911
FXUS63 KGRB 011814
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
114 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost possible at times across northern Wisconsin into
  early next week. Greatest chances for a widespread frost and/or
  freeze late Friday night and late Sunday night.

- Mainly dry through the middle of next week, with the lone
  exception a 30-50% chance of rain showers for northern WI late
  Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Rain slowly ending over eastern WI this afternoon. A few spots
have reached 0.50 inch of rain, but most locations have stayed
well under 0.25 inch. No rain over north-central and far northeast
WI, where it is desperately needed. Chances of rain moving
forward will be few and far between. Shortwave trough and
associated sfc low zips across the upper Great Lakes Saturday
night. An isolated light shower could form as early as Saturday
afternoon, but greatest chances (30-50%) will occur Saturday
night. Light QPF expected with only 10-15% chance of seeing
anything more than 0.25 inch. Next chance of rain, showing up more
in the deterministic models versus ensembles does not arrive
until next Wednesday. High pressure will be the primary weather
feature around through that time.

Temperatures/Frost: Main impact in the weather will be cooler
temps and frost/freeze potential. Risk starts up as early as
tonight. Better chances, by far, set up for Friday night into
early Saturday, then again Sunday night into early Monday. NBM
probabilities of seeing temps less than 33F surge to 50-90% mainly
from Rhinelander to Marinette northward. When raising the temp
threshold up to lower than 36, the risk for frost expands into
central WI (30-60%) Sunday night into early Monday. Possible that
frost risk could even expand toward the Fox Valley this time as
well, and late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the high
center drifts overhead. Headlines will be needed as we have not
stopped the Frost/Freeze program yet for the season.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Rain over eastern WI gradually will end by 21z. CIGS mainly will
stay VFR, though brief/patchy IFR-MVFR CIGS may linger. Mid and
high clouds will scatter out by this evening. A few CU may form on
Friday, especially north-central WI. Otherwise, it will be mostly
clear.

Light winds will become NW this afternoon, gusting to 15 kts in
wake of a cold front shifting through. NW winds will remain steady
at 5-8 kts tonight, with gusts to 15 kts returning at times on Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......JLA

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion