869
FXUS63 KGRB 091729
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy this afternoon, with highs reaching well into
  the 60s in central, northeast and east central WI. Record highs
  may be surpassed in several locations.

- Windy with a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow
  developing Tuesday into Tuesday night, changing to all snow on
  Wednesday. Snow and ice accumulations are likely. Hazardous
  travel Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Windy with rain and snow Thursday night into Friday. Snow
  accumulations possible. Another potentially impactful wintry
  system arrives later in the weekend.

- Runoff from recent rainfall and warmer temperatures may result
  in ice break-up on rivers and localized ice jam and river
  flooding into early this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A strong clipper system was moving through southwest Ontario early
this morning, with a cold front extending southwest into MN. This
system was bringing scattered thunderstorms to the MN Arrowhead
and western Lake Superior. Ahead of the front, southwest winds
gusting to 20 to 25 mph were keeping surface temperatures in the
middle 40s to middle 50s range.

A dry cold front will move through the forecast area today.
Compressional heating ahead of this boundary should boost high
temperatures well into the 60s over the southeast half of the
forecast area. Several climate sites are expected to set new
records (see the climate section below). Farther northwest, high
temperatures will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Gusty southwest
winds will become northwest in the wake of the frontal passage.

A strong low pressure system over KS Tuesday morning is expected
to track toward southern Lake Michigan by Tuesday evening, then to
far southeast Ontario by Wednesday evening. This track keeps the
forecast area on the cold side of the system, with potential for
rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow changing to all snow on
Wednesday. Probabilistic forecasts show a 40 to 70 percent chance
of 2+ inches of snow over north central and northeast WI, and a 40
to 60 percent chance of ice accumulations over the southern two-
thirds of the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
This system will likely generate strong NE winds in the Fox
Valley/lakeshore areas Tuesday into Tuesday night, followed by
gusty NNW winds Wednesday into Wednesday night. NBM probabilities
for gale force gusts on Lake Michigan have dropped to 20 to 40
percent. All of this leads to growing potential for Winter Weather
Advisories (for snow in the far north and a wintry mix/ice
accumulations farther south). Will monitor trends for possible
Gale Warnings too.

A strong clipper system is expected to pass through WI Thursday
night into Friday, bringing another round of strong winds,
potential gales on Lake Michigan (50-70%) and accumulating snow
(40-70% chance of 2+ inches and 30-50% chance of 4+ inches over
northern WI).

Another potentially impactful low pressure system approaches
later in the weekend. Model differences are significant this far
out, but significant snowfall accumulations appear plausible with
this system.

Ice Jam/Ice Floe Potential...Runoff from recent rain and
continued mild temperatures will increase the threat of ice break-
up early this week. This will result in susceptible rivers rising
to bankfull or even minor flood stage.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions hold through tonight as a cold front drops across
the area. A few snow showers may occur over far north-central, but
will stay mainly north of RHI. Lower VFR clouds expand on Tuesday,
with MVFR cigs from central to north-central WI. A swath of light
snow will form mid morning onward over northern WI, with drizzle
or rain on the southern edge (AUW/CWA). MVFR vsby is possible over
the north with any snow, including at RHI, but otherwise vsby will
be VFR with any of the precip.

W-SW winds shift NW this afternoon with some gusts 15-20 kts.
Winds then turn to the NE tonight after the front drops through
with gusts to 20 kts. NE winds persist on Tuesday, with gusts
20-25 kts, strongest for the east-central TAF sites (GRB/ATW/MTW).

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record highs are in jeopardy of being broken today, March 9.
Here are the current record high temps:

Antigo: 52 in 1930,1966,2025
Appleton: 61 in 2021,2025
Green Bay: 60 in 2025
Manitowoc: 60 in 2025
Marshfield: 62 in 2021
Merrill: 60 in 1977
Oshkosh: 68 in 1956
Rhinelander: 57 in 1977
Stevens Point: 63 in 1987
Sturgeon Bay: 55 in 2025
Wausau: 60 in 2021
Wisconsin Rapids: 68 in 1987

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......JLA
CLIMATE........Kieckbusch/JLA

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion