697
FXUS63 KGRB 120431
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1131 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near-record highs are expected Monday afternoon.
  Inland temperatures are expected to read in the upper 70s to mid
  80s.

- There is a 30 to 90% percent chance for light rain across the
  region Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, highest chances
  north. A couple rumbles of thunder will also be possible.

- Chances for more widespread soaking precip arrive late this
  week, though there is still much uncertainty. Much cooler
  temperatures next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Temperatures will continue to be at or near-record territory on
Monday as the area remains in the warm sector of a low pressure
system approaching from the central Plains. The only limiting
factor on Monday will be mid and high level clouds streaming in
from the west. However, models do clear out these clouds across
central and east-central Wisconsin by the afternoon. Wind are not
expected to be as gusty, with winds of 10 to 20 mph expected.

Precip chances...The best chance for rain still appears to be
Monday evening as the main surface low tracks through northern
Wisconsin coincident with the mid level shortwave tracking through
the region. The best chances (60-90%) look to be across northern
Wisconsin where the best moisture will reside with much lower
chances (30-40%) across central and east-central Wisconsin as a
dry slot tracks through the area. While the probability of
exceeding 0.25" of rain has risen to 50-80% across the north,
chances are fairly meager south of highway 20 at 10-30%. Embedded
non-severe storms remain possible as corridor of elevated
instability (~600 to 800 J/kg) develops along the front, though
any convective activity would remain elevated.

No further clarity provided for end of week system as ensemble
clusters remain divided on synoptic pattern evolution. As it so
often is, phasing potential remains a major source of uncertainty
as some models show northern and southern streams phasing over
the Great Lakes, while some show this occurring further east. As
it stands now, still looks on track to bring us our next
widespread precip chances, though this is subject to change as
models hopefully get a better handle on the upper pattern.
Consistent signal also remains for the first flakes of the season
mixing in across the north along the back edge of the system.

Outlook...More fall-like pattern sets up at the end of the week
into the weekend as arctic high brings below normal temperatures
from the Plains to the Midwest as well as a return to dry
conditions. 850 mb temperatures will tank to well below 0C as
northwest flow ramps up, resulting in high temperatures reading in
the 50s for most. Frost/freeze setup looks likely from central to
east-central Wisconsin as we approach the end of the growing
season.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight as mid and high clouds
stream in across the area. Some low clouds (MVFR to high-end IFR)
may drop into northern Wisconsin late tonight into Monday
morning. Recent model guidance does have these low clouds dropping
in at RHI; therefore, will continue with the MVFR BKN deck in this
set of TAFs. This deck is expected to lift north and mix out
around midday or early afternoon on Monday.

Expect southerly winds to gust to around 15 knots early this
evening before subsiding overnight. This will lead to LLWS across
the TAF sites with southwesterly winds around 35 kts just above
the surface. LLWS ends from northwest to southeast by 12Z Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures are shown below for
Monday, October 12:

High Temperatures for Monday, October 12th:

              Record/Year(s)     Forecast
Green Bay:    82/1918,2008          83
Wausau:       82/1995               83
Rhinelander:  81/1930,1995          79
Appleton:     81/1918,1943,2008     82.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski
CLIMATE........Kurimski

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion