546
FXUS63 KGRB 240622
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
122 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and storms are expected to continue today. High
  end rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2" will be possible with
  any storm activity, mainly across central and north-central
  Wisconsin.

- Another round of rain and embedded storms is forecast Monday and
  Tuesday. Heavy rainfall between 1 and 2" will once again be
  possible.

- Rivers will continue to rise into next week following several
  additional rounds of heavy rain, acting to exacerbate ongoing
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region today as
a cold front tracks through the area. The rain will end from west
to east throughout the day, with cooler afternoon highs in the
60s. Any thunderstorms should remain well below severe limits as
instability will be de minimis. Rainfall amounts have come down
from previous runs across east-central and northeast Wisconsin as
the probability for over an inch of rain is 30 to 60 percent
across central and north- central Wisconsin, with less than 10%
across the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore. The probability for 2
inches or more has also fallen in these same areas, limited to
far western central and north-central Wisconsin at 10-20%.

High pressure will then bring dry weather to the region for the
upcoming weekend. A low pressure system emerging over the central
Plains will deepen as it tracks towards the western Great Lakes
region late in the weekend. Rain from this system should hold off
until Monday as it runs into dry air pumping into the region from
a Hudson Bay high. The rain from this system looks to fall from
Monday to Tuesday with another round of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Current NBM probabilities for more than 1 inch of rain is a solid
30 to 65% across just about the entire region, save for far
north-central Wisconsin, and similar to the previous run. The
probability for more than 2 inches has fallen a bit to 10-25%
centered on the Highway 29 and 10 corridor.

After this system clears the region, the middle to later part of
the week looks to be cooler with relatively quiet weather
expected. Some embedded shortwaves could bring a small chance
(10-20%) for light precipitation at times during this period;
however, the impact would be rather low as QPF amounts are only a
few hundredths. Despite this stretch of quiet weather, area rivers
may continue to rise during the middle to late part of next week
as precipitation works its way through the river basins.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 953 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to overspread the
forecast area overnight, but should have a tendency to weaken and
become more scattered as they move into eastern WI. Flight
conditions should deteriorate to MVFR overnight, but confidence
is a bit lower for IFR ceilings. Showers and a few storms should
taper off in our western counties Friday morning, and in eastern
WI in the early to mid afternoon. Conditions should improve to
VFR by early to mid afternoon as ceilings rise and clearing
occurs.

Southeast to south winds will continue overnight, then become
northwest as a cold front moves through late tonight into Friday
morning. Pockets of LLWS will wane overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Minor to moderate flooding continues on several rivers, namely
the Wolf and Menominee. While water levels have continued to
recede given a recent bout of dry weather, this is likely to
change from the rainfall last night into today with another round
expected Monday and Tuesday.

Per RFC forecasts and HEFS guidance, it appears that the
Menominee River could return to recent crests in major flood stage
this weekend into the middle part of next week with portions of
the Wolf River returning to major flood stage around the middle of
next week. Increasing snow melt from the Upper Peninsula would
lend some confidence for at least a return to moderate flood
stage. Additionally, levels on the Lake Winnebago system continue
to gradually rise, with minor flooding already occurring from Lake
Poygan to Winnebago and minor flooding forecast to occur through
the weekend.

Those living near rivers or streams should continue to monitor
the latest Flood Warnings and statements from the National Weather
Service in Green Bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
HYDROLOGY......Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion