587
FXUS63 KGRB 031123
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
523 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Next chance for widespread light snow/wintry precip arrives
  Thursday morning, lasting through Friday morning. Greatest
  chances for 1 inch of snow are across northern Vilas and along
  the Door Peninsula.

- Temperatures to be above normal throughout the week, with
  central Wisconsin seeing a chance at above freezing highs on
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure influence to our north continues to be prevalent
early this morning, with only a lake effect stratus deck parked
over the northern half of the forecast area. Combination of high
pressure under weak ridging then continues to result in dry
conditions and near normal temperatures through at least
Wednesday.

Precip chances... Synoptic pattern begins to re-amplify toward
the end of the week as low pressure deepens over the Hudson Bay,
bringing our next chances for light snow or a wintry mix. Trends
seem to be holding steady as most ensembles take the track of the
clipper further north, though the brief dry spell is still likely
to come to an end for most. First round of isentropically-forced
precip looks to develop along the leading edge of a swath of WAA
Thursday morning, bringing a short-lived round of light snow
area-wide. Potential exists for light rain to mix in with snow at
times across central Wisconsin where surface temperatures will
read at/near freezing, though suspect snow will be the dominant
p-type due to the shallow nature of the warmer near-surface layer.
Cold FROPA then occurs Friday morning, bringing with it a second
round of snow mainly to the lake effect belts. LREF grand
ensemble continues to show the greatest chance for 1 inch of snow
(30 to 50%) over northern Vilas and along the Door Peninsula as
winds veer to northwesterly. Could see a scenario in which some
freezing drizzle mixes in Friday morning due to a shallow
supercooled moist layer, though this will depend on efficiency of
ice production. For the time being, have limited NBM ZR wx type to
ZL. Winds also ramp up on Friday as the pressure gradient
tightens up along the front, with surface gusts to 25 mph possible
Friday afternoon within deeper mixing.

Temperatures... Near normal temperatures mainly in the 20s prevail
throughout the week, with some locations across central Wisconsin
even seeing a chance at above freezing highs on Thursday. A quick
shot of colder air arrives behind the passage of the clipper on
Saturday, though should moderate back to above normal heading into
the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR stratus continues to make a slow push toward the east-central
Wisconsin TAF sites early this morning, with any flurries
remaining north of RHI. Downsloping winds should then help
scatter out the low clouds from south to north throughout the day,
though this may take some time to occur. SCT to BKN mid clouds
then fill back in from the west toward the end of the TAF period,
though there may be a window in which all terminals see VFR
conditions late tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be
light and predominantly out of the northwest.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Goodin
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion