997
FXUS63 KGRB 142351
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
551 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy to areas of fog may restrict visibilities and impact
  travel late tonight into Sunday morning, primarily across far
  northeast Wisconsin and the lakeshore.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected Monday. Several
  record highs appear possible as high temperatures climb into the
  middle 50s.

- A potent system is expected (80-95% chance) to bring rain, snow,
  and a wintry mix to the area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
  Travel may be impacted by a wintry mix or accumulating snow
  across northern Wisconsin.

- A second storm system may bring additional chances (30-40%
  chance) for accumulating snow late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show the northern
periphery of cirrus from a storm system over the central Plains
reaching as far north as central Wisconsin. To the north, low stratus
continues to lift over far northeast Wisconsin and northern Lake
Michigan. A weak cold front resides across Minnesota with mainly clear
skies along the boundary, while a shortwave trough over southern
Saskatchewan and northeast Montana is spreading mid-level clouds
eastward. This weak front will cross the region tonight.

Low Cloud and Fog Trends: Plenty of dry air and a steady south wind
should keep low stratus in check through early to mid evening.
However, nocturnal cooling and a subtle backing of low-level winds
could cause stratus to redevelop and push fog into far northeast
Wisconsin late tonight. Short-term guidance is quite aggressive
with lower visibilities, but confidence is tempered by arriving
mid and high clouds, which may mitigate the fog threat over
traditional fog- prone areas. If fog does develop, the greatest
confidence for impacts is between 06z and 13z Sunday. Once the
weak cold front moves through Sunday morning, winds turning to the
northwest should push any lingering fog offshore, leading to a
period of sunshine and highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Record Warmth Early Next Week: The mean upper-level pattern will feature
a deep trough over the West Coast and ridging building into the Midwest.
Ahead of an ejecting Plains shortwave, 925mb temperatures are projected
to reach the 95th to 98th percentile on Monday. With decent mixing in
the boundary layer, highs ranging from the mid 50s to upper 50s are
possible across parts of central and east-central Wisconsin.
Several record highs look attainable. Confidence is slightly lower
across far northern Wisconsin where cloud cover may be more
persistent behind a weak front. Highs on Tuesday will remain well
above normal, generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Mid-week Storm System: A large surge of moisture will move into the
region Tuesday evening ahead of a potent low pressure system tracking
toward the Great Lakes. Critical thicknesses are forecast to sag south
over northern Wisconsin as heights fall, leading to widespread
precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a probability of mixed precipitation, including freezing
rain, from central to north-central Wisconsin, generally north and
west of the Fox Valley. While the NBM is less enthusiastic about
a wintry mix, it may be underestimating the low-level cold air
originating from a Hudson Bay high. Several inches of snow look
possible near the U.P. border (probability of 2+ inches ranges
from 30-40%). Probabilities for at least a glaze of ice has
increased into the 40-50% range between Rhinelander and Iron
Mountain. Minor snow accumulations look to continue into Wednesday
night as colder air filters in behind the departing low.
Hazardous and potentially icy travel is possible during this
window.

Late Week Snow Potential: Predictability is low that a second
area of low pressure will develop over the central Plains by
Thursday. Ensemble means point towards a more favorable track for
snow accumulations across the forecast area late Thursday night
into Friday. While specific amounts remain uncertain this far out,
this second system bears watching for more significant winter
weather impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fog will be the main concern for aviation again this TAF period.
Current satellite brings a narrow but focused band of low clouds
and fog off Lake Michigan into MTW but some signs show this
lifting again as the lake breeze effects from daytime fade, so
included only a couple hour mention for now.

Attention then turns towards tonight, where weak winds and
nocturnal bring a chance for fog back to much of the region.
However, satellite suggests the return of mid to high clouds
fairly early on which may help reduce fog potential. Will continue
to monitor but kept conditions optimistic for the current TAFs
across central Wisconsin.

At the same time, lake fog may again return from the Bay and Lake
areas, which may again impact MTW. Included a brief fog mention a
little further inland for ATW and GRB as well, but confidence is
not as high that fog will make it much further inland during the
overnight period.

Finally, a weak cold front will cross the region early Sunday,
bringing in drier air that should take lower clouds and fog out of
the area as winds shift to the northwest. Good flying conditions
then expected during the day Sunday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......Uhlmann

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion