211
FXUS63 KGRB 011920
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of thunder from
  late Monday afternoon through Thursday, peaking Monday night
  through Tuesday evening. Probabilities to reach or exceed 1 inch
  are 65-95% north and west of the Fox Valley, and 45-65% in the
  Fox Valley east to Lake Michigan from Monday afternoon through
  Wednesday afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, falling to
  normal to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Periods of Rain Monday-Thursday...Quiet conditions are expected for
the remainder of today and tonight with clouds increasing late
tonight ahead of the next system. This system is expected to bring
periods of light to moderate rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of
thunder between late Monday afternoon/evening through Thursday.
Southerly flow will usher in above normal PWATs around 1.5-1.6
inches from Monday evening through Tuesday evening, when the biggest
surge of moisture is expected. PWATs and rain intensity decrease
Tuesday night through Thursday, as low-level winds gradually turn
westerly, cutting off Gulf moisture. A few rumbles of thunder from
elevated storms are possible at times, mainly on Tuesday, given a
couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, but strong/severe storms are not
expected.

Given the prolonged with periods of rain, a washout is not expected.
But, the drought laden areas across the north could see some relief
as probabilities for 1 inch or more of rain are 65-95% for locations
north and west of the Fox Valley, with 45-65% in the Fox Valley east
to Lake Michigan from Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.
The probability for 2 inches or more decreased slightly from the
previous forecast with 25-55% for locations north and west of the
Fox Valley. However, additional light rain is expected after
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as well.

Temperatures...Above normal temperatures are expected through
Thursday, falling to normal on Friday through the weekend (highs in
the upper 40s to low 50s) following the prolonged rainy system.
Tuesday will be the warmest day with highs in the mid to upper 60s,
but the cloud cover and rain may cause slightly lower temperatures.
A few sites may be near/set new record high minimum temperatures on
Tuesday, November 3.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid and high level clouds are
expected to prevail across the region through late tonight. Cigs
will lower to MVFR after 13z Mon ahead of the next system
expected to bring periods of light to moderate rain, gusty winds,
LLWS, and poor flying conditions from Monday afternoon through
Wednesday.

Southerly winds will remain under 10 kts through the majority of
this TAF period. Southeasterly winds will then increase toward
the end of this TAF period, gusting to 15-18kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A slow moving low pressure system will move across the Great
Lakes Monday night into Wednesday morning, bringing a prolonged
period of gusty south to southeast winds and large waves on the
bay and Lake Michigan. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed,
especially for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters from Monday
afternoon through Wednesday evening. A few gale force gusts are
possible Tuesday on Lake Michigan.

Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to
near 25 kts as the system departs to the east.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk
MARINE.........Kruk

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion