846
FXUS63 KGRB 282150
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
350 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overnight and early morning below zero wind chills ranging from
  near 20 below zero in the Fox Valley to near 25 below zero in
  central and north-central WI through Friday morning.

- Besides non-impactful light snow showers or flurries at times
  through Friday, the next chance for widespread snow (20-40%)
  arrives late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Temperatures/Wind Chills...

Below normal temperatures are expected to continue across the
region through the end of the work week as mean northwest flow,
aided by surface high pressure, prevails. This will result in
overnight lows in the single and double digits below zero, and
afternoon highs in the single digits to low 10s above zero for
Thursday and Friday. Light northerly winds will cause the coldest
wind chills during the overnight/morning hours for tonight into
Thursday morning and Thursday night into Friday morning, with
values nearing 20 below in the Fox Valley and far NE WI, and
nearing 25 below in central and north-central WI. While these
lowest values are right at Cold Weather Advisory criteria, they
are not expected to be widespread or occur for a long enough time
period to justify the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory, but
will continue to monitor.

The upper-level pattern will evolve with ridging occurring over
the weekend, allowing temperatures to gradually rebound to near
normal (highs in the low to mid 20s) for the weekend and into
early next week.

Precipitation Trends...

Given the mean northwest flow in place, low-level moisture will
continue to flow over Lake Superior at times from tonight through
Thursday, producing light lake-effect snow chances (15-25%) along
the WI/Upper MI border. Minor snow accumulations of a light
dusting to up to 0.5 inches right along the border are expected
through Thursday.

A weak mid-level closed low is progged to slide south across the
Great Lakes region on Friday. In the low-levels, winds will turn
northeasterly allowing moisture over Lake Michigan to move
onshore and produce chances for lake-effect snow showers in east-
central WI (15-25%) from late Thursday night through Friday
night. While chances are low at this time due to mid/long range
model differences, anticipate these chances to increase with later
forecasts as details from hi-res models come into the picture.

A clipper system looks to move across the region sometime late
this weekend into early next week, providing the next chance for
widespread snow. Will continue to monitor how this system evolves
as there may be potential impacts to the Monday morning commute.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings between 1500-2500 ft AGL will continue
to impact all TAF sites this afternoon at times. Scattered
flurries will be possible but will refrain from including due to
the low coverage expected. Vilas County will see the greatest
coverage of light snow showers due to lake effect off Lake
Superior.

Clearing is expected this evening south and east of the lake
effect snow belt of far north-central WI. Have MVFR and IFR
ceilings continuing at KRHI for much of the night into Thursday
morning, though confidence is low on timing and IFR cigs as the
arctic airmass is so dry.

Northwest winds will remain gusty this afternoon with peak gusts
between 15-20 kts. These winds will subside to under 10 kts after
00Z as high pressure builds into the region.

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast for Thursday morning, though
some lingering MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible across the north.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk/MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion