777
FXUS63 KGRB 072031
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
231 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous small chances for wintry precipitation expected through
  Monday night; most notably potential for up to a half inch of
  snow over central WI tonight, and a light wintry mix over
  northern WI Monday afternoon and night.

- Moderating trend expected over the rest of the weekend, with
  above normal temperatures expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mid-level clouds were thickening over the forecast area this
afternoon, in response to upper divergence in the RRQ of an upper
jet, and widespread frontogenetic forcing. Despite increasing
radar returns over NC/C WI, no precipitation was occurring due to
a deep layer of low to mid-level dry air, as evidenced by cloud
bases of 9-12k feet and surface dew points still below zero.

Several small chances for wintry precipitation occur through
Monday night or Tuesday. For tonight, models have started to
converge on the best FGEN band of snow occurring southwest of a
line from Wausau to Oshkosh, but given the lingering dry air,
have kept pops in the 20-40% range and snowfall amounts under
a half inch. Late tonight into Sunday, attention turns to low-end
potential for LES near Lake Michigan, which will be limited due to
weakening instability. Small snow chances continue over northern
WI Sunday night due to WAA and upsloping SE winds.

A more dynamic clipper system arrives Monday afternoon and night,
accompanied by a cold frontal passage, short-wave trough and LFQ
of an upper jet. Models disagree on how much precipitation will
develop with this system, but agree that the best chances will
occur from far northern WI into Upper Michigan. Of particular
interest with this system is a substantial warm layer aloft that
will be in place at onset of precipitation. This should lead to
potential for a mix of rain/freezing rain/sleet, which should
change to snow as CAA and dynamic cooling quickly erode the warm
layer. This could end up being a sneaky hazardous travel event,
but for now, confidence only allows for 30-40% chances of a wintry
mix over the far north.

High pressure dominates our weather for the remainder of the week,
which will lead to mainly dry conditions.

Temperatures moderate into the middle 20s to lower 30s on Sunday,
with above normal temperatures in the upper 20s and 30s expected
for the remainder of the week. We could even see a few spots climb
into the lower 40s in our typical warm spots Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mid-level clouds were increasing across NC/C WI at issuance time,
and this trend will continue into eastern WI this afternoon. There
is still some uncertainty regarding snow chances tonight, though
the southwest third looks favored during the overnight period,
then along the Lake Michigan shoreline late tonight into Sunday
morning. Even so, snow chances are only 20-40 percent, and will
only carry flurries at AUW/CWA/MTW at this time. The main limiting
factor is a very dry air mass below 800 mb. There is some
indication that a VFR stratocumulus layer may spread inland off
Lake Michigan late tonight into Sunday morning.

Light and variable winds will become SE at 5 to 10 knots
overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion