549
FXUS63 KGRB 261823
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1223 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Up to one half inch of snow accumulation is expected across far
  northern Wisconsin today. A few slippery stretches on roads and
  sidewalks are possible primarily north of a line from
  Rhinelander to northern Door County.

- Breezy south winds will usher in a significant warming trend for
  Friday. High temperatures will range from the low 40s over the
  far north to the lower 50s across central and east-central
  Wisconsin.

- There is a 40-60 percent chance for light snow on Saturday,
  mainly over central and east-central Wisconsin. Confidence in
  snowfall amounts is low due to dry arctic air in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show high
pressure currently departing to the east while a weak clipper
system tracks toward Lake Superior. Residual dry air in the low
levels has caused light snow to struggle while pushing into north-
central and northeast Wisconsin so far today. Surface observations
show partly cloudy to overcast skies across the region. Looking
upstream, a more potent area of low pressure is deepening over
Alberta and will be the primary driver of our breezy and much
warmer conditions expected for Friday.

Occasional light snow will pass across far northern Wisconsin
through late this afternoon as a moisture-starved shortwave
traverses the northern Great Lakes. While 0-2km humidity values
are progged to reach 90-100% near the Upper Peninsula border, the
overall lack of deep-layer forcing and moisture will limit
accumulations to around a half inch or less. The primary impact
will be the potential for slippery stretches on area roadways,
mainly north of a line from Rhinelander to northern Door. Snow
chances are expected to exit the region by early this evening as
shortwave energy slides east. Confidence is high that any
lingering impacts will be minor and focused primarily on the
evening commute in the far north.

South winds will become breezy on Friday as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. While dynamics and
moisture are much more substantial north of the area, the strong
warm advection will support a significant jump in temperatures.
Highs on Friday are forecast to range from the low 40s to low 50s,
which is well above seasonal normals. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are
anticipated through the afternoon. The cold front is expected to
cross the region Friday afternoon and evening, but given the lack
of deep moisture, a dry passage is anticipated for most locations.

Behind the front, strong cold advection will develop Friday night
into Saturday. Forecast soundings show gusty winds up to 35 mph
possible immediately following the frontal passage, though the
strongest winds may remain just above a developing low level
inversion. Attention then turns to a band of light snow forecast
to develop on Saturday. This band will be supported by clipper
energy and frontogenetical forcing in the left front quadrant of a
130 kt jet streak. While very dry arctic air in the low levels
leads to some uncertainty regarding snowfall totals, probabilities
for at least a dusting have increased to the 40-60% range across
the southern two tiers of counties. Generally expect any
accumulations to remain under a half inch, centered primarily
south of a line from Marshfield to Green Bay.

Quiet weather returns for Sunday and Monday as a strong arctic
high pressure system builds into the Upper Midwest. This will
result in a return to more seasonable temperatures with highs in
the 20s and 30s. The broad troughing across the eastern half of
the country is expected to remain relatively stable through early
next week before gradually retreating northward. Another system
may bring a 20-30% chance of light snow around Tuesday, though
model spread remains large at this range and recent trends have
indicated lower precipitation chances. Temperatures should begin
to moderate again by mid-week as southwesterly flow develops ahead
of the next potential system.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1102 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A weak shortwave and surface low near International Falls will
track across the northern Lakes today. Residual dry air has
limited snow reaching the ground, but occasional light snow
remains possible across far northern Wisconsin (north of a TKV to
SUE line) through late afternoon. This may briefly reduce
visibilities to MVFR.

Widespread MVFR ceilings between 2000-3000 ft AGL will persist
through the afternoon across central and north-central Wisconsin
(RHI/AUW/CWA) and parts of far northeast WI. Expect a return to
VFR at most terminals this evening as cloud cover decreases.
However, there is a 30-40% chance that MVFR ceilings linger
through the evening north of a Rhinelander to Washington Island
line so confidence is lower across the far northern parts of the
state.

Low-level wind shear (LLWS) will become a concern Friday morning
ahead of an approaching cold front, with the highest confidence at
RHI. South winds will become breezy Friday afternoon with gusts
to 25-30 kts.

Confidence is medium regarding the timing of MVFR clearing this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....MPC
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion