening.

- Light snow showers will be possible across the north tonight. A
  light dusting of snow is possible, especially across Vilas
  County.

- Near normal temperatures on Friday and Saturday, then above
  normal temperatures next week.

- 8-14 Day temperature outlook (Nov 11-17) from the Climate
  Prediction Center indicated a 97% chance of near or above normal
  temperatures at Green Bay, Rhinelander and Wausau. That means
  there is only a 3% chance of below normal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Another mild November afternoon with temperatures in the middle
50s to middle 60s. The coolest readings were near Marshfield where
cooler air was starting to advect into our southwest counties.
Radar continued to show scattered showers across northeast WI
early this afternoon. A few showers were approaching 50 dBZ,
thus would not be surprised if there was a few rumbles of thunder.

For the rest of the afternoon into tonight. convection should
remain scattered in nature as cold front and upper closed low
over Minnesota opens up and moves into the area overnight into
Thursday. A steadier round of rain is expected across the north
late tonight into Thursday morning in association with the upper
trough, with more scattered showers to the south. There is a
50-90% chance of an additional 0.25" of rain tonight into Thursday
across northern Wisconsin where the worse drought conditions
exists.

As the cold front moves across the area on Thursday, gusty northwest
winds will develop from west to east during the day Thursday and
continue into Thursday night. Wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph are expected,
with locally higher gusts over northern Door County. There is a
40-60% chance of wind gusts to 45 mph across northern Door County
Thursday afternoon and evening. If winds reach this speed, a Wind
Advisory may be needed for Door County. Meanwhile, the northwest
winds may bring a chance of snow showers to far northern Wisconsin
Thursday night. Latest forecast has a dusting of snow across the
north, especially Vilas County. So far this fall, only a few
flurries were noted across the far north in October.

Latest model data would suggest tranquil conditions this weekend
through the middle of next week. Near normal temperatures are
expected on Friday and Saturday, then above normal temperatures
next week. The latest 8-14 Day temperature outlook (Nov 11-17)
from the Climate Prediction Center indicated a 97% chance of near
or above normal temperatures at Green Bay, Rhinelander and Wausau.
That means there is only a 3% chance of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs remains in place across the region this
evening but will give way to more IFR during the overnight hours
through Thursday morning. Visibility has generally been VFR, but
some patchy fog and drizzle moving into the area could bring
periods of MVFR to IFR visibility early overnight. Patchy fog
will be something to watch as well, as this could bring ceilings
and visibility back towards IFR. Drizzle aside, widespread showers
are unlikely during the early portions of the overnight hours
before additional rain returns early on Thursday.

Surface winds turn southwesterly and then west overnight. Expect
occasional gusts to continue to mix to the surface up to 15 to 20
kts, increasing to 20 to 25 kts during the day Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A prolonged period of gusty southerly winds and high waves
will come to an end later tonight on the lake. The Small
Craft Advisory on the lake expires at 6 am Thursday. The break in
the hazardous conditions will be brief as gusty northwest winds
are expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into
Friday. Gale force gusts are possible Thursday afternoon and
evening. A Gale Warning has been posted from noon to 9 pm on
Thursday for the bay and lake. After the Gale Warning expires,
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 9 pm Thursday to 6 pm
Friday due to the gusty winds and high waves.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Uhlmann
MARINE.........Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion