597
FXUS63 KGRB 032254
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
454 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow late Wednesday night into Thursday, then again on
  Thursday night. Greatest chances (40-60%) for inch or more of
  snow north central WI to far northeast WI, and over Door
  County.

- Another batch of light snow (less than 1") Saturday night with
  greatest chances (20-30%) north-central and far northeast WI.

- Brief warmup on Thursday with highs at least in the low 30s.
  Parts of central WI have 60-80% of reaching above freezing.

- Falling temperatures on Friday, with readings back below normal
  to start of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

No widespread higher impact weather is expected through the weekend.
Some light snow is expected in a couple waves early Thursday through
early Friday. After brief warmup on Thursday, it will turn colder
Friday into Saturday. This shot of cold will not near as extreme
as what we saw at the end of January. Another system may bring
another chance of snow the middle of next week.

Precip chances: Clipper shortwave and sfc low crossing Manitoba
and northern Ontario will lead to warm air advection, isentropic
ascent over the region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Model soundings point to saturation in low-levels the farther
south one goes from Upper Michigan border region into Door
County. Break in the snow occurs later Thursday, then arrival of
stronger wave and primary cold front brings another round of light
snow Thursday evening through late Thursday night. Mid-level moisture
cuts decreasing late Thursday night does open door to freezing drizzle
potential portions of central WI to eastern WI. Soundings offer mixed
signals whether there will be any precip at all after the snow ends.
Nudged pops up some Saturday night as another clipper shortwave and
sfc trough track across the western Great Lakes region. Think the
GFS showing over 0.20 inch of QPF in northern WI is overdone (well
over the 90th percentile from LREF Grand Ensemble), but ensembles
and other models suggest a quick hitting batch of light snow (

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion