505
FXUS63 KGRB 252343
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
543 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Bitter cold temperatures will continue through Monday. A Cold
  Weather Advisory is in effect late tonight into Monday morning.

- Temperatures will remain unseasonably cold through the work
  week with gradual moderation favored towards next weekend.

- The next week will be predominantly dry with the probability of
  impactful snow low. The most likely period for fluffy
  accumulations up to 1/2 inch will be Monday evening/night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Cold Temps Persist:

Temperatures have warmed across the region this afternoon, with wind
wind chills of 5 to 15 below zero where there was wind. Despite
clouds across much of the region mostly clear skies are expected
to develop overnight as a low pressure system across the Ohio
Valley continues to move northeast. Lows tonight are expected to
range from around 20 below across the north, to the single digits
below zero across the Fox Valley and lakeshore. A tightening
pressure gradient due to the aforementioned low passing through
the Ohio Valley and a high building in across the northern Plains
will cause winds to be a bit more gusty tonight, with wind speeds
of 5 to 10 mph for much of the night. This will once again send
wind chills plummeting to 20 to 35 below zero. Therefore, will
keep the Cold Weather Advisory late tonight into Monday morning.

The cold weather pattern will continue through the work week as
strongly meridional northwest flow persists across the Upper Midwest
with reinforcing surges of cold air filtering south through the
week. Ensembles support some gradual moderation in temps by next
weekend or beyond as mid-level heights begin to rise. It isn`t
until next weekend where the NBM probabilities for temperatures
greater than 20 degrees is substantial (greater than 50%).

Snow Chances:

With the cold, dry airmass remaining entrenched, impactful snow
potential will be low over the next week. The window with the
highest snow chances at this time is Monday night as a strong
shortwave trough drives southward across the Great Lakes. Although
moisture will be limited, GEFS/EPS/Canadian ensembles support medium
to high (50-90%) light snow chances Monday evening given the
deep forcing, so have trended chances upward. Although QPF amounts
are fairly light at a few hundredths of an inch, snow ratios in
this cold pattern are in the upper teens. Therefore, several
tenths of an inch of snow could be squeezed out of this system,
especially across the north were around 0.5 an inch of snow could
fall.

Spotty light snow or flurries cannot be ruled out with
subsequent shortwave trough passages through the week within the
northwest flow regime. However, any snow amounts will be very
minor given the moisture-starved nature of these systems.
Additional lake effect snow showers may impact portions of
north-central Wisconsin through the middle of the week with
northwesterly low-level flow.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The same stratocumulus deck that developed last evening
continue into this evening at KGRB/KATW/KMTW, generally
between 3,500 and 4,500 feet this evening. Satellite images
showed little change in the back edge, so probably won`t clear out
until after 06z. However, more clouds upstream will impact the
area. Across the north, CIGS were in the MVFR category but should
begin to clear out later this evening and overnight. Skies
will be mostly sunny then turn cloudy as mid and high clouds
overspread the region during the afternoon. The next clipper
system will bring a round of light snow to northern WI, mainly
north of Highway 10 with the highest probabilities along the
Michigan border. Accumulations at most places will be under an
inch. Low level wind shear is likely Monday evening, generally
from 240-250 degrees at 35 to 45 knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday
for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Eckberg

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion