500
FXUS63 KGRB 280806
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
206 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A band of snow (50-80% chance) to move across the southern half
  of the area today. Snowfall totals between 0.5 and 2.5 inches
  are expected for most locations, mainly south of Highway 29.

- Within this band of snow, a narrow 2-3 county wide band of
  heavier snow with 3"+ is expected. Current indications have this
  heavier band just south of the area.

- Below normal temps this weekend, then a slow but steady warming
  trend for next week as a more spring-like pattern sets up,
  resulting in at least a couple chances for rain or snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Today`s Snow Chances & Narrow Band of Heavier Snow: The
combination of increasing isentropic ascent, a coupled upper
jet, and 850-600mb FGEN will allow for a long, narrow band of snow
to continue to expand across the northern Plains and Great Lakes
today. All eyes will be on exactly where the 2-3 county wide band
will ultimately set up, as these bands are notorious at making
small, but impactful shifts. High-res models have a decent handle
on the band which is currently across MT/SD/ND/MN, but small
differences remain as it shifts eastward. High-res model consensus
has improved over the last few runs, with the previous outlying
HRRR shifting south/west. This makes sense with the dry air
advecting into the region from the north. So confidence has
increased that the heaviest area of snow will stay just to our
south. But any minor shift to the north will bring the northern
edge toward the Hwy 10 corridor. On the flip side, any southward
shift, with the dry air winning, would keep totals under an inch
with many spots not seeing any snow.

Have continued to use a model blend, with 1.0-2.5" of snow south
of Hwy 10 (current probabilities for 2"+ are 20-40% from Wisconsin
Rapids to Oshkosh) and under an inch elsewhere. Any 3"+ totals
would be confined to the stronger FGEN band, along with snow rates
around 1-1.5"/hr. Have delayed the onset of the snow a little, as
the drier air at the surface will take some time to overcome,
with most of the snow holding off until after noon. Still expect a
pretty sharp cut-off on the northern edge, with some weak forcing
north of the main FGEN band which could produce some very light
snow/flurries. Within the heavier band, the stronger lift within
the DGZ will produce snow ratios of around 20-25:1, leading to the
higher localized totals. Outside the heavier band, the snow will
still be on the fluffy side, but closer to 15:1. The
blowing/drifting snow potential looks very low as winds will
remain under 15 mph most of today and tonight. Will continue to
monitor upstream ob trends and the latest guidance on where the
band will track. As the FGEN and broad lift weakens/exits this
evening, snow chances will end.

One other small wrinkle in the forecast could be a lake effect
snow band over far eastern WI this evening into tonight. While
surface winds could shift more to the NNE, 850mb winds look stay
NW or N, which should keep any snow band just offshore.

Off & On Rain/Snow Chances Next Week: As the flow turns zonal,
there will be periodic chances for precip through the week. First
system arrives Monday night into Tuesday, with 40-60% chances for
mixed precip. Current temp profiles favor mainly wet snow, with
some impactful snow possible, but the degree of phases is in
question and will determine just how strong this system will be.
Another system is forecast to arrive later in the week. With
temps moderating, mainly rain is expected, but a little snow may
mix in over the north at times, especially at night.

Temps Warming Into Next Week: Below normal temps are expected this
weekend, with highs in the teens and 20s, as northwest flow
ushers in a batch of arctic air. Some below zero winds chills are
expected at night. Temps then will be on a slow but steady rise
next week as a pattern change occurs over much of the CONUS. The
more zonal flow will allow for Pacific modified air to spread into
the Great Lakes for most of the week. Highs look to be in the 40s
and 50s, with some 60s not too far to the south by the end of the
week. The warmer temps, along with the rain, will lead to a
shrinking snowpack, with most/all of the snow likely melting
across central and eastern WI. North-central WI has a foot or two
of snow on the ground, so that will be slower to melt. Some minor
hydro issues could arise if/where the largest snowpack exists, but
hopefully this pattern will allow for a gradual melt. The ice jam
threat will also increase for those rivers that are still frozen.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1059 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Cold front has made it across eastern WI. Northwest winds will
gust to 30 kts early, then diminish the rest of the night. LLWS
early on as well, before ending. Winds the rest of the TAF period
will be lighter, shifting from northwest to northeast.

Otherwise, VFR into Saturday morning. System brings snow to southern
half of WI Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. TAFs generally
MVFR to lower VFR. Latest trend is that bulk of steadier snow will
miss all the TAF sites to the south.

Snow ends by late Saturday evening, with MVFR cigs gradually giving
way to VFR cigs later Saturday night.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......JLA

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion