475
FXUS63 KGRB 132340
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
540 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect rain/snow showers diminish through this evening
  with minimal impacts.

- Dry weather this weekend into the middle of next week with
  temperatures warming back well above seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An amplified longwave pattern featuring ridging across the high
plains and a deep trough over the Great Lakes and northeast with
northerly flow across Wisconsin, resulting in cool, seasonable
temps. Scattered lake effect showers continue across northern
Wisconsin and along parts of the Lake Michigan shoreline, but expect
impacts to be minimal. These showers will diminish this evening as
high pressure approaches from the west.

Heading through the weekend, surface ridging will spread across the
Upper Midwest with dry weather, relatively light winds, and
seasonable temperatures.

For next week, mid level ridging will build across the Midwest ahead
of a broad trough overspreading the western US. On the backside of
the departing high, southerly low-level flow will develop, with a
warming trend expected through late in the week. Confidence is high
for above average temps, and the spread in high temperatures is
relatively low through mid-week. Highs likely will reach the 50s,
with NBM 50th-75th percentile max temps reaching the low 60s for
some areas later next week.

Confidence for dry weather is also very high through Wednesday under
the influence of the ridging. By late next week, southwesterly flow
becomes established, with global ensemble means showing precipitable
water values exceeding the 90th percentile. Precipitation chances
(30-40%) return by Thursday, but the warmer temperatures
suggest rain as the likely precipitation type through this
period.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 500 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Pockets of MVFR stratocu linger into early this evening, though
any sprinkles or flurries have largely come to an end. Lake effect
stratus from Lake Superior should continue to sink south
overnight into early Saturday morning, with highest confidence in
persistent MVFR cigs up near RHI. Signal for MVFR stratus sticking
around over the lake effect belts (mainly affecting RHI and MTW)
into Saturday afternoon, with eventual improvement to VFR at all
terminals by the end of the TAF period.

Gusty north winds continue to subside this evening, though should
remain elevated overnight along the lakeshore. Sustained northwest
winds should remain under 10 knots throughout the forecast period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion