464
FXUS63 KGRB 050736
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
236 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures are expected for the rest of the week, with
  overnight lows approaching freezing. There is a 30-80% chance
  for frost from central to east-central WI Tuesday and Wednesday
  nights (highest in central WI, lowest near the lakeshore).

- Minor precip chances this week with little to no impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Surface cold front is southeast of the state now which will allow
winds to subside overnight, and marks the start of a cooler
pattern. The main impacts over the next few days will be
frost/freeze potential during the nights. There are minor precip
chances, but amounts and impacts will be minimal.

Temperatures:
Highs today will be about 15 to 20 cooler than Monday, in the
upper 40s to middle 50s. Similar readings persist on Wednesday and
Thursday, and then return closer to seasonal normals on Friday
and this weekend, in the upper 50s and 60s.

Overnight lows will be the numbers to watch, as temperatures
approach freezing Tuesday night through Thursday night. This will
likely warrant frost or freeze headlines for central and east-
central WI (these products have not yet begun for northern WI). NBM
probabilities show a 30-100% chance of reaching 36 degrees or
cooler Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with the lowest probabilities
in east-central WI near the lakeshore. Frost potential is less
certain Thursday night, with probabilities of 5-60% in central
and east-central WI. By the weekend, overnight lows look to stay
warm enough to avoid frost where the growing season has started.

Precip:
A few precipitation opportunities throughout the week, but impacts
from any precipitation will be minimal. Upper low will spin
northward across Ontario and Hudson Bay the next couple days,
which will keep northeast Wisconsin in northwest flow and send a
few shortwaves through the area. Today`s shortwave is likely to be
dry, with only the HRRR showing a few spits of precip. NBM
probabilities for 0.01" of rain are around 5%. Similar situation
on Wednesday, with a 10-20% probability of measurable precip
across northern WI. The potential is best on Thursday (20-40%) for
some measurable rain, again not amounting to much more than a few
hundredths.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Late this evening, strong cold advection is occurring behind the
cold front. High based fair weather clouds continue to move into
north-central WI with bases above 6 kft. A band of mid-level
clouds is slowly shifting southeast over northeast WI. Winds
continue to slowly subside and are generally gusting from 15 to 25
kts.

For overnight, expectations are that winds will gradually subside
to 10-15 kts.

Conditions will remain VFR as the fair weather clouds shift across
northern Wisconsin. Cloud bases will remain above 6 kft generally.

After a period mostly clear skies early Tuesday morning, fair
weather clouds will pop with daytime heating on Tuesday. Coverage
will be highest north and west of the Fox Valley, but ceilings
will likely be above 4.5 to 6 kft. West- northwest wind gusts to
20 kts can be expected on Tuesday afternoon before subsiding
Tuesday evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion