175
FXUS63 KGRB 050759
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
259 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are expected through at least early Tuesday, with
  the exception of a stray shower this afternoon and evening in
  central and northern WI. Widespread shower and thunderstorm
  chances return midweek.

- Seasonal summer temperatures are expected for the remainder of
  the holiday weekend, rising slightly above normal for the start
  of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

This Morning through Monday Night...Despite a weak mid-level
shortwave/trough residing over the area today, a lack in instability
and prevailing northeast winds ushering in drier air should keep the
area dry today. The only exception would be a diurnally driven
isolated shower or a couple of sprinkles across central or far
northern WI during peak heating, but overall impacts would be very
low. High pressure and upper-level ridging will then build over the
area Sunday night into Monday night, keeping the area dry under
mostly sunny skies.

Rest of the Forecast...A weak shortwave riding the ridge looks to
move over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, which will mainly
bring showers and storms to northwest WI, but may expand into north-
central WI Tuesday afternoon. However, it will be competing with dry
air in the mid-levels. The better chances for widespread showers and
storms moves through the area sometime midweek with the arrival of a
stronger shortwave/trough supported by the RRQ of the upper-jet.
Models are indicating PWATS of 1.50 to 2.00 inches during the peak
of the precipitation, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall
and potential flooding. While there is still uncertainty in the
exact timing and placement of the shortwave and axis of heaviest
rainfall, agree with WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook that includes
the majority of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). As for
severe potential, instability typical of early July is anticipated
during this time making stronger storms possible; however, there is
still no signal of a higher end severe event within the statistical
suite of guidance.

Temperatures...Seasonable temperatures are expected for today with
high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points
will lower today, making for a pleasant summer day. Temperatures
look to be in to upper 70s and 80s for most of the week, with
dew points rising midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Expect dry weather throughout the TAF period as northeast flow
ushers in a drier airmass. Mid and high clouds will continue to
spread across the region on Sunday, though conditions will remain
VFR. Will continue to monitor the potential for lake fog
backbuilding into MTW late tonight into early Sunday morning,
though confidence was low enough to withhold vsby reductions from
the TAF.

Winds will continue to become light and variable overnight,
becoming east/northeasterly by Sunday morning. Winds should remain
under 10 knots throughout the TAF period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Goodin

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion