586
FXUS63 KGRB 170512
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight into Saturday morning
  as low temperatures fall into the mid 20s to low 30s for areas
  inland of Lake Michigan. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for
  Door County as temperatures fall to the mid 30s.

- Breezy and dry conditions are expected for the weekend, with
  gusts of 20 to 30 mph each afternoon. Conditions will be
  hazardous to small craft.

- A prolonged stretch of mostly dry and warm conditions is
  expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Cold Tonight into Saturday Morning...A prevailing high pressure
system has brought cooler Canadian air over the forecast area. The
combination of the colder air, clear skies, and calm winds will lead
to chilly overnight/morning low temperatures ranging from the mid to
upper 20s for most locations north and west of the Fox Valley, with
low to mid 30s in the Fox Valley to the lakeshore. A Freeze Warning
remains in effect for central, east-central, and portions of far
northeast WI, and a Frost Advisory in effect for Door County, where
the interior and southern sections of the county will see frost. The
Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory will remain in effect until 9 AM
Saturday.

Dry and Breezy this Weekend...The forecast area will remain under
the influence of surface high pressure and weak mid-level ridging
for the weekend. Return southwesterly flow will also be present this
weekend with a tightened pressure gradient at times. This will lead
to breezy conditions, mainly during the afternoons with gusts to 20-
30 mph. Conditions will also be dry and mostly sunny with
temperatures rebounding a little, highs in the 50s for Saturday, and
low 60s on Sunday.

Next Week...High pressure and mid-level ridging will remain in place
for the first half of the work week, keeping conditions dry.
Although chances continue to decrease, guidance indicates the next
chance for precip would be sometime midweek from the southern tip of
a northern stream system. Mid-level ridging and high pressure then
return for the remainder of the week. This pattern will cause
temperatures to remain above normal and gradually warm each day by a
couple degrees, potentially reaching the low 70s for some spots by
Thursday of next week. With the return to above normal temperatures
and a prolonged dry period, will need to monitor fuels across
drought stricken areas of northern WI for the potential of an
increased wildfire risk.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday afternoon. Gusty
southwest winds will develop later this morning with
gusts to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. Low level wind
shear will develop around 00z from 250 degrees at 40
to 45 knots. Still expected some gusts at the surface to 20
knot tonight with some gusts approaching 30 knots during the day
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect on Lake Michigan and the
Bay through late tonight before waves subside early Saturday.
Another period of hazardous marine conditions is expected Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night as persistent southwest winds
increase, causing building waves. Additional marine headlines
will be needed, however, will hold off on issuing new headlines
until the current headlines expire.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ020-030-031-
035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ022.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Eckberg
MARINE.........Kruk

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion