641
FXUS63 KGRB 030005
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
605 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of rain, gusty winds, and a few rumbles of thunder from
  late this afternoon through Thursday, peaking tonight through
  Tuesday evening. Probabilities to reach or exceed 1 inch are 65-
  95% north and west of the Fox Valley, and 40-60% in the Fox
  Valley east to Lake Michigan from Monday afternoon through
  Wednesday afternoon.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday, falling to
  normal to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Periods of Rain Through Thursday...
An active period of weather will move into the region today as a
slow moving low pressure system arrives in the region. This system
will bring periods of light to moderate rainfall, gusty winds and
a few rumbles of thunder this evening through Thursday. The
initial push of warmer air and moisture arrives this afternoon and
evening, bringing PWATS to near their climatological maximum for
the overnight period and much of Tuesday. Therefore expect the
initial period of moderate rainfall to occur tonight and again on
Tuesday. The higher moisture will get cutoff late Tuesday, as
winds shift westwards, so rainfall amounts are expected to be
lower for Wednesday and Thursday. Thunder may mix in at times
tonight, Tuesday afternoon, and again Wednesday afternoon as
soundings do indicate potential for some modest elevated
instability around a couple hundred J/kg. No strong or severe
storms are expected however.

Despite the prolonged period of rain this week, a complete
washout is not expected, especially as showers through the period
will likely be on and off at times by Tuesday afternoon. The
probability of at least an inch of rainfall from tonight through
Wednesday evening is around 60-90 percent for most of central,
and north- central Wisconsin, and around 40-70 percent for east-
central Wisconsin including much of the Fox Valley. The
probability of at least 2 inches remains a more broad 20-50%
chance across the region, mainly west and north of the Fox Valley.
Depending on which areas see some convective elements mix in each
afternoon (i.e. thunder), these areas may also get closer to the
two inch rainfall mark. A few lighter showers may linger late
Wednesday night into through much of Thursday, but remaining qpf
remains relatively light and showers are more likely to see breaks
between periods of light rainfall. Dry conditions do finally
return Friday and Saturday but another short-wave may bring a few
showers back on Sunday.

Temperatures...
The surge of warm and moist air will keep high temperatures above
normal the next couple of days, with 60s forecast for much of the
region. The influx of warmer air may also bring some new record
high minimum temperatures for some sites on Tuesday. A slow drop
is then expected for the latter part of the week with highs
getting back to the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 605 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A prolonged period of poor flying conditions is expected through the
TAF period as a large low pressure system spins over the region. An
expansive status deck has already over spread the region creating
low-end MVFR to IFR at all terminals. These low cigs will likely
remain overnight and through much of Tuesday. There may be brief
periods Tuesday afternoon where cigs improve to VFR, however,
conditions will likely deteriorate again Tuesday evening. Along the
low cigs expect on and off rain showers through Tuesday evening that
will bring periods of MVFR to IFR visibility. There is a low end
(~5%) chance for a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday afternoon,
however, confidence in any thunder is too low to include with this
TAF issuance

Winds will be fairly gusty through the TAF period, with south to
southeast gusts up to 20-25 kts through the end of the current TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 140 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A prolonged period of gusty south to southeast winds and large
waves on the bay and Lake Michigan starts today and lasts through
Tuesday into Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted
for the Lake Michigan nearshore waters from this afternoon through
Wednesday evening. A few gale force gusts are possible Tuesday on
Lake Michigan. The Small Craft Advisory may need to be expanded
to cover the Bay as well.

Winds will shift to the north on Thursday, possibly gusting to
near 25 kts as the system departs to the east.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......GK
MARINE.........Uhlmann

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion