633
FXUS63 KGRB 041118
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
518 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain and gusty winds continue through Thursday.

- For drought stricken northern Wisconsin, there remains a 40-60% of
  over an inch of additional rainfall.

- Above normal temperatures are expected throughout most of the
  forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Active weather continues... Drier air brought a few longer breaks
to the on and off showers early overnight but the next round of
moisture will be set to arrive early Wednesday, bringing back
better shower coverage for the morning hours. Southerly flow then
continues at the surface during the day, but winds aloft are
expected to shift westwards, which will push out the better
moisture and possibly bring a longer break in the active weather
for the afternoon and evening hours, especially in east-central
Wisconsin. Some light showers are still expected to return by
Wednesday night into Thursday however, as wrap around moisture and
lingering upper support around the active low provide enough
forcing. No thunderstorms are expected in the forecast at this
time, so all mentions of storms have been removed. Additional
precipitation totals will mainly be focused across northern
Wisconsin with around 60-80% chance of at least an additional half
an inch of rainfall north of a line of Merrill to Wausaukee.
These same areas also have around 20-30% chance for an additional
inch of rainfall starting tomorrow morning. Further south, where
the moisture departs this afternoon, the probability of exceeding
half an inch of additional rainfall now sits around 20 or less for
the Fox Valley.

Behind the departing system, blustery northwest winds can be
expected that will usher in cooler air Thursday night. Above
normal temperatures are expected for most of the forecast, the
only exception being Friday which may be closer to normal. Mainly
dry conditions expected Friday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 517 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs along with VFR/MVFR VSBYs are expected
during the TAF period as on and off showers continue through the
period. Some VFR conditions are also possible at times, especially
across the eastern WI TAF sites. However, any forays into these
higher conditions should not last long given the abundant low
level moisture in place.

South to southeasterly surface winds will increase again later
this morning with gusts of 15-20 knots. Surface winds will ease
late this afternoon into this evening as they turn southwesterly,
especially across central and north-central Wisconsin.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A prolonged period of gusty south to southeast winds and large
waves on Lake Michigan will continue into Wednesday. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters
through Wednesday evening. Gusty winds on the bay should subside
late this afternoon where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until 6 PM. Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly
gusting to near 25 kts as the system departs to the east.
Additional marine headlines may be needed for this period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Uhlmann

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion