609
FXUS63 KGRB 281109
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
609 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain expected (60-90%) with a chance (15-40%) of non-severe
  storms this evening into early Thursday. Another chance
  (15-25%) for scattered showers this weekend, and again early
  next week.

- Record or near record temperatures this afternoon, with
  temperatures staying above normal into next week.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft expected Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
  the bay and Lake Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A few showers lingered across north-central and far northeast
Wisconsin during the late evening. These showers should come to an
end overnight. Some patchy fog was also noted across the north.
It was mild with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

For Wednesday, a warm front will lift northward allowing
for unseasonably mild temperatures for late October with record or
near record high temperatures. There is a 60-90% chance temperatures
reach 70 degrees south of Highway 29. Record highs for Wednesday
(10/28) are 70 at Green Bay (1946), 71 at Wausau (1986) and 78 at
Rhinelander (1927). Showers and scattered thunderstorms along a
cold front will move across the area Wednesday evening. Bufkit
soundings indicated around 500 J/KG of CAPE although 0-6 shear
values are around 20 knots. However, bufkit soundings indicated
strong winds off the deck (40-50 knots). The Day 2 Outlook from
SPC has the Marginal Risk of severe weather over west-central WI.
The showers should come to an end Thursday morning across eastern
WI as high pressure builds into the region. Dry and mild conditions
continue Thursday and Friday before the next chance of rain
(15-30%) arrives on Saturday and then lingers into Sunday. Based
on the model output of the Canadian/ECMWF low confidence if/when
rain would occur next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early this morning, a diffuse warm front is lifting north across
far northern WI. North of this front, IFR ceilings have lifted
north into the Upper Peninsula, while MVFR ceilings are generally
north of Merrill (RRL) and Antigo (AIG). Patchy ground fog has
developed where skies have cleared, with local visibilities down
to a quarter mile.

The patchy ground fog should lift by 13-14Z this morning. MVFR
ceilings continue to slowly shift east across western WI early
this morning. Therefore, will carry MVFR flight conditions at RHI
through 16Z before trending VFR. Have maintained low end VFR
conditions at AUW/CWA but trends will need to be monitored. After
a period of VFR ceilings during the afternoon, a cold front will
bring a broken band of showers and thunderstorms to the region
after 01Z Thu. MVFR visibilities and ceilings will be possible in
the heavier downpours and also for a short time period along the
front. Once the cold front passes, flight conditions should
improve relatively quickly.

Lastly, strengthening winds aloft to 45-50 kts will bring in more
wind shear between 00Z and 10Z Thu.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......MPC

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion