946
FXUS63 KGRB 192026
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
226 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow possible late tonight into Saturday morning.
  Accumulations will largely be focused towards north-central
  Wisconsin, with a dusting possible across central and east-
  central Wisconsin.

- Westerly gales are expected late Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Another clipper system is set to track through the northern Great
Lakes tonight through Saturday. Winds aloft will be on the
increase again through the lower to mid levels as a push of warmer
air arrives, but only a few gusts should mix down through around
midnight. As the cold air swings through with the main portion of
the clipper, fairly decent frontogenetic forcing should bring snow
into north-central Wisconsin. This feature is mainly focused
across the border along the Upper Peninsula, but cold air
advection over the rest of the region will likely suffice for at
least some flurries or light snow. Still, snow amounts around a
couple inches will largely be focused towards Vilas County, with
amounts tapering to around an inch by the time you get to a line
from Rhinelander to Iron Mountain, and lesser amounts further
south. Probabilistic guidance indicates areas south of a line from
Merrill to Marinette to Sturgeon Bay have less than a 20% chance
of exceeding an inch of snowfall, with less than a 10% chance of
exceeding 2 inches across much of north-central Wisconsin, save
for far northern Vilas County.

Next round of precipitation is then in the forecast for late Sunday
night into Monday evening. Although again precipitation amounts
will be light, this may yet be another period that bears watching
for mixed precipitation or freezing drizzle as a warm layer will
be in the area which may hamper ice production to a relatively
colder surface. Where the warmer air lines up as we get closer
will drive the precipitation type for this feature and the
impacts.

Temperatures for the period will see a couple swings through the
first few days of the forecast, with highs mainly in the teens
today and Sunday, but in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Saturday.
Then highs steady out for much of the middle of next week, with
highs mainly lingering in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

An MVFR stratus deck in place across the region is expected to
lift north this afternoon, leaving VFR conditions in place across
the region. Gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will ease
below 10 knots by this afternoon.

High clouds will move back into the region this evening ahead of
the next low pressure system. Light snow is then expected later
tonight into Saturday morning as a clipper system tracks through
the northern Great Lakes. Conditions could drop to MVFR with the
snow showers, especially across north-central Wisconsin. Snowfall
amounts should generally be light, with a dusting south of KRHI
and an inch or two at or just north of KRHI. LLWS is expected to
develop as winds increase just below the surface tonight, with
southwest winds of 30-40 knots, turning westerly Saturday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Strong southerly winds will build across Lake Michigan tonight,
with a few gale force gusts possible; however, a long enough
period of gales is not expected to upgrade to a Gale Warning. Gale
force winds are expected across all areas late Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening with cold air advection bringing gusty
winds to the surface. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale
Warning for the waters during this period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion