962
FXUS63 KGRB 100437
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected this
  weekend with inland high temperatures into the upper 70s to
  middle 80s. Record or near-record highs are possible.

- 60-70% percent chance for rain across the region Monday night.
  A few rumbles of thunder are possible.

- Another 50-60% chance for widespread rain late next week with
  much cooler temperatures arriving next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A tight pressure gradient is expected on Saturday as the region
will be in between a departing high across the northeast and an
approaching low developing over the northern Plains. This will
create gusty southerly winds across Wisconsin, allowing for robust
warm air advection. Winds are expected to gust to 30-35 mph
during the day as daytime highs soar into the lower 80s away from
the lakeshore. Closer to the lake highs are only expected to rise
into the lower 70s. Winds will subsequently weaken Saturday night
as the atmosphere decouples with a looser pressure gradient
leading to calmer winds during the day on Sunday. Despite less
windy conditions on Sunday, highs will be similar to Saturday.
Highs this weekend could approach or even break record highs both
days.

Precipitation chances early next week look to be delayed a bit as
the main energy from an approaching cold front looks to swing
through Monday night instead of Monday afternoon and evening. This
means relatively low (10-20%) chances for rain Monday afternoon
with a better chance (60-70%) Monday evening into the overnight
hours. Despite the relatively high chance for rain, the amount of
rain that is expected to fall is fairly minimal. The probability
for 0.1 inches or greater has risen a bit to 40-50% but not enough
that the QPF should be appreciably higher.

Another more widespread chance for precipitation may comes during
the end of next week as global ensembles show a deepening low
pressure system lifting across the western Great Lakes. Still a
lot of uncertainty with the details of this system, but this looks
like the best chance for a soaking rain over the next 7-10 days.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High based
clouds will continue to filter over the region through Saturday
morning. Ahead of an approaching warm front, a surge of mid
clouds will move across the area from the southwest to northeast
tonight with cloud bases around 7-9kft AGL. These mid clouds will
exit the region around 10-12Z.

Surface winds will be light southeast tonight below 10 knots.
Winds will turn southerly Saturday and gust to 10 to 20 knots by
mid morning through the afternoon on Saturday. LLWS is expected to
develop this evening and continue into early Saturday morning as
south to southwest winds gust to 30 to 35 kts just above the
surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Southeasterly winds will increase overnight, turning southerly and
increasing further on Saturday and decreasing slightly on Sunday.
Waves are expected to build to 4-9 ft on Lake Michigan overnight
through Saturday night. South winds to 30 kts are possible on
Saturday and Saturday night. Small craft advisories are in effect
through at least Sunday morning as winds and waves are expected
to slowly subside through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
MARINE.........Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion