202
FXUS63 KGRB 080353
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening across parts of north-central and far northeast
  Wisconsin.

- There is a 15-30% chance of severe thunderstorms (15-30%
  chance) and heavy rain (15% chance) on Wednesday afternoon and
  evening, primarily across central and east- central Wisconsin.
  Damaging winds and localized flooding will be the main threats,
  but isolated large hail and a tornado are also possible.

- Monitoring the potential for excessive heat early next week as
  high temperatures rise into the low to middle 90s on Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a weak
sfc trough across northeast Wisconsin early this afternoon.
Dewpoints have been creeping up this morning and are comfortably
in the low to middle 60s. Meanwhile, a weak cold front is draped
across western Lake Superior and central Minnesota, with upstream
convective clusters developing across the northern Plains that
will eventually influence our weather over the next 24 TO 36
hours.

Scattered Afternoon/Evening Storms: With further daytime heating,
instability is projected to rise into the 1000-1500 j/kg range
this afternoon over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Low
level moisture convergence will be favorable for pop up showers
and storms along a weak surface trough, with 3-8 PM being the
most favored time period. Brief wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and
heavy downpours will be possible with any showers today before
dissipating around mid- evening.

Wednesday Afternoon and Evening Severe/Heavy Rain Risk: Attention
turns to late tonight when the upstream cold front sags into
northern Wisconsin, bringing clusters of thunderstorms across
northern Wisconsin late tonight into Wednesday morning. This first
round should exit by late morning, but its evolution (coverage &
timing) will help determine the severe potential for late
afternoon and evening. There is potential for outflow to create an
effective front over central and east-central Wisconsin, but
considerable uncertainty exists how this will evolve. If the
atmosphere can recover, potential instability from 1500-2500 j/kg
and effective shear of 25 to 30 kts will support organized storms
from 3-9 PM. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but an
organized storm could also produce isolated large hail and an
isolated tornado. Locally heavy rainfall of 2-4 inches is under a
15% chance, with the greatest potential across central and east-
central Wisconsin.

Excessive Heat Potential Early Next Week: After the threat of
strong storms ends Wednesday night, the slow moving front sags
south on Thursday, leaving only light rain potential over central
and east-central Wisconsin. High pressure then moves across the
area on Friday through the weekend. By early next week, we will be
monitoring the potential for excessive heat. A potent sub-tropical
ridge is expected to build over the northern Plains and western
Great Lakes in the 95-100 percentile. There is a 60-80% chance of
850 mb temps greater than 20C on Monday and Tuesday, which would
equate to surface highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected late this evening, with increasing
mid and high clouds. Some patchy fog may develop for a time as
dewpoints remain the mid 60s in spots.

As a cold front slowly sags into the region, clusters of showers
and storms and lower clouds are likely to impact the region from
09Z-16Z, with an additional round(s) Wednesday afternoon/evening.
Continued to use TEMPO groups at all TAF sites to highlight the
greatest potential for storms, but timing details will need to be
fine-tuned as exact timing of the storms becomes clearer. MVFR
ceilings and visibilities (locally IFR) will be possible within
the shower/storm activity. Lingering showers and a few storms are
expected Wednesday evening.

Winds will remain mainly under 5 kts overnight, then become south
to southwest Wednesday morning, with a few gusts around 15 kts.
Winds will shift to the north and become variable Wednesday
afternoon and evening behind the front. Fog is likely late
Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......Bersch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion