510
FXUS63 KGRB 061051
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
451 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered snow showers and flurries across northern Wisconsin
  into early Friday morning. A light dusting of snow at most,
  though isolated bands of snow could produce locally higher
  amounts in Vilas County.

- Gusty northwest winds diminish Friday afternoon.

- Near normal temperatures on Friday and Saturday, then above
  normal temperatures return into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 949 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Chilly with scattered snow showers to start as cyclonic N-NE flow
across Lake Superior (delta t/s up to 16c) in wake of departing
low is supporting lake effect snow showers into far northern WI.
HRRR still showing embedded more organized bands drifting across
Vilas County tonight, so though most accumulations will be
limited to a dusting, a few spots could see up to 0.5 inch of
snow. Otherwise, a few sprinkles and flurries could occur into
Friday morning elsewhere. Showers late tonight into Friday morning
along Lake Michigan may get a boost as winds veer more NE and
edge of system to east backs in. Surface temps will be warm enough
to keep ptype mainly rain, but some light snow could mix in for a
time on Friday morning. Later Friday, increasing subsidence and
lowering inversions will spell end to most lake effect over the
north and showers along Lake Michigan will also come to an end.
Soundings and RRFS cloud projections point to scattered to broken
cu persisting well into the afternoon. Suppose there could be a
sprinkle or flurry over the north from these clouds. Skies then
clear out on Friday night as high pressure moves across. Gusty
winds from earlier today will slowly diminish into Friday
afternoon. Winds could still be gusty over eastern WI into Friday
morning though as the pressure gradient only slowly relaxes.

Saturday into next week...High pressure will bring dry weather
over the state into early next week, with another warming trend
beginning Sunday. Peak of warmth is Monday with a 40-60% of
exceeding 60 degrees south of highway 29. Average highs are in the
mid to upper 40s. Tranquil conditions will last until the middle
of next week. There are differences in strength of the upper
trough forecast to drop across the region by that time, but
ensemble blend (LREF versus the NBM) indicates some chances of
showers Tuesday night into later next week. It also could turn
cool enough again for light snow to return over the north. In
general though the pattern looks to remain warm and dry into the
middle of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 451 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Skies ranged from BKN MVFR across northern and eastern Wisconsin
to mostly clear west of the Fox Valley. Cold air flowing over the
Great Lakes will lead to some lake effect showers or sprinkles
across far northern Wisconsin and the Lake Michigan shoreline this
morning. Any clear skies should cloud in later this morning with
diurnally driven MVFR cumulus clouds expected to develop. These
clouds should then dissipate with the loss of daytime heating,
allowing for mostly clear skies this evening and into tonight.

North winds 10 to 20 kts will diminish later today. Light winds
are then expected this afternoon into tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion