112
FXUS63 KGRB 141706
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1106 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slippery roads, parking lots and sidewalks expected this
  morning as temperatures quickly fall well below freezing.

- Accumulating lake-effect snow and areas of blowing snow may
  cause localized travel concerns in north-central Wisconsin and
  northern Door County today.

- Widespread light snow late Thursday afternoon through Friday,
  with additional chances for light snow into the weekend.

- Much colder today. Temperatures moderate by Friday, before
  another reinforcing shot of cold air arrives this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Arctic cold front is dropping across the region early this
morning. Ahead of the front, temps were still in the mid 30s,
while falling into the 20s and teens just behind the front. Burst
of rain/snow has shifted to mainly snow as it drops across eastern
WI early today. Slippery conditions are expected on untreated
roads, parking lots and sidewalks with recent precipitation and as
temperatures continue to fall.

Lake effect snow showers flared up in wake of the front and as
sharp primary shortwave trough shifted through the area. Though
inversions are lower, lake EQL are around 5-6kft and given the
40kt in the cloud-bearing layer pushing the lake effect farther
inland than normal, along with favorable NW wind trajectories,
put quick Winter Weather Advisory up for Vilas early this morning.
Gusty northwest winds, over 30 mph at times, is also leading to
areas of blowing snow, reduced visibility. Lake effect will
gradually diminish after daybreak as inversions lower, but expect
locally hazardous travel to linger through the morning. May need
to extend the advisory, or at least issue follow-up SPS. Other
location that could see lake effect today will be northern Door.
Ice is thin on Bay of Green Bay, so there could be fluxes lead to
the lake effect with preconditioning plume off central Lake
Superior. Not expecting much snowfall (inch or two), but the snow,
along with gusty winds, blowing snow could lead to locally
hazardous travel. Prime time for the lake effect in Door would be
12z-18z based on forecast soundings. Though intensity of lake
effect fades later today and tonight, it will continue for both of
these areas. Elsewhere, went more bullish with clouds and
flurries as the wave drops through. Highs today will struggle to
reach the lower teens north, and should stay steady in the upper
teens, lower 20s elsewhere.

Next system will be dropping across the northern plains on
Thursday. Snow with this from warm air advection will arrive
over central and north-central WI by sunset, spreading over the
entire region on Thursday night. Additional rounds of mainly light
snow occur into Friday as the broad trough settles over the central
CONUS to the Great Lakes, with embedded shortwaves in the trough
focusing the times of more steadier snow. Overall, the setup still
favors widespread light snow of an inch or two from late Thursday
through Friday night, but there are signals that areas of a bit
more accumulation could occur. These details are hard to pin down
at this point. In general, NBM/LREF probabilities seem too low
compared a glance at deterministic models that are using 10:1
ratio for their snowfall projections. There will also be numerous
lake-effect snow showers over north-central at times.

Temperatures will be more down than up into next week. Readings
bottom out Today into Thursday, but then rebound on Friday with a
few spots around 32. Reinforcing shot of even colder air arrives
over the weekend and lasts into early next week. This will result
in sub-zero min temps and wind chills as cold as 10 below to 25
below zero during the late weekend and early part of the next work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1106 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will persist early this afternoon
as arctic high pressure builds into the region. MVFR ceilings
remain most prevalent over north-central Wisconsin (KRHI), central
Wisconsin (KAUW, KCWA) and far northeast Wisconsin (K2P2, K3D2) due
to lingering lake- effect clouds and scattered snow showers.
Elsewhere, VFR ceilings between 3000 and 4000 feet will gradually
erode in the downsloping areas as drier low- level air arrives.
Scattered to broken ceilings (2500-3500 ft) are expected for most
terminals through late tonight before eventually scattering out.

VFR conditions will then prevail for Friday morning. Mid to high
clouds will begin to increase from the west late in the period
ahead of an approaching clipper system.

North to northwest winds will be gusty this afternoon, with gusts
of 20 to 30 knots common across the area. Wind speeds will
subside significantly after sunset, becoming light and variable
overnight as the center of the high moves through.

Confidence is high that the clearing trend will take place for
the Fox Valley and central Wisconsin, but medium regarding the
timing and how quickly MVFR ceilings will dislodge from north-
central Wisconsin.

Outlook: MVFR/IFR conditions in light snow are likely late
Thursday afternoon and Thursday night as the next clipper moves
into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Forecast soundings and ensemble winds/gusts still on track showing
solid 35-40 kt gale gusts through late this afternoon. Winds taper
to 30-35 kts this evening. Even with an offshore wind direction,
high waves and freezing spray will occur, especially toward open
waters of Lake Michigan.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......MPC
MARINE.........JLA

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion