606
FXUS63 KGRB 252347
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
647 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances 20-40% over northern Wisconsin for the rest of the
  afternoon, and 30-60% mainly over central and north- central
  Wisconsin Monday night and Tuesday.

- Rain chances 40-70% Wednesday night across the entire area,
  including the potential for thunderstorms.

- Back to reality with near normal temperatures on Monday, then
  above normal temperatures return Tuesday and continue into
  next weekend.

- Hazardous conditions develop on Lake Michigan south of Two
  Rivers Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday where a
  Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 1 PM Monday to 10 PM
  Wednesday.

- The hazardous conditions will overspread the rest of the
  nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and possibly the bay of Green
  Bay Tuesday night and then continue Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A cold front was moving across northeast Wisconsin early this
afternoon. Temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s over
the far north, while temperatures were around 70 across the Fox
Valley east to the lakeshore. Scattered showers were noted across
north-central and far northeast Wisconsin as of 1 pm. The cold
front will continue to move across the area through mid to late
afternoon while the first wave of showers should move to the east.
Another round of showers across Minnesota is anticipated to move
across the north later this afternoon into this evening.

Back to reality on Monday with temperatures closer to normal with
highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s. The cool down will be brief
as above normal temperatures return on Tuesday and then continue
into next weekend. For Monday night into Tuesday morning, an
upper level disturbance will pass to the northwest of the area.
This feature will bring a chance of showers to the north. Tranquil
weather is expected Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night before the
next system approaches from the west on Wednesday. This feature is
more vigorous and should bring 50-70% chance of rain Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. Potential exists for a few
thunderstorms which are not anticipated to be severe at this time.
Beyond Thursday, confidence is lower on timing/location of higher
chances of rain from Friday into the weekend due to model
differences between the GFS/ECMWF/Canadian. Plenty of time to
sort out the details in the coming day.s

If you are a fan of cold weather, this week will not be it as
above normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday into the next
weekend. Potential for some locations to reach 70 degrees on
Wednesday. During the El Nino events, October and November are
likely to end up warmer than normal based on past events. So
far this month, we are averaging 5-8 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 647 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Areas of showers and sprinkles along with a few MVFR ceilings,
mainly along and north of Hwy 29, will continue this evening into
tonight as a cold front sinks into southern WI. Additional light
showers are possible on Monday, mainly across central WI.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected as mid and high clouds
continue to spread across the region.

North to northeast winds will remain under 10 kts tonight, with a
few higher gusts possible near Green Bay and Lake Michigan. On
Monday, northeast to east winds are expected, gusting to 20 kts
across east-central WI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Bersch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion