172
FXUS63 KGRB 200439
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold wind chills as low as 20 to 30 below are expected
  across the area tonight through Tuesday morning. Cold Weather
  Advisories are in effect until 10 am Tuesday.

- A light accumulation of snow is remains on track for locations
  south of Highway 29 from late Tuesday night into Wednesday
  morning (chances 40-80 percent).

- Another wave of bitter cold Thursday night through this
  weekend, with wind chills of 30 below zero or colder possible
  Friday morning and Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Bitter Cold Tonight into Tuesday...

No changes made to the Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the
entire area through 10 AM Tuesday. The forecast remains on track
for the bitter cold air to remain over the area tonight with low
temperatures ranging from the teens below zero in north-central WI
to the single digits below zero elsewhere. Although relatively
light (5 to 10 mph), westerly winds will cause bitter cold wind
chills through mid-morning of 20 to 30 below zero. The coldest
wind chills, perhaps nearing 35 below zero at times, will be
across north-central WI. Some warming will occur on Tuesday as
low-level winds gradually turn southwesterly, allowing high
temperatures to rise to above zero at all locations, but remain in
the single digits for most.

Light Snow Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

A low pressure system is forecast to track from southern
IA/northern MO to Lower MI through this timeframe. This will put
southern WI on the northern periphery of the precip shield. Since
temperatures will be cold enough, all snow is expected. That being
said, the highest chances for measurable snowfall (0.1") are
focused south of Highway 29 with 40-80%. Chances for 1 inch or
more are focused more in east-central WI, based on the trajectory
of the low track, with values of 20-40%. Will continue to monitor
the track of the system to better determine snowfall amounts, but
impacts to the Wednesday morning commute are looking likely to
occur for locations mainly south of Highway 29. Additional light
snowfall is possible Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave trough
dives over the Upper Mississippi Valley, but the accumulating
snowfall looks to mainly stay south and west of the forecast area.

Extreme Cold Thursday night into the Weekend...

Another wave of bitter cold air is progged to drop into the region
following the aforementioned shortwave trough on
Wednesday/Wednesday night. This will open the door for Arctic high
pressure to drop over the area beginning Thursday, with the core
of its coldest air moving over the area from Thursday night
through Friday night (850mb temps as cold as -35C). Despite this
timing of the coldest air, bitter cold temperatures are expected
from Thursday night through at least Saturday night. High
temperatures on Friday and Saturday will struggle to rise above
zero. In fact, if the trend continues, there is potential for some
new record cold high temperatures to occur for Friday and/or
Saturday. However, the overnight low temperatures will not
approach records, but it will still be dangerously cold Thursday
night into Friday morning, Friday night into Saturday morning, and
Saturday night into Sunday morning, with forecast low
temperatures in the teens to 20s below zero. If these colder
trends hold up, we will need Extreme Cold Warnings for all areas
Thursday night through Saturday. Wind chills drop to -10 late
Wednesday night/Thursday morning and don`t return to readings
warmer than that until Sunday afternoon. Now is the time to start
preparing for this prolonged period of dangerous cold.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions were ubiquitous across the region this evening,
with mostly clear skies across much of the area. Some lake effect
clouds were noted across far northern Vilas County near the
Michigan border. Mostly clear skies are VFR conditions are
expected through Tuesday afternoon as high clouds stream in from
the west ahead of a clipper system approaching from the west.

This clipper system will bring snow into the region from west to
east Tuesday night as conditions deteriorate to MVFR. The best
chance for snow (60-80%) will be across the central and east-
central Wisconsin TAF sites. Plowing operations will likely be
needed Tuesday night with an inch or two of snow across central
and east-central Wisconsin. Only light snow or flurries with de
minimis snowfall amounts are expected across north-central
Wisconsin Tuesday night.

West winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected overnight but will
increase Tuesday morning and into the afternoon with gusts of 15
to 20 kts. Winds then back to the southwest Tuesday night with
speeds below 10 knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion