044
FXUS63 KGRB 091800
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1200 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered (30 to 50% chance) showers possible Wednesday into
  Thursday. Potential for lake effect flurries continuing over far
  north-central Wisconsin and along the shoreline through Friday.

- Dry with above normal temperatures today and Tuesday, dropping
  to near normal toward the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Vicinity warm front has triggered an increase in mid clouds early
this afternoon, which should stick around into the evening.
Trailing cold front then tracks through the area late tonight,
shifting winds to the northwest. Front will be moisture starved,
so not anticipating any precip with its passage. Chance PoPs (30
to 50%) are then introduced Wednesday morning as northern stream
trough digs down into the Great Lakes. Wind shift will kick off
lake effect showers during this time, continuing over the typical
lake effect belts (far north-central Wisconsin and along the Lake
Michigan shoreline) through Friday due to steady stream of CAA and
closed upper low sitting to our east. Cold air intrusion (-7 to
-9C 850 mb temperatures) will result in the potential for some
flurries mixing in with light rain at times. However, overall QPF
should be fairly limited, with probabilistic guidance showing only
a 20 to 50% signal for receiving 0.1" of liquid through Friday
afternoon. If lake effect flurries are able to sustain themselves,
could see a tenth or two end up falling, though no accumulations
are expected.

Outlook... Solid signal (50 to 70%) exists for above normal
temperatures through at least the end of the month with El Nino
driving the synoptic pattern. Additionally, omega ridge looks to
set up toward the end of the week, which should result in a
prolonged period of dry weather to accompany the mild conditions.
With D4 drought in far northern Wisconsin, will have to monitor
for fire weather concerns over the next several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF period, with mid and
high clouds streaming over the area this afternoon in proximity to
a warm front. Trailing cold front late this evening and tonight
will then scatter out cloud cover from west to east. Overall, no
impacts to aviation are expected.

Surface winds gradually increase through the morning, gusting
between 15 and 20 knots at all terminals this afternoon. LLWS then
develops from northwest to southeast at around 00Z as 850 mb winds
increase to around 40 knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion