657
FXUS63 KGRB 131800
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect rain/snow showers diminish through this evening
  with minimal impacts.

- Dry weather this weekend into the middle of next week with
  temperatures warming back well above seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An amplified longwave pattern featuring ridging across the high
plains and a deep trough over the Great Lakes and northeast with
northerly flow across Wisconsin, resulting in cool, seasonable
temps. Scattered lake effect showers continue across northern
Wisconsin and along parts of the Lake Michigan shoreline, but expect
impacts to be minimal. These showers will diminish this evening as
high pressure approaches from the west.

Heading through the weekend, surface ridging will spread across the
Upper Midwest with dry weather, relatively light winds, and
seasonable temperatures.

For next week, mid level ridging will build across the Midwest ahead
of a broad trough overspreading the western US. On the backside of
the departing high, southerly low-level flow will develop, with a
warming trend expected through late in the week. Confidence is high
for above average temps, and the spread in high temperatures is
relatively low through mid-week. Highs likely will reach the 50s,
with NBM 50th-75th percentile max temps reaching the low 60s for
some areas later next week.

Confidence for dry weather is also very high through Wednesday under
the influence of the ridging. By late next week, southwesterly flow
becomes established, with global ensemble means showing precipitable
water values exceeding the 90th percentile. Precipitation chances
(30-40%) return by Thursday, but the warmer temperatures
suggest rain as the likely precipitation type through this
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Areas of MVFR/VFR stratocumulus continue this afternoon with a
few lingering snow showers across north-central Wisconsin and
rain/snow showers along the Door Peninsula. Patches of low
clouds will persist overnight, with the higher odds of MVFR
conditions across northern Wisconsin downwind from Lake Superior
and near Lake Michigan (>60%) and lower confidence south and
west. Trends favor increasing likelihood for VFR conditions and
gradually clearing skies beyond this TAF period as high pressure
builds over the region. Gusty northerly winds will subside this
evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LMZ521-
     522-541.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LMZ542-543.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion