436 FXUS63 KGRB 120759 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 259 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain continues this morning before a break in the precipitation arrives. Additional storms to develop in the afternoon. - A few strong to severe storms will possible this afternoon and evening, with the best chance in far northeast Wisconsin near the Upper Peninsula border. Gusty winds are the main threat. - Smoke will return over the weekend. An air quality advisory is in effect through Monday morning. - Next round of active weather arrives during the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 259 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Precipitation/Thunderstorm Chances... The meso-low that brought rain to the region overnight will make its slow departure to the northeast through the mid to late morning hours. Reduced the additional rainfall totals for the morning period a little, as the bulk of the more convective elements with this system have largely passed to our southwest at this time. The departure of the overnight system could bring a brief break to rainfall to the region, but a fast moving cold front and upper shortwave will follow closely on its heels, with some isolated convection already forming along the front upstream this morning. Model soundings for the early afternoon suggest hitting convective temperatures by around 1-3 PM, producing areas of 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. This will generally coincide with the arrival front in central Wisconsin, so additional convective development is expected in the afternoon. Deep layer sheer during this time period is around 35-45 knots, which would also serve to organize any potential storms. That said, the main source of uncertainty in the forecast will the degree to which we destabilize, given the lingering rain and cloud cover from the morning and the early arrival in the afternoon. Thus, while a strong storm or two over central or north-central WIsconsin can`t be ruled out, best chance for any stronger or severe storms will likely be further east where a few more hours of destabilization will be possible. CAMs point the main potential towards far northeastern Wisconsin in the afternoon, along the Upper Peninsula border, which makes sense. If severe storms form, damaging winds will likely be the main threat given the speed of the front and the potential for a more organized cold pool, but some brief hail will also be possible. Dry conditions then return to the region by the mid to late evening. Medium range models continue to show potential for some isolated to scattered convective activity both Sunday and Monday as a weak boundary crosses the region. Added some low pops to the afternoon and evening both days but would expect any rain to be low impact. Finally, the next widespread active weather system will cross into the region around the middle of next week along a cold front. Smoke... The passage of the cold front today will bring back northerly flow and smoke to the region. The bulk of the smoke will cross the region behind the front, giving a hazy appearance to the skies even when clouds are absent. The DNR has issued an air quality advisory that will last through Noon on Monday. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1041 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Areas of light to moderate rainfall and a rare rumble of thunder were reported across the forecast area late this evening. While most of the area still had VFR conditions, sporadic MVFR conditions were observed in the western and southern parts of the forecast area. Light to moderate rain will continue overnight, with ceilings and vsbys gradually dropping to MVFR/IFR. locally heavy rainfall may occur, along with IFR vsbys. Expect the rain to pull out late tonight into early Saturday, with gradually improving flight conditions during the mid to late morning. A cold front will move through the region on Saturday, reaching NC/C WI late morning and exiting eastern WI by evening. Kept the Prob30`s for thunderstorms at the eastern TAF sites for the 18z-22z time frame, as the front moves through during peak heating. Locally strong storms are possible. Gusty west winds will develop in the wake of the front on Saturday. Clearing skies and decreasing winds are expected by sunset. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann AVIATION.......Kieckbusch