774
FXUS63 KGRB 171800
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
100 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and dry conditions are expected for the weekend, with
  gusts of 20 to 30 mph each afternoon. Conditions will be
  hazardous to small craft.

- A prolonged stretch of mostly dry and warm conditions is
  expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Through Sunday...High pressure shifting east allows for southwest
return flow to kick in. Net result will be temperatures not as
cold tonight as they were last night, with minimal chance for any
frost/freeze. Winds will be gusty, especially this afternoon and
on Sunday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph. High temperatures a
bit below normal today (normal highs are in the mid to upper 50s
now), but rebounding into the lower 60s on Sunday.

Next Week...High pressure and mid-level ridging will remain in
place for the first half of the work week, keeping conditions
dry. LREF consistent showing small chances (20-40%) for light QPF
late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Chances for more than 0.10
inch are minimal though. NBM probabilities for any precip still
low though, less than 10%. Overall pattern this week will be dry
with a warming trend. Highs early this week start off in the low
to mid 60s, but warm to near 70 by late this week into next weekend.
Low temperatures will mostly be in the mid 30s to lower 40s early
this week, warming to the 40s and even lower 50s later this week.
Winds will be light most of the week, but potential for SW winds
up to 20 mph increases Friday into Saturday ahead of stronger low
pressure system over the plains.

Due to recent rainfall, fine fuels are projected to be only
marginally receptive to risk of wildfires even with the warmer
temperatures. Will have to keep eye on this though given the
increasing amount of dead fine fuels with recent sub freezing
temps.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Winds will increase this afternoon into this evening, with gusts
to 20-28 kts, strongest at RHI. LLWS is expected at all TAF sites
tonight as 45-50 kt low-level jet shifts across the state. LLWS
will continue into Sunday morning. Expect only scattered high
clouds tonight into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Sunday evening,
except for Lake Michigan nearshore north of Sturgeon Bay where a
Gale Warning is in effect. Southwest winds gusting to 30-35 kts,
strongest toward open waters of northern Lake Michigan will produce
waves up to 6 to 9 feet on Lake Michigan, and from 3 to 5 feet on
the bay. The peak of the gales will occur on Sunday morning.
Conditions will drop below Small Craft Advisory criteria late
Sunday night into Monday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA
MARINE.........JLA

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion