929
FXUS63 KGRB 141717
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1117 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through the middle of next week. Chances for light
  rain (25-40%) arrive on Thursday. Next Saturday looking rainy
  (chances up to 60-70%).

- Gradual warming trend through next week, with high confidence in
  above normal temperatures. Peak of warmth Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Despite high pressure ridge close by to the west, neutral to
weakly cyclonic and cool (inversion top temps still -4c to -6c)
northerly flow aloft is keeping lake clouds over northern and far
northeast/eastern Wisconsin across Door County and near Lake
Michigan, with even a few light showers, sprinkles noted recently
over Door County. Drying, high pressure finally win out, leading
to skies becoming mostly clear tonight into Sunday. One of the
colder nights of the season for most tonight with teens central
to north-central, and 20s elsewhere, except right near the
lakeshore. Warming trend begins on Sunday, with highs a nudge
above normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Dry conditions with additional warming continues through middle
of next week as amplified upper pattern keeps ridging locked in
over mid CONUS. On Thursday, mid-level trough moving onshore over
west coast this weekend swings across northern plains and western
Great Lakes. Main surface low passes to north of Lake Superior but
a surface trough should bring gusty winds and some showers to the
state. Not a great signal for SW winds to reach anything more
than 35 mph (chances 10-40%), but still could be breezy. Friday
starts off dry, with warm/moist advection bringing 20-40% chance
of showers back late in the day. Better signal for widespread
steady rain holds off until Friday night or Saturday. Decent
agreement that with stronger low, increasing SW flow aloft and
push of well above normal deeper moisture (PWATs), next Saturday
is looking wet, with chances for rain now up to 60-70%. Cooler air
lacking though, so even with the dynamic system, chances of snow
are limited (

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion