886
FXUS63 KGRB 080400
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Forecast discussion for routine evening forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty west-northwest winds of 25 to 30 mph will develop Thursday
  afternoon.

- Patchy frost will develop early Friday morning across parts of
  north- central and far northeast Wisconsin as low temperatures
  fall into the 34 to 37 degree range.

- Unseasonably warm and windy conditions arrive Saturday and Sunday
  with inland high temperatures into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

- Rain shower chances increase to 40 to 50 percent Monday
  afternoon through Monday night as a cold front crosses
  Wisconsin. Much cooler temperatures in the 50s will follow for
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

The current surface analysis shows Wisconsin positioned between
surface high pressure building over the northern Plains and a cold
front shifting across the eastern Great Lakes. This high pressure
system will slowly settle over the western Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours. Broad subsidence and light winds will yield
generally quiet weather across north- central and northeast
Wisconsin through Friday.

Gusty Northwest Winds Thursday: A tight surface pressure gradient
combined with steep boundary layer lapse rates will drive gusty
northwest winds across the region again on Thursday. Momentum
transfer from 850mb wind profiles around 25 to 30 knots will
support surface wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph across central and
northeast Wisconsin during Thursday afternoon. Winds will quickly
decouple and diminish Thursday evening as the surface high
pressure center settles directly over Wisconsin.

Patchy Frost Late Thursday Night: High pressure centered over
Wisconsin Thursday night will promote decoupling winds which is
favorable for frost. However, some indications of mid and high
clouds overhead for large portions of the night. This leads to
lower confidence for issuing a Frost Advisory despite NBM guidance
showing a 50 to 90 percent probability of temperatures falling
below 37 degrees across the Northwoods, with Land O Lakes and
Crandon reaching near the freezing mark. Will let the next shift
take another look before issuing a Frost Advisory across Vilas,
Oneida, Lincoln, Forest, Florence, and northern Marinette
counties. High confidence exists that max temperatures recover
quickly into the upper 60s on Friday afternoon.

Unseasonable Weekend Heat And Strong Winds:
As surface high pressure shifts to the East Coast, an intense
upper-level ridge will build across the western Great Lakes,
triggering robust southerly return flow. Daytime high temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday will climb into the upper 70s and lower
80s across inland Wisconsin, approaching daily record high values
at some locations. Tightening regional pressure gradients will
drive gusty southerly winds of 30 to 40 mph, with NBM
probabilistic guidance indicating a 40 to 60 percent probability
of gusts exceeding 35 mph on Saturday.

Early Week Cold Front And Cool Down: A cold front associated with
a northern stream trough will traverse Wisconsin Sunday night
into Monday. Rain chances remain on track to develop post frontal
on Monday afternoon through Monday night. Mid-level frontogenesis
will increase 24-hour precipitation probabilities to 40 to 50
percent area- wide, though dynamic forcing remains progressive.
NBM probabilistic guidance indicates a 20 to 30 percent chance of
24-hour liquid accumulations exceeding 0.25 inches, with expected
rainfall totals generally under a quarter inch. Post-frontal cold
air advection will usher in a significantly cooler airmass for
Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping daytime high temperatures back
into the lower to mid-50s under partly sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period. Scattered
to broken fair weather clouds above 8 kft over north-central
Wisconsin should clear out overnight.

West-northwest winds are expected to increase again in the 15-17Z
timeframe on Thursday. Although not as gusty as today, gusts to
25 kts will be possible. Scattered fair weather clouds could also
develop over far northern WI (KRHI) during the afternoon with
cloud bases 5-6 kft. Otherwise, most locations will see an influx
of mid and high clouds above 10 kft on Thursday.

Winds diminish with loss of heating around sunset. Periods of
clouds above 10 kft are expected through Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1059 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

While winds have subsided this evening, west-northwest
winds are expected to become gusty again on Thursday. Gusts 20 to
25 kts are expected on Thursday afternoon. Small craft are urged
to exercise caution. After a period of light winds, south winds
are forecast to increase on Friday and remain strong and gusty
through the weekend. Waves are expected to build to 3-6 ft on Lake
Michigan from Friday afternoon through Friday night. Then south
winds to 30 kts on Saturday and Saturday night. Small craft
advisories will be required from Friday night through Saturday
night, and perhaps on Sunday as well.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion