529
FXUS63 KGRB 110456
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1056 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A pattern change bringing above normal temperatures is expected
 beginning Thursday and continuing into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwest winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning
may produce light lake effect snow across far north-central WI
through this evening, but expect any accumulation to be minimal.
High pressure building over the northern Plains will then slide east
dominating the region through the end of the work week. LREF mean
500mb flow does show a subtle short-wave over the Upper Mississippi
Valley Thursday which does bring a ~10% for light snow to central WI
Thursday morning, however, the better chances for accumulating snow
are further west along the WI/MN and WI/IA borders. Another low-end
10-15% chance for light precipitation comes Sunday as a low
develops over the southern CONUS.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer than normal Thursday and by
this weekend there is a 50-80% chance for highs above 40 degrees.
There is a 30-50% chance that areas south of HWY 29 reach 50 degrees
by early next week. The warming trend will lead to a quickly melting
snowpack and deteriorating ice conditions which does raise the concern
for ice jams next week. Additionally the melting snowpack will lead to
an increase in low-level moisture increasing the possibility of
periods of fog this weekend and next week.

Long-range ensembles and ML models are showing early signals for a
more widespread precipitation event during the early part of next
week. Forecast soundings have a large spread in temperatures at this
time making it very uncertain if this would be a snow, rain, or
wintry mix even.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1050 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Clouds over NC/far NE WI have started pushing back south a little
bit, in response to a surface trough and low-level CAA. Don`t
think these will get a lot farther south, but additional low
clouds approaching far NW WI may make a run at RHI/AUW/CWA early
Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are expected at RHI overnight
through about midday Wednesday, and a brief period of MVFR is
expected at AUW/CWA Wednesday morning. A clearing trend is
expected during the late morning and afternoon as high pressure
moves into the forecast area. Otherwise, northwest winds will gust
to around 20 kts overnight into Wednesday, then decrease during
the late afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion